104
FXUS64 KHGX 292330
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
630 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2025
- CONTINUE TO USE CAUTION WHEN WORKING WITH OPEN FLAME OR
EQUIPMENT THAT CAN CAUSE SPARKS AS DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS
THE AREA AND AVAILABLE FUELS CONTINUE TO DRY.
- HOT, DRY, AND MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS CARRY US INTO THE NEW
WEEK. A BRIEF UPPER DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO INCREASE CLOUDS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY, BUT A SUNNIER SKY WILL RETURN AFTER IT
DEPARTS.
- RAIN CHANCES WILL BE VIRTUALLY NIL UNTIL LATE THIS WEEK WHEN
MOISTURE DEEPENS ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED SEABREEZE
SHOWERS/STORMS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2025
FIRE WEATHER...
THE MAIN WEATHER IMPACT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE
THE PROPENSITY FOR FIRE STARTS DUE TO EXCESSIVELY DRY AIR.
VEGETATION ACROSS THE REGION NORTH OF THE COASTAL ZONES HAS BECOME
INCREASINGLY DRY (SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS) AND IS MORE PRONE TO IGNITION WHEN THE AIR IS WARM, DRY,
AND SUNNY. RH EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY IS FORECAST TO FALL
BETWEEN 30-35%, AND EVEN THE UPPER 20S FOR A FEW SPOTS WEST OF
THE BRAZOS RIVER. COASTAL ZONES WILL BE MORE HUMID, BUT RH IS
STILL FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO 40S RANGE.
THANKFULLY LIGHT WINDS WILL PRECLUDE AN ELEVATED FIRE THREAT AND
LIMIT THE RISK OF FAST-MOVING WILDFIRES THAT ARE HARD TO SUPPRESS.
HOWEVER PLEASE CONTINUE TO USE CAUTION IF YOU ARE DOING ANYTHING
THAT COULD PRODUCE SPARKS AND IGNITE A WILDFIRE.
STARTING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY, WE'LL HAVE BETTER ONSHORE
FLOW AND MOISTURE BEING TRANSPORTED INTO THE REGION. THIS IS OF
COURSE A DOUBLE-EDGED SWORD SINCE THE VERY DRY AIR HAS MADE IT
FEEL GREAT OUTSIDE (PARTICULARLY IN THE EVENINGS AND EARLY
MORNINGS), BUT THE LOWER WILDFIRE RISK WILL BE A NICE TRADEOFF
WITH THE INCREASED HUMIDITY.
TEMPERATURES...
DRY AIR RESULTS IN MUCH LARGER DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SWINGS OVER A
24 HOUR PERIOD, AND THAT IS CERTAINLY THE CASE THIS WEEK. DAYTIME
HIGHS FOR THE NEXT 7-10 (+) DAYS SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR. TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE MID
90S WITH EXPANSIVE MID AND UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD COVER MOVING INTO THE
REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH A QUICK-MOVING UPPER LOW. THE MOST
DENSE CLOUD COVER IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
MORNING, WHICH SHOULD LIMIT OVERNIGHT COOLING AND KEEP TOMORROW
MORNING'S TEMPERATURES FROM RISING TOO QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.
HOWEVER, BY THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON, SUNNY SKIES WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO JUMP INTO THE LOW 90S. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
SHOULD BE THE WARMEST TWO DAYS OF THE WEEK WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING
BUILDING OVER WEST TEXAS BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. OUR FORECAST
CALLS FOR HIGHS IN THE MID 90S, OR ABOUT 8-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. WE ARE NOT EXPLICITLY FORECASTING ANY RECORDS TO BE
BROKEN, BUT THERE IS A VERY LOW (~5% CHANCE) OF DAILY HIGH RECORDS
BEING TIED FOR HOUSTON AND GALVESTON ON WEDNESDAY.
TROPICS...
THERE IS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY IN THE WESTERN CENTRAL
GULF, ABOUT 370 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON. IT IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN WEAK AND MOVE SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE BAY OF CAMPECHE OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THE ONLY WEATHER IMPACT IT MAY HAVE ON OUR FORECAST
AREA IS SLIGHTLY ELEVATED WIND SPEEDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
TODAY AND TOMORROW. MEANWHILE, THE UPPER LOW ALLUDED TO ABOVE IS
FORECAST TO STALL NEAR THE LA/MS GULF COAST LATER THIS WEEK INTO
THIS WEEKEND. THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE THE POTENTIAL OF A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST WELL TO OUR EAST AS A MASS
RESPONSE OF THE STALLED MID- AND UPPER-LOW. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
ALSO REMAIN WELL TO OUR EAST AND NOT HAVE A DIRECT IMPACT ON OUR
LOCAL WEATHER.
