604
FXUS64 KHGX 030529
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1229 AM CDT FRI OCT 3 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1121 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2025
- RISING MOISTURE WILL REDUCE FIRE WEATHER DANGER TODAY, THOUGH
CONTINUE TO USE CAUTION WHEN WORKING WITH OPEN FLAMES/EQUIPMENT
THAT CAN CAUSE SPARKS, ESPECIALLY IN DRY SPOTS.
- RAIN CHANCES RISE INTO THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE DEEPENS ENOUGH TO ALLOW
FOR SOME ISOLATED SEABREEZE SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG THE COAST.
- SMALL CRAFT WILL NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION TODAY INTO THE WEEKEND
DUE TO INCREASED WINDS AND SEAS. BEACHGOERS SHOULD ALSO BE AWARE
THAT THERE WILL LIKELY BE AN INCREASED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THIS
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT FRI OCT 3 2025
WE'LL START SEEING SOME CHANGE TO THE STATUS QUO TODAY AS RIDGING
BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS WHILE EASTERLY FLOW SETS UP AT THE SURFACE
FROM A COASTAL TROUGH OVER THE GULF. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS, RESULTING IN A RISE IN WINDS
AND SEAS. THIS EASTERLY FLOW WILL FACILITATE MOISTURE ADVECTION,
EASING FUEL MOISTURE AND THUS MITIGATING THE FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
FURTHERMORE, THIS INFLUX OF MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO
POSSIBLY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS. INITIALLY THESE RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE RESTRICTED TO MORE COASTAL LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-10
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THOUGH, AS THE RIDGE ALOFT FLATTENS WHILE
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO RISE, WE SHOULD SEE THESE SHOWERS/STORMS
REACH FURTHER INLAND DURING PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD (3-10
DEGREES OR SO), WITH HIGHS STILL RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S TO
MID/LOWER 90S.
03
AVIATION
(00Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 606 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2025
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST FOR MOST TERMINALS THRU FRI. THERE
MAY BE A FEW INTERMITTENT EXCEPTIONS WE'LL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON.
FIRST WILL BE ANY ISOLATED EARLY EVENING SHRA/TSRA THAT MANAGE TO
DEVELOP ALONG REMNANT STORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IN LA AND EAST TX.
SUSPECT THESE, IF ANY OCCUR, WOULD MAINLY BE EAST OF THE METRO
AREA - SO WILL NOT INCLUDE THE MENTION IN THE TAFS. SECOND THING
WOULD BE SOME OVERNIGHT PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE USUAL SPOTS:
LBX, CXO AND MAYBE SGR. LBX HAS BEEN A PROBLEM CHILD THE PAST FEW
NIGHTS, SO DECIDED TO INCLUDE SOME TEMPOS TO COVER THAT
POSSIBILITY. THIRD, WE'LL SEE SOME INCREASED MOISTURE/CLOUDS FRI
AS A MORE PREDOMINANT EASTERLY FLOW SETS UP. HIRES GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AROUND.
COVERAGE/IMPACTS LOOKS LOW ENOUGH TO EXCLUDE IN THE 00Z TAFS
THOUGH. 47
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT FRI OCT 3 2025
AN EASTERLY FETCH IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP TODAY WITH A COASTAL
TROUGH, BRINGING WINDS OF AROUND 15-20 KNOTS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS
OFFSHORE. THIS WILL USHER IN SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FEET AS WELL, PROMPTING
CAUTION FLAGS, WHICH WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL,
AS THESE CONDITIONS ARE BORDERLINE. THESE EASTERLY WINDS WILL
ALSO ENABLE WATER LEVELS TO REACH AROUND 3.0-3.4 FT MLLW AT HIGH
TIDE, IN ADDITION TO BRINGING A MODERATE/HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
ACROSS GULF-FACING BEACHES. AROUND THIS TIME, SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD THEN
RISE OVER THE WATERS HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK.
03
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT FRI OCT 3 2025
ACTIVE BURN BANS IN SE TEXAS: HOUSTON, MADISON, COLORADO, AND
WHARTON COUNTIES.
IMPROVING MOISTURE LEVELS ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY/THIS WEEKEND, WITH
AFTERNOON RH VALUES RANGING FROM 33-50 PERCENT INLAND. OBSERVED 10
HOUR FUEL MOISTURE SHOWS A FEW POCKETS BELOW THE 25TH PERCENTILE,
FORECASTED TO RISE TODAY INTO THE WEEKEND. ON THE WHOLE, THE FIRE
WEATHER DANGER SHOULD BE MITIGATED BY THESE CONDITIONS, THOUGH
CAUTION SHOULD STILL BE EXERCISED WHEN HANDLING OPEN FLAMES IN
ANY AREAS WITH PARTICULARLY DRY VEGETATION. BE MINDFUL WHEN
HANDLING EQUIPMENT THAT COULD CREATE UNINTENDED SPARKS (I.E. LOOSE
CHAINS). EXPECT FURTHER IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK.
03
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 92 65 91 67 / 0 0 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 91 71 90 72 / 10 0 10 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 87 77 86 77 / 20 10 30 20
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING
THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR GMZ350-355-370-375.
DISCUSSION...03
AVIATION...47
MARINE...03
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