536
FXUS64 KHGX 012329
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
629 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1054 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2025
- DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY. CONTINUE TO USE CAUTION WHEN
WORKING WITH OPEN FLAME OR EQUIPMENT THAT CAN CAUSE SPARKS AND
START A FIRE.
- RAIN CHANCES RISE ON FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WHEN MOISTURE
DEEPENS ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED SEABREEZE
SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG THE COAST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1054 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2025
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TO PREVAIL TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
DROPPING DOWN INTO THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE. THESE DRY CONDITIONS
COMBINED WITH DRY VEGETATION WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS AS FIRES MAY BE QUICK TO START (MORE ON THIS IN THE
FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW).
INCREASING EASTERLY WINDS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND (DUE TO A
STRENGTHENING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC) WILL
BRING A SLOW RETURN OF MOISTURE TO THE REGION. SOME ISOLATED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BEGINNING FRIDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE COAST/SOUTH OF I-10 THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
BUT A DEEPER PUSH OF MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY
NORTH OF I-10 BEGINNING NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING ABOVE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID
90S AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
FOWLER
AVIATION
(00Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2025
SEABREEZE IS SITUATED FROM SUGARLAND TO THE I-10 CORRIDOR ACROSS
THE HOUSTON AREA. NOT CONFIDENT IT'LL MAKE IT ALL THE WAY UP TO
IAH BEFORE SUNSET, BUT IF IT DOES WIND DIRECTIONS MAY TEMPORARILY
BECOME A BIT MORE SOUTHEASTERLY THERE FOR A FEW HOURS THAN WHAT IS
INDICATED IN THE 0Z TAF PACKAGE (110 DEGREES). REGARDLESS, SPEEDS
WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AND BECOME MORE VARIABLE IN
DIRECTION OVERNIGHT...PROBABLY TREND N/NE LATER TONIGHT AND IN THE
MORNING. REST OF THE FCST IS ONE OF PERSISTENCE WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING. 47
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1054 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2025
DRY WEATHER, LOW SEAS, AND LIGHT WINDS DRIVEN BY THE SEA
BREEZE/LAND BREEZE CIRCULATION WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY.
THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING EASTERLY FETCH DEVELOPING LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THAT WILL PREVAIL INTO NEXT WEEK.
EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 15-20KT WITH GUSTS TO 25KT WILL BEGIN ON
FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
MAY BE NEEDED AT TIMES IF THE GUSTS BECOME FREQUENT ENOUGH. THE
INCREASE IN WINDS WILL ALSO LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN SEAS WITH WAVE
HEIGHTS GENERALLY AROUND 4-7FT BEGINNING FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
BEGINNING ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH NEXT WEEK. GREATEST
COVERAGE/HIGHEST CHANCES OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE IN THE COASTAL
WATERS, BUT SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE
SHORE/BAYS AS WELL.
THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS WILL LEAD TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL
TIDES BEGINNING SATURDAY (AROUND 3-3.4 FT ABOVE MLLW DURING TIMES
OF HIGH TIDE).
FOWLER
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1054 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2025
NO CHANGES FROM THIS MORNING'S FIRE WEATHER UPDATE:
ACTIVE BURN BANS IN SE TEXAS: MADISON, COLORADO, AND WHARTON
COUNTIES.
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH AFTERNOON RH
VALUES DROPPING TO 27-40% FOR INLAND AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY. FUELS
ARE GENERALLY DRY ON THE WHOLE, WITH OBSERVED 10 HOUR FUEL MOISTURE
BELOW THE 25TH AND 10TH PERCENTILES OVER PORTIONS OF SE TEXAS.
DRIEST FUELS ARE GENERALLY LOCATED IN OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES,
WHERE SOME LOCATIONS ARE FORECASTED TO SEE FUEL MOISTURE FALL BELOW
THE 3RD PERCENTILE. ON THE OTHER HAND, SPEEDS AND GUSTS WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY LIGHT DURING THIS PERIOD, FAVORABLE FOR FIREFIGHTING
EFFORTS AND THUS MITIGATING THE OVERALL FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
BOTTOM LINE, AREAS ACROSS SE TEXAS WILL BE VULNERABLE TO WILDFIRES
DUE TO THE DRY CONDITIONS. AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY, THOSE PREFORMING
LAND CLEARING SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION, ENSURING ANY FIRES ARE
CONTAINED AND HAVE CONTINGENCY PLANS SHOULD THEY GROW OUT OF
CONTROL. INDIVIDUALS SHOULD BE MINDFUL OF EQUIPMENT THAT COULD
CREATE UNINTENDED SPARKS, (I.E. LOOSE CHAINS) ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
WITH FLAMMABLE SURFACES.
EASTERLY FLOW AND RISING MOISTURE ON FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO IMPROVED
RAIN CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND.
03
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 68 93 67 91 / 0 0 0 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 71 93 72 91 / 0 0 0 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 77 89 78 87 / 0 0 30 40
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FOWLER
AVIATION...47
MARINE...FOWLER
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