RAIN CHANCES/SEABREEZE ACTIVITY...
THE FORECAST SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH THE MIDDLE PARTS OF THIS WEEK.
THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW
WILL BE MOVING OVER VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS. AS A RESULT,
IT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE VIRGA/ELEVATED RADAR RETURNS, BUT THE
CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS LESS THAN 5%. A STOUT HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN CONUS LATER
THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD CREATE A MORE EASTERLY AND
ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE WINDS WHICH WILL DRAW BETTER MOISTURE
INLAND. IT WILL ALSO ENHANCE THE SEABREEZE CIRCULATION AND SUPPORT
LOW RAIN CHANCES RETURNING TO THE FORECAST LATE THURSDAY ONWARD.
MOST PRECIP WILL BE DRIVEN BY THE SEABREEZE CIRCULATION. GENERALLY
SPEAKING, POPS ARE CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF I-20 FRIDAY, THEN
EXPAND NORTH EACH AFTERNOON THIS WEEKEND.
BONNETTE
AVIATION
(00Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 614 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2025
VFR PREVAILING THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. LIGHT ENE WINDS FOR NORTHERN TERMINALS FOR
TUESDAY WITH SOUTHERN TERMINALS BECOMING MORE E.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2025
GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND 2 TO 3
FOOT SEAS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. INCREASING EASTERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATER IN THE WEEK. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A
LONG EASTERLY FETCH THAT SPANS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF,
INCREASING SEAS, SWELL, AND WATER LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND. THERE
REMAINS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE STRENGTH AND LONGEVITY OF THE
FETCH. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SEAS COULD REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA BY FRIDAY IF THE FETCH IS STRONG ENOUGH.
SELF
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2025
REPEATED DAYS OF VERY DRY AIR AND PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WILL
CONTINUE A TREND OF DRYING AVAILABLE FUELS, CREATING AN
ENVIRONMENT MORE VULNERABLE TO WILDFIRE STARTS. EXPECT INLAND
AREAS TO SEE RH FALL TO THE 30-35 PERCENT RANGE EACH AFTERNOON,
WITH DRY SPOTS FALLING BELOW 30 PERCENT. EVEN AT THE COAST,
MINIMUM RH AROUND OR BELOW 40 PERCENT IS FORECAST.
PER TEXAS A&M FOREST SERVICE DATA, ERC VALUES ARE BEGINNING TO
CREEP ABOVE THE 75TH PERCENTILE, INDICATING THE BEGINNINGS OF AN
UNSEASONABLY DRY FUELSCAPE THAT EXTENDS BEYOND JUST DRY FINE
FUELS. MITIGATING THE DRY FUEL CONDITIONS WILL BE LIGHT WIND
SPEEDS. WHILE THE WEATHER WILL SUPPORT A HIGHER RISK OF WILDFIRE
STARTS, THE LIGHTER WINDS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE TO FIREFIGHTING
EFFORTS IN CONTROLLING ANY FIRES THAT MAY START. STILL, IT'S
REALLY JUST BETTER TO AVOID HAVING THE FIRES IN THE FIRST PLACE.
TO THAT END, AS THE WEEKEND ENDS AND THE WORK WEEK BEGINS, FOCUS
MAY TURN MORE FROM RECREATIONAL BURNING TO THOSE DOING WORK WITH
FIRE OR JUST USING EQUIPMENT THAT CAN CAUSE SPARKS. SO, THOSE
DOING LAND CLEARING WILL WANT TO USE SOME EXTRA CAUTION TO ENSURE
THEY ARE KEEPING ANY FIRE UNDER CONTROL AND HAVE THE RESOURCES TO
QUICKLY RESPOND IF IT GETS OUT OF CONTROL. THOSE WORKING WITH
EQUIPMENT THAT CAN SPARK - EVEN (ESPECIALLY?) THE ONES YOU MIGHT
NOT THINK OF, LIKE LOOSE CHAINS - SHOULD BE ENSURING THAT SPARKS
WILL BE ELIMINATED, MINIMIZED, OR AT LEAST CONTAINED TO NON-
FLAMMABLE SURFACES.
LATE IN THE WEEK, AS THE SEABREEZE BECOMES A LITTLE MORE
EFFECTIVE, RELATIVE HUMIDITY SHOULD NOT FALL QUITE SO FAR IN THE
AFTERNOONS AND WE MAY EVEN SEE THE EMERGENCE OF SOME ISOLATED
COASTAL SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE THAT,
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY DRY FOR MOST, AS RH IMPROVEMENT WILL
BE MODEST AND RAIN WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD.
LUCHS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 68 92 64 93 / 0 0 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 72 93 71 93 / 0 0 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 77 89 76 89 / 0 0 0 0
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BONNETTE
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...SELF
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