882
FXUS64 KHGX 031706
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1206 PM CDT FRI OCT 3 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1116 AM CDT FRI OCT 3 2025
- RISING MOISTURE WILL REDUCE FIRE WEATHER DANGER TODAY, THOUGH
CONTINUE TO USE CAUTION WHEN WORKING WITH OPEN FLAMES/EQUIPMENT
THAT CAN CAUSE SPARKS, ESPECIALLY IN DRY SPOTS.
- RAIN CHANCES RISE INTO THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE DEEPENS ENOUGH TO ALLOW
FOR SOME ISOLATED SEABREEZE SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG THE COAST.
- SMALL CRAFT WILL NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION TODAY INTO THE WEEKEND
DUE TO INCREASED WINDS AND SEAS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE WATERS OFF OF GALVESTON BAY FOR THIS EVENING
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO EXPECTED FREQUENT WIND GUSTS
UP TO 25KT AND SEAS UP TO 6-8FT POSSIBLE.
- BEACHGOERS SHOULD ALSO BE AWARE THAT THERE WILL LIKELY BE AN
INCREASED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1116 AM CDT FRI OCT 3 2025
AN EASTERLY FLOW, THANKS TO A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS
THE EAST COAST, HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION USHERING IN
SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE (AS OF NOON, THE DEW POINT TEMPERATURES ARE
RUNNING AROUND 5 DEGREES HIGHER CURRENTLY THAN THEY WERE
YESTERDAY). THIS SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN
TODAY AND REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE START OF NEXT WEEK. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS, BUT AREAS SOUTH OF I-10 MAY SEE SOME SCATTERED
ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. AREAS
NORTH OF I-10 MAY SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM AS WELL, BUT
CHANCES ARE QUITE LOW (10-20%). AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER TEXAS BY MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK
WHICH WILL HAMPER THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, BUT DAYTIME HEATING
AND PWATS NEAR 1.6-1.9" WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO DEVELOP AT LEAST SOME
ACTIVITY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW OR MID-90S, AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID-70S. PLANNING ON ENJOYING
THIS SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER AT THE BEACH? BE AWARE THAT PERSISTENT,
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASED RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS ALONG GULF-FACING BEACHES.
FOWLER
AVIATION
(12Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT FRI OCT 3 2025
VFR EVERYWHERE EARLY THIS MORNING EXCEPT AT LBX, WHICH IS AT 5SM.
TOPLINE ALSO INCLUDES A TEMPO FOR IFR VSBY IN CASE OF A SUNRISE
SURPRISE, AND ALSO HAVE AN MVFR TEMPO AT SGR. LESS CONFIDENCE IN
THAT ONE, BUT PERSISTENCE WOULD SUGGEST A LITTLE BIT OF
RESTRICTION THERE AROUND DAWN IF/WHEN WINDS GO SLACK.
OTHERWISE, IT'S MAINLY A MATTER OF TRACKING THE DAILY TURNING OF
THE WINDS, AND HITTING THEIR WINDSPEEDS. WITH A BIT MORE PRESSURE
GRADIENT, EXPECTING A LITTLE MORE WIND WITH SOME MORE 10+ KT
MENTIONS AND EVEN HAVE A GUST MENTION AT HOU. THERE COULD ALSO BE
SOME COASTAL SHOWERS TO IMPACT LBX AND GLS TODAY, BUT NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA TO EVEN MERIT A PROB30 MENTION
YET. PERHAPS THIS WEEKEND...
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1116 AM CDT FRI OCT 3 2025
MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-20KT AND GUSTS TO 25KT. THIS INCREASE IN
WINDS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN WAVE HEIGHTS AS WELL WITH SEAS
OF 4-6FT EXPECTED BY THIS EVENING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OFF OF GALVESTON BAY OUT TO 60NM
BEGINNING THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING AS
WIND GUSTS OF 25KT BECOME MORE FREQUENT AND SEAS OCCASIONALLY
INCREASE TO 6-8FT. THIS ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT, AND SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION IN
GALVESTON BAY AND THE COASTAL WATERS OFF OF MATAGORDA BAY THROUGH
AT LEAST SATURDAY MORNING AS WELL. THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST
INTO AT LEAST MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK, BUT IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTER.
THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW THIS WEEKEND WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED
WATER LEVELS (AROUND 3.0-3.5FT ABOVE MLLW DURING TIMES OF HIGH
TIDE) AND AN INCREASE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.
THERE WILL BE A DAILY CHANCE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE COASTAL
WATERS.
FOWLER
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT FRI OCT 3 2025
ACTIVE BURN BANS IN SE TEXAS: HOUSTON, MADISON, COLORADO, AND
WHARTON COUNTIES.
IMPROVING MOISTURE LEVELS ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY/THIS WEEKEND, WITH
AFTERNOON RH VALUES RANGING FROM 33-50 PERCENT INLAND. OBSERVED 10
HOUR FUEL MOISTURE SHOWS A FEW POCKETS BELOW THE 25TH PERCENTILE,
FORECASTED TO RISE TODAY INTO THE WEEKEND. ON THE WHOLE, THE FIRE
WEATHER DANGER SHOULD BE MITIGATED BY THESE CONDITIONS, THOUGH
CAUTION SHOULD STILL BE EXERCISED WHEN HANDLING OPEN FLAMES IN
ANY AREAS WITH PARTICULARLY DRY VEGETATION. BE MINDFUL WHEN
HANDLING EQUIPMENT THAT COULD CREATE UNINTENDED SPARKS (I.E. LOOSE
CHAINS). EXPECT FURTHER IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK.
03
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 91 65 91 66 / 10 10 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 91 70 91 72 / 10 10 10 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 87 77 86 77 / 20 10 30 30
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR GMZ335.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
GMZ350-370.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR GMZ355-375.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT
SATURDAY FOR GMZ355-375.
DISCUSSION...FOWLER
AVIATION...LUCHS
MARINE...FOWLER
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