047
FXUS64 KHGX 290620
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
120 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, CLIMATE
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG WINDS HAVE ALREADY MATERIALIZED IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH SOUTHEAST TEXAS EARLIER ON TUESDAY.
WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
A MODEST LULL IN THE MORNING. AT THEIR PEAK, SUSTAINED WINDS
LOOK TO REACH 20-30 MPH, WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50 MPH IN
ISOLATED SPOTS. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS TODAY.
- ALONG WITH THE STRONG WINDS, MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY WILL OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON. WHERE THESE DRY, WINDY CONDITIONS OVERLAP WITH AREAS
THAT HAVE SEEN THE LEAST RAIN SINCE LAST WEEKEND, CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO EMERGE WITH RAPID OR
EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POSSIBLE. THIS IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR
WEST OF THE SAN BERNARD RIVER WHERE A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN
EFFECT FOR WEDNESDAY.
- THE REST OF THE AREA WILL SEE NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS EMERGE. THOUGH EITHER RAIN FROM PREVIOUS DAYS OR
SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITY MAY PRECLUDE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH,
CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE DRY AND WINDY IN AN AREA OF LONG TERM
DROUGHT, MAKING NEW FIRES ABLE TO SPREAD RAPIDLY. EVEN OUTSIDE
THE RED FLAG WARNING AREA, RESIDENTS SHOULD USE GREAT CARE TO
AVOID THE IGNITION OF WILDLAND FIRES.
- THE STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO BRING HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS TO
AREA BAYS AND COASTAL GULF WATERS. A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN
PLACE FOR THIS EVENING THROUGH 1 AM THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 120 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
AFTER A LONG PERIOD OF ADVERTISEMENT AND ANTICIPATION, THE LONG-
AWAITED COLD FRONT TO USHER IN REAL AUTUMN CONDITIONS HAS ARRIVED.
UNFORTUNATELY, IN ADDITION TO THE LOVELY CRISPNESS OF FALL, IT
ALSO BROUGHT A HOST OF OTHER, MORE HAZARDOUS GUESTS ALONG WITH IT.
FOR MORE SPECIFICS ON TODAY'S FIRE WEATHER THREAT, THE GALES
DEVELOPING ON ALL COASTAL WATERS, AND YESTERDAY'S RECORD HIGHS
PLEASE SEE THE FIRE WEATHER, MARINE, AND CLIMATE SECTIONS,
RESPECTIVELY, DOWN BELOW.
ONE THING THAT IS THANKFULLY PAST US ALONG WITH THE COLD FRONT IS
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. THE STORMS THAT DEVELOPED AHEAD OF AND
ALONG THE FRONT ARE NOW WELL OVER THE GULF. THOUGH THE MOST SEVERE
STORMS WERE TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST OF OUR AREA, WE WERE NOT
ENTIRELY UNSCATHED. THERE WERE NUMEROUS GUSTY STORMS WITH WINDS
OVER 30 MPH, AND A FEW INSTANCES OF WINDS EXCEEDING 40 MPH. ALONG
WITH THAT WAS BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN, WITH RAIN RATES OF AN INCH IN
LESS THAN 15 MINUTES IN MULTIPLE LOCATIONS. FINALLY, A COUPLE
STORMS WERE CAPABLE OF SMALL HAIL, AND A POSSIBLE WATERSPOUT NEAR
SAN LUIS PASS PROMPTED A BRIEF TORNADO WARNING THERE.
GOING FORWARD, WE ARE NOW EXPERIENCING A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY, BUT
WITH STRONG NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS ALREADY ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA. SUSTAINED WINDS AS HIGH AS 25-30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEARLY 50
MPH ARE BEING REPORTED IN ISOLATED SPOTS, AND WINDY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE, WITH AN AREA-WIDE WIND ADVISORY IN PLACE.
WINDS LOOK TO BE STRONGEST IN A WINDOW THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS, GO INTO A BIT OF A LULL IN THE MORNING, THEN INCREASE AGAIN
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AT THEIR STRONGEST, LOOK FOR WINDS IN THE
20-30 MPH RANGE ALONG WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50 MPH IN THE
WINDIEST, MOST EXPOSED LOCATIONS.
THE AIR THESE WINDS ARE BRINGING IN BEHIND THE FRONT IS COLDER AND
MUCH DRIER. AFTER YESTERDAY'S RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGHS, LOOK
FOR HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON TO BE A GOOD 20 DEGREES COLDER, IN THE
MIDDLE 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES IN THE WARMER SPOTS. DESPITE THE
COOLING, THE VERY LOW HUMIDITY OF THE AIR MEANS THAT MINIMUM RH
LOOKS TO DROP AS LOW AS THE UPPER TEENS WELL WEST OF THE HOUSTON
METRO, AND EVEN THE LEAST IMPACTED LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE RH FALL TO
AROUND OR BELOW 35 PERCENT. WE HAVE A RED FLAG WARNING OUT FOR THE
DRIEST, WINDIEST LOCATIONS (WHICH ALSO HAS THE DRIEST VEGETATION)
TODAY TO HIGHLIGHT WHERE THE MOST SEVERE CONDITIONS ARE. HOWEVER,
CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE WILL STILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF THE IGNITION AND
SPREAD OF WILDLAND FIRES. YES, RAIN YESTERDAY MAY HELP MITIGATE
IGNITION POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT, BUT WE ARE STILL IN AN AREA OF
EMERGING DROUGHT, SO THAT HELP WILL BE SOMEWHAT MUTED BY THE
ALREADY DRY LANDSCAPE. ALSO, EVEN WHERE RH MAY NOT FALL QUITE AS
LOW, IT WILL STILL BE LOW ENOUGH FOR NEW WILDFIRE STARTS. AND,
AREA-WIDE, THE WINDS WILL HELP NEW WILDFIRES SPREAD RAPIDLY.
