368
FXUS64 KHGX 121845
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
145 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT SAT OCT 11 2025
- LOW DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES CONTINUE TO WARRANT FIRE
WEATHER RISK THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
- SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2025
LITTLE TO NO RAIN EXPECTED FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH AT LEAST
MID-WEEK AS THE PERSISTENT MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO
MEANDER OVER MEXICO AND TEXAS.
THE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWERS
90S FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK AND THE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN
THE 60S FOR MUCH OF THE INLAND PORTIONS AND IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S ALONG THE COAST. ALTHOUGH THE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO RUN ROUGHLY BETWEEN 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEK, DRIER
AIR WILL STILL ALLOW FOR SOMEWHAT COMFORTABLE EARLY MORNINGS AND
EVENINGS. OF COURSE, THIS IS SUBJECTIVE TO THOSE WHO LIVE HERE,
AND IF YOU'RE LIKE ME, IT'S BEEN FEELING PRETTY GOOD IN THE
EVENINGS WHEN TEMPERATURES DROP TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S :P.
ONE MINOR CHANGE IN THE MODELS IS THAT THE TIMING FOR THE CLOSED
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING INTO EASTERN MEXICO FROM THE GULF IS
FASTER, AND NOW HAS IT MOVING INTO THAT REGION SOMETIME LATE
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE RIDGE WILL THEN WEAKEN AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY AND A MID TO UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES
ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS (WE COULD SEE SOME
SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES ON FRIDAY). A COLD FRONT MAY THEN PUSH SOUTH
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL TX ON SATURDAY, POSSIBLY MOVING OVER
SOUTHEAST TX SOMETIME LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY, WHICH COULD
GIVE US A LITTLE MORE RAIN IN SOME SPOTS.
COTTO
AVIATION
(12Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2025
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR MOST SITES. LBX EXPERIENCING MVFR
VSBYS DUE TO PATCHY FOG. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE SE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2025
LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS AND SEAS OF 3 FEET OR LESS EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY. EAST NORTHEAST WINDS RETURN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND
BACK TO ONSHORE THURSDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WATER LEVELS
MAY RISE TO 3.0-3.5 ABOVE MLLW DURING HIGH TIDE THROUGH MID WEEK.
SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES ARE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.
COTTO
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2025
DAYTIME MINIMUM RH'S BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN 30-45% INTO TUESDAY,
FOLLOWED BY A DRIER SURGE OF AIR WED. LIGHT WINDS WILL STILL
PRECLUDE RED FLAG WARNINGS, BUT CONDITIONS ARE STILL FAVORABLE FOR
FIRE STARTS SHOULD INITIATION OCCUR. THE TEXAS A&M FOREST SERVICE
FIRE DANGER INDEX IS IN THE MODERATE-HIGH TERRITORY. PLEASE EXERCISE
CAUTION WHEN WORKING WITH OPEN FLAMES/EQUIPMENT THAT CAN CAUSE
SPARKS, ESPECIALLY IN DRY SPOTS. 47
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 90 62 90 61 / 0 0 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 89 67 89 66 / 0 0 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 85 76 85 75 / 0 0 0 0
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...COTTO
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...COTTO
FIRE WEATHER...47
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page