412
FXUS64 KHGX 112339
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
639 PM CDT SAT OCT 11 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CDT SAT OCT 11 2025
- RISK OF FIRES CONTINUES THIS WEEKEND WITH LOW DAYTIME
HUMIDITIES IN PLACE.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.
- NO RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CDT SAT OCT 11 2025
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THIS FORECAST PACKAGE FROM THE PREVIOUS
ONE AS THE MID-UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER
MEXICO AND TEXAS THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL
DOMINATE THE LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX, LIMITING
RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THE HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S INLAND AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE COASTS,
WHILE THE LOWS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT REMAIN IN THE 60S INLAND
AND THE LOWER TO MID 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTS. SADLY, THESE
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL AROUND 4-9 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
WEEKEND. GOES TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY MEASURED VALUES
BETWEEN 0.8-1.0 INCHES AROUND NOON TODAY, AND WHILE THIS AIRMASS
WILL GIVE US SOME COMFORT FROM THE HEAT DURING THE EVENINGS AND
EARLY MORNINGS, IT WILL ALSO LEAD TO AN ELEVATED FIRE RISK.
MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL RISE TO 590-593 DAMS DURING THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER CENTRAL TX. SUNNY
SKIES, SOUTHEAST FLOW, AND AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
COULD LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES, WITH MORE INLAND AREAS SEEING
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S - ROUGHLY BETWEEN 6-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
GLOBAL MODELS STILL HINT AT THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING IN
FROM THE GULF, BUT NOW HAS IT MOVING INTO THE EASTERN COASTS OF
MEXICO SOMETIME LATE WEDNESDAY, MOVING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN TX
ON THURSDAY MORNING, AND THEN OVER SOUTHEASTERN TX AS A TROUGH
LATER ON THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WE MIGHT ALSO HAVE A
BACKDOOR FRONT STALL TO OUR EAST OR NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY. IT IS
STILL TOO EARLY TO KNOW HOW MUCH RAIN WE MAY GET FROM THESE
FEATURES, BUT NBM IS STARTING TO BRING IN SOME SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES
STARTING OVER THE GULF WATERS LATE THURSDAY AND THEN EXPANDING
INLAND ON FRIDAY. GIVEN THAT IT IS NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD, EXPECT SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THIS FORECAST AS WE NEAR
THE END OF THE WEEK. STAY TUNED! :)
COTTO
AVIATION
(00Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT SAT OCT 11 2025
VFR FOR THE NEXT 30+ HOURS AT MOST OF THE TERMINALS. WOULDN'T BE
OVERLY SURPRISED TO SEE SOME PATCHY LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
FOG W/SW OF THE METRO AREA. 47
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CDT SAT OCT 11 2025
LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH EARLY TODAY, BECOMING ONSHORE TONIGHT
AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY. EAST NORTHEAST WINDS RETURN TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AND THEN BACK TO ONSHORE THURSDAY INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. WATER LEVELS WILL BE RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL DUE IN PART TO
THE MOON PHASE AND EXISTING EASTERLY FETCH, AND MAY RISE TO AROUND
3.5 ABOVE MLLW DURING HIGH TIDE.
COTTO
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT SAT OCT 11 2025
CONSIDERING WE HAD SOME WILDFIRE STARTS ON FRIDAY, AND CONTINUED
DRY FUELS AND LOW RH'S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...WE WILL
MAINTAIN THE ENHANCED FIRE WX MESSAGING. WIND SPEEDS WILL
THANKFULLY REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA, BUT IF
INITIATED, FIRES SHOULDN'T HAVE MUCH OF A PROBLEM STARTING ESP IN
THE DAYTIME HOURS. THE TEXAS A&M FOREST SERVICE IS FORECASTING
MODERATE TO HIGH FIRE DANGER FOR A GOOD PART OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS
THIS WEEKEND. USE CAUTION WITH ANY OUTDOOR BURNING AND OBEY BURN
BANS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT. 47
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 61 90 62 90 / 0 0 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 67 89 67 89 / 0 0 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 75 86 76 86 / 0 0 0 0
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...COTTO
AVIATION...47
MARINE...COTTO
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