WINDS SHOULD FINALLY BEGIN TO DIE DOWN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR
THURSDAY, AND WE SHOULD FINALLY GET A LITTLE MORE OPPORTUNITY TO
ENJOY THE END OF THE CONTINUING SUMMER THAT WE'VE SEEN THROUGH
SEPTEMBER AND OCTOBER. OF COURSE, THE DRY AIR WILL STICK WITH US,
SO IT'S STILL A SMART IDEA TO KEEP THOSE FIRE SAFETY HABITS WITH
US THROUGH THE WEEK.
LOOKING OUT TOWARDS THE WEEKEND, WE'LL SEE ANOTHER TROUGH DIG DEEP
INTO TEXAS, AND GIVE US ANOTHER FRONT AND ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR
RAIN AND STORMS. THIS LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY VIGOROUS TROUGH, AND
SOMETHING WE MAY NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS
AGAIN. WHAT LOOKS LIKE THE KEY FACTOR HERE IS HOW QUICKLY WINDS
TURN BACK TO BEING ONSHORE, AND HOW VIGOROUS MOISTURE RETURN FROM
THE GULF BEFORE WE LOOK AT STORMS ARRIVING SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
IF THINGS GET LOADED UP, WE MAY FIND OURSELVES EVALUATING SEVERE
STORM POTENTIAL YET AGAIN. IF MOISTURE RETURN IS MEAGER, THIS
COULD CHOKE THINGS OFF AND RESULT MORE IN A SMATTERING OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW WEAKER THUNDERSTORMS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 120 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
STRONG & GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT, WITH LOW LEVEL
SHEAR PRESENT DUE TO 40-50 KNOT WINDS AROUND 2,0000FT. SURFACE WINDS
STRENGTHEN TO 20-25 KTS (GUSTING 30KTS) WEDNESDAY MORNING, REDUCING
WIND SHEAR DURING THE DAY TIME. SURFACE WINDS WILL START TO DECREASE
WEDNESDAY EVENING, THOUGH STRONGER WINDS OF 30-40 KNOTS AROUND
2,000FT MAY PRODUCE A SHORT WINDOW OF LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR TONIGHT,
ENDING DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF THURSDAY.
03
MARINE
ISSUED AT 120 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED OFF THE COAST AND OUT OVER THE OPEN GULF.
IN ITS WAKE, STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE MATERIALIZING ALONG WITH
BUILDING SEAS. GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING AT MULTIPLE
COASTAL LOCATIONS, AND SHOULD BE EXPECTED TO EXPAND ACROSS THE
WATERS LATE TONIGHT. THESE WINDS MAY SEE A MODEST LULL IN THE
MORNING, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON,
SO THE GALE WARNING WILL CONTINUE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
BELOW GALE CRITERIA OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY, AND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES SHOULD BE EXPECTED TO REPLACE THE GALE WARNING WHEN
WINDS FINALLY DO BEGIN TO MORE SUBSTANTIALLY DIMINISH.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 120 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
THE EXPECTED COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH SOUTHEAST TEXAS, AND
STRONG WINDS OF 20-30 MPH AND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45-50 MPH ARE
ALREADY MATERIALIZING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THESE WINDS ARE
ALSO SURGING IN COOLER, BUT ALSO *MUCH* DRIER AIR, SETTING US UP
FOR A DAY OF NEAR-CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. WHERE THE WORST FUELS, WIND, AND HUMIDITY
CONDITIONS LINE UP, A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT TODAY. FOR THE
REST OF THE AREA, THOUGH CONDITIONS MAY NOT BE QUITE AS SEVERE IN
THE WARNING AREA, CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE NEAR THOSE DANGEROUS
THRESHOLDS. WHETHER ONE IS IN THE RED FLAG WARNING AREA OR NOT, IT
WILL BE IMPORTANT TO OBEY ALL AREA BURN BANS. EVEN IN LOCATIONS
WHERE A BURN BAN IS NOT IN EFFECT, FIRE USE SHOULD BE AVOIDED
TODAY. ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA, IT IS VERY IMPORTANT TO USE EXTREME
CAUTION WITH WORK AND EQUIPMENT THAT COULD THROW SPARKS INTO DRY
VEGETATION. EVEN SOMETHING AS SIMPLE AS A LOOSE CHAIN DRAGGING
FROM A VEHICLE COULD START A WILDFIRE.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 120 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT, RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
OCCURRED AT HOUSTON/HOBBY AIRPORT AND GALVESTON. HOBBY SET A NEW
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 91, BREAKING THE 1991/1977 RECORD OF 89
DEGREES. AT GALVESTON, THE HIGH OF 85 TIED THE EXISTING DAILY
RECORD HIGH LAST SEEN IN 2024 AND 2023 BEFORE THAT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 66 44 67 42 / 0 0 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 68 49 70 48 / 0 0 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 69 55 71 60 / 0 0 0 0
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ163-164-176>179-
195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR TXZ210-211-226-235-236-335-336-436.
GM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR GMZ330-335-350-355-370-
375.
DISCUSSION...LUCHS
AVIATION...03
MARINE...LUCHS
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