434
FXUS64 KHGX 301831
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
131 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1106 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2025
- CONTINUE TO USE CAUTION WHEN WORKING WITH OPEN FLAME OR
EQUIPMENT THAT CAN CAUSE SPARKS AND START A FIRE. DRY CONDITIONS
PERSIST.
- RAIN CHANCES WILL BE NEAR ZERO THROUGH THURSDAY, BUT BEGIN TO
RISE LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WHEN MOISTURE DEEPENS
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED SEABREEZE SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG THE
COAST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1106 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2025
SKIES HAVE RAPIDLY CLEARED TODAY FROM WEST TO EAST GIVING WAY TO A
DRY, SEASONABLY WARM DAY ACROSS SE TEXAS. THESE DRY CONDITIONS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN THROUGH THURSDAY AS DRY
VEGETATION AND THE DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL LEAD TO ENHANCE FIRE
WEATHER DANGER. PLEASE USE CAUTION WHEN WORKING WITH OPEN FLAMES
OR ANY EQUIPMENT THAT COULD CAUSE A SPARK. MORE ON THIS IN THE
FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.
BY FRIDAY, A MORE EASTERLY WIND WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF COAST
INTO SE TEXAS AS A STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES DOWN THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS EASTERLY FETCH WILL HELP BRING GRADUALLY
INCREASING MOISTURE TO OUR AREA THAT WILL PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO A
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
BEGINNING FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AND BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AREAS SOUTH OF I-10 WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO
SEE THIS AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS THE SEA
BREEZE WILL LIKELY NOT BE ABLE TO EXTEND MUCH FURTHER NORTH THAN
THE I-10 CORRIDOR. INCREASED MOISTURE ACROSS MORE OF THE AREA
NEXT WEEK MAY HELP BRING ISOLATED ACTIVITY FURTHER INLAND, HOWEVER
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER EAST TEXAS WILL LIKELY BE A
LIMITING FACTOR.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM (ABOUT 5-8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL) WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES RISING
INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. AND WHILE IT WILL
BE WARM, IT WILL STILL BE FEELING FAIRLY PLEASANT PER SE TEXAS
STANDARDS THANKS TO THE DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE EASTERLY FLOW GETS
ESTABLISHED WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S, BUT THE
HIGHER MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY MUGGIER CONDITIONS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.
FOWLER
AVIATION
(12Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 552 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY LATER
THIS MORNING WITH WIND SPEEDS REMAINING LESS THAN 10 KT. BKN TO
OVC UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE CLEARING OUT FROM WEST TO EAST. FOR TERMINALS
CLOSER TO THE COAST, WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO EASTERLY IN THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN SHORTLY
AFTER SUNSET.
BATISTE
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1106 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2025
LIGHT WINDS (DRIVEN BY THE LAND BREEZE/SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION) AND
LOW SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY. A MORE PREDOMINATE
EASTERLY WIND WILL ESTABLISH BY FRIDAY THAT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY NEED TO EXERCISE
CAUTION AT TIMES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS THE EASTERLY WINDS
INCREASE TO AROUND 15-20KT WITH GUSTS TO 25KT AND SEAS INCREASE
TO 4-6FT. CANNOT OUT RULE THE NEED FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FRIDAY OR SATURDAY IF THE HIGHER WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
FREQUENT ENOUGH. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS BEGINNING
FRIDAY THROUGH THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
FOWLER
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1106 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2025
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION. THERE ARE A FEW BURN BANS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE AREA:
MADISON, COLORADO, AND WHARTON COUNTIES.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. DAYTIME
RH'S ARE FORECAST TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE 28-35% RANGE FOR A GOOD
PART OF THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY, AND WITH DRYING FUELS,
THIS CREATES AN ENVIRONMENT MORE VULNERABLE TO WILDFIRE STARTS.
THOSE DOING LAND CLEARING WILL WANT TO USE SOME EXTRA CAUTION TO
ENSURE THEY ARE KEEPING ANY FIRE UNDER CONTROL AND HAVE THE
RESOURCES TO QUICKLY RESPOND IF IT GETS OUT OF HAND. THOSE WORKING
WITH EQUIPMENT (LIKE LOOSE CHAINS, ETC) - SHOULD BE ENSURING THAT
SPARKS WILL BE ELIMINATED, MINIMIZED, OR AT LEAST CONTAINED TO
NON-FLAMMABLE SURFACES.
MITIGATING THE DRY FUEL CONDITIONS WILL BE LIGHT WIND SPEEDS THAT
SHOULD BE FAVORABLE TO FIREFIGHTING EFFORTS IN CONTROLLING ANY FIRES
THAT MAY START, BUT IT'S PROBABLY REALLY JUST BETTER TO AVOID HAVING
THE FIRES IN THE FIRST PLACE.
A MORE EASTERLY FLOW SETS UP HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW FOR A MODEST INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS/RH'S AND LOW RAIN
CHANCES, PRIMARILY SOUTH OF I-10 THOUGH.
47/LUCHS/FOWLER
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 67 92 66 93 / 0 0 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 71 93 72 94 / 0 0 0 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 77 88 76 88 / 0 0 0 10
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FOWLER
AVIATION...BATISTE
MARINE...FOWLER
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