602
FXUS64 KHGX 101811
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
111 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2025
- INCREASED RISK OF FIRES THROUGH SATURDAY WITH LOW HUMIDITIES IN
PLACE.
- COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY THIS EVENING FOR THE BARRIER ISLAND DUE
TO ABOVE NORMAL WATER LEVELS.
- NO RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2025
MID-UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER MEXICO AND TEXAS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE, RESULTING IN VERY LOW CHANCES
FOR RAIN OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THE HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S INLAND AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG
THE COASTS. THE LOWS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S OVER THE BRAZOS VALLEY AND PINEY WOODS REGION,
THE LOWER TO MID 60S FOR THE REST OF THE INLAND AREAS, AND IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ALONG THE COASTS. DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE
TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY, GIVING US
DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND...PERFECT FOR AN EVENING SUNSET OR AN EARLY MORNING
SUNRISE STROLL. BUT BE AWARE THAT LOW MOISTURE LEVELS WILL ALSO
LEAD TO AN ELEVATED RISK FOR FIRES.
BY TUESDAY, MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL RISE TO 590-593 DAMS WHILE
SUNNY SKIES PERSIST, LEADING TO WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE HIGHS
TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE BACK INTO THE LOWER
90S FOR MUCH OF THE INLAND AREAS AND IN THE UPPER 80S OVER THE
COASTS, WHICH IS ROUGHLY BETWEEN 6 AND 11 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
MOST OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE HINTING AT A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING INTO
THE TEXAS COASTLINE FROM THE GULF SOMETIME LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE WOULD WEAKEN THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE,
HOWEVER, IS IT UNCERTAIN AS TO WHETHER OR NOT IT WILL BRING US ANY
CHANCE FOR RAIN. AT THIS TIME THE NBM IS KEEPING SOUTHEAST TEXAS
FAIRLY DRY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT CONDITIONS MAY CHANGE AS WE
NEAR THE END OF NEXT WEEK. FINGERS CROSSED FOR SOME RAIN :).
COTTO
AVIATION
(12Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2025
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES WITH VFR PREVAILING THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE NE DURING THE DAY, BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. NE WINDS WILL RETURN DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2025
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS EXPECTED
THROUGH SATURDAY. WATER LEVELS WILL BE ABOUT 3.5-4.0 ABOVE MLLW
DURING HIGH TIDE, THUS, A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE BARRIER ISLANDS FOR THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY SAT
MORNING.
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, BUT NORTHEAST
TO EAST WINDS RETURN TUESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. THERE IS
A VERY LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
COTTO
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2025
DAYTIME MINIMUM RH'S SHOULD BE AROUND 25% INLAND AND 30-40$ COAST
TODAY. WINDS WILL BELOW RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA. THAT SAID, FUELS
REMAIN DRY AND CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FIRE STARTS SHOULD
INITIATION OCCUR. THE TEXAS A&M FOREST SERVICE FIRE DANGER INDEX IS
IN THE HIGH-EXTREME TERRITORY FOR MOST OF THE AREA TODAY. RH'S
SHOULD BE JUST A TOUCH HIGHER ON SATURDAY, BUT STILL RELATIVELY LOW
ALL THINGS CONSIDERED. PLEASE EXERCISE CAUTION WHEN WORKING WITH
OPEN FLAMES/EQUIPMENT THAT CAN CAUSE SPARKS, ESPECIALLY IN DRY
SPOTS. 47
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 90 59 90 61 / 0 0 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 90 64 89 66 / 0 0 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 87 73 85 74 / 0 0 0 0
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM CDT
SATURDAY FOR TXZ436>439.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ350-
355-370-375.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR GMZ370-375.
DISCUSSION...COTTO
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...COTTO
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