334
FXUS64 KHGX 081121
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
621 AM CDT WED OCT 8 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT WED OCT 8 2025
- ANOTHER HOT DAY ON TAP WITH SOME LOCATIONS SOMEWHAT CLOSE TO
RECORD HIGHS, BUT SOME RELIEF IS ON THE WAY.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WORK WEEK, INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING.
- WILL NEED TO MONITOR FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WITH DRY FUEL AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WIND SPEED ANTICIPATED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT WED OCT 8 2025
ANOTHER RELATIVELY HOT DAY IS ANTICIPATED. DAYTIME HIGHS PROBABLY
WON'T REACH RECORDS BUT THEY COULD GET WITHIN A FEW DEGREES (CLL
97/1892, IAH & HOU 96/1962, GLS 90/2017, PSX 93/2024). AN EXPANSIVE
SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS WILL TRACK EASTWARD WHILE AT
THE SAME TIME EXPANDING FURTHER SOUTH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRIER AIR
TO BACKDOOR INTO THE REGION AS WE HEAD INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. AFTERNOON READINGS WILL STILL BE ABOVE SEASONABLE NORMS,
HOWEVER OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL TREND FURTHER DOWNWARD INTO THE 60S
AND MAYBE EVEN SOME 50S IN THE PINEY WOODS THURS-SAT NIGHTS.
AS FAR AS RAIN CHANCES GO, THEY TOO WILL TREND DOWNWARD (NOT THAT
THEY WERE EVER HIGH). BUT AFTER A FEW SEABREEZE SHOWERS CLOSER TO
THE COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON, OVERALL CHANCES GET CLOSER TO ZERO
FOR ALMOST ALL OF THE REGION. MID LEVEL RIDGING IS FIRMLY IN PLACE,
AND LOOKS TO REMAIN SO WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. MAY BE ABLE TO ADD SOME
ISOLATED CHANCES CLOSER TO THE COAST MON OR TUE ONCE ONSHORE WINDS
SET BACK UP AND BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED...BUT DO NOT LOOK WORTH
ADVERTISING AT THIS POINT. 47
AVIATION
(12Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT WED OCT 8 2025
VFR EVERYWHERE BUT LBX, WHICH HAS SEEN VSBY DROP TO AS LOW AS
3/4SM THIS MORNING. THIS IS THE TOPLINE FOR ITS TAF, AND ALSO HAVE
A BRIEF MVFR TEMPO FOR CXO IN CASE OF A SUNRISE SURPRISE. HOWEVER,
BY 15Z WE SHOULD BE VFR FOR ALL SITES WITH ANOTHER DAY OF NE-E
WINDS.
I DO EXPECT A LITTLE MORE WIND TODAY AS A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES
THE REGION, WITH PEAKS THIS AFTERNOON UP AROUND 10 KTS. THE
INHERITED PROB30S FROM HOU/SGR COASTWARD MAY, VERY STRICTLY
SPEAKING, BE A TOUCH AGGRESSIVE. BUT I DO THINK THEY'RE USEFUL IN
HIGHLIGHTING WHERE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL
BE AND WILL KEEP THEM EVEN IF A "TRUE" POP IS MAYBE CLOSER TO 20
OR SO? WHILE WINDS WILL SLACK OFF THIS EVENING, THEY MAY STAY UP
ENOUGH TO STAVE OFF FOG AT MOST PLACES, AND SO HAVE ONLY A LIGHT
MENTION AT LBX.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT WED OCT 8 2025
ENE-E WINDS WILL BE RAMPING UPWARD TODAY INTO FRI AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN RIDGING TO THE NORTH AND LOWER
PRESSURES OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AREA. MIGHT NEED SOME CAUTION
FLAGS BY LATE TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY A COMBO OF CAUTION/ADVISORY FLAGS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS SPEEDS GET INTO THE 15-25KT RANGE AND SEAS
BUILD TO 4-7FT. RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO INCREASE ALONG AREA
BEACHES DURING THAT TIME PERIOD AND WOULD ANTICIPATE SOME STATEMENTS
FOR THOSE TOO.
COMBINATION OF FAVORABLE EASTERLY FETCH AND MOON PHASE WILL DRIVE
WATER LEVELS/TIDES HIGHER THAN NORMAL. PETSS GUIDANCE SHOWS LEVELS
PEAKING NEAR 3.5FT MLLW AROUND HIGH TIDE TIMES TONIGHT AND 3.7-4.FT
MLLW THURS AND FRIDAY EVENINGS. WE START SEEING SOME COASTAL FLOOD
ISSUES AROUND 3.7FT AT THE LOWER SPOTS, AND SLIGHTLY MORE ISSUES
ONCE THEY GET TO 4.0FT AND ABOVE. RESIDENTS BETWEEN THE BOLIVAR
PENINSULA SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR POTENTIAL COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY ISSUANCES SHOULD THE FORECAST REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME.
IMPROVED CONDITIONS (WINDS, SEAS, TIDES) SHOULD GRADUALLY BE
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS. 47
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT WED OCT 8 2025
THOUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK FORECAST RH'S WILL BE ABOVE RED FLAG
WARNING CRITERIA, BUT IT SHOULD BE NOTED FUELS REMAIN DRY. WIND
SPEEDS WILL HOWEVER INCREASE. CONDITIONS WILL BE A LITTLE DIFFERENT
THAN WHAT WE SAW LAST WEEK (LOW RH'S & LIGHT WINDS FAVORING
FAVORABLE STARTS BUT SLOWER SPREADS). THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL
GENERALLY FEATURE RH'S IN THE 28-38% AND WINDS IN THE 10-20MPH
RANGE. THIS WOULD TEND TO FAVOR SLOWER STARTS, BUT FASTER SPREADING
OF ANYTHING THAT DOES. THE TEXAS A&M FOREST SERVICE IS FORECASTING A
MODERATE-HIGH FIRE DANGER RATING. PLEASE EXERCISE CAUTION WHEN
WORKING WITH OPEN FLAMES/EQUIPMENT THAT CAN CAUSE SPARKS, ESPECIALLY
IN DRY SPOTS. 47
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 94 69 92 63 / 0 0 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 94 72 91 66 / 20 10 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 89 77 87 73 / 20 20 10 0
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...47
AVIATION...LUCHS
MARINE...47
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