622
FXUS64 KHGX 291813
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
113 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG WINDS TODAY WILL BRING AN ENHANCED FIRE RISK, A CHANCE OF
SPORADIC POWER OUTAGES, AND HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS IN THE BAYS AND
GULF WATERS FOR MARINERS.
- BEAUTIFUL WEATHER FEATURING MILD DAYS AND CHILLY NIGHTS IS
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
- ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM TO
THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. TOO EARLY TO SAY IF THERE IS A SEVERE
WEATHER RISK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
SOUTHEAST TEXAS WEATHER IS DOMINATED BY A STEEP GRADIENT BETWEEN A
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SFC LOW AND A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS. MANY WEATHER STATIONS ARE
REPORTING SUSTAINED NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE 25 TO 30 MPH RANGE.
GUSTS HAVE BEEN OVER 40 MPH AT TIMES. AS OF TYPING THIS AFD, I AM
EVEN STARTING TO SEE SOME SUSTAINED WINDS OVER 30 MPH IN THE
HOUSTON METRO AREA. THESE WINDS COULD INCREASE FURTHER BEFORE
DECREASING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE GUSTY WINDS ARE
RESULTING IN VARIETY OF HAZARDS TODAY. FIRST, ANY LOOSE AND
UNSECURED OBJECTS CAN EASY BE KNOCKED OVER AND DISPLACED. SECOND,
THE WINDS COUPLED WITH THE VERY DRY AIR WILL ENHANCE THE FIRE
RISK, ESPECIALLY FOR OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES WHO ARE UNDER A RED
FLAG WARNING. THIRD, HAZARDOUS WINDS AND SEAS ARE OCCURRING OVER
THE BAYS AND GULF WATERS. MARINE CONDITIONS TODAY HAVE BEEN ON THE
BORDER OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND GALE WARNING WORTHY. WE HAVE
OPTED TO KEEP THE GALE WARNING GIVEN THE REPORTS OF GUSTS OVER 40
MPH AND THE ROUGH SEAS. ON A BRIGHTER NOTE, THESE WINDS HAVE
BROUGHT SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID-60S RIGHT NOW. CAA IN PLACE
SHOULD LIMIT FURTHER WARMING. WE ARE EXPECTING WIDESPREAD LOWS IN
THE 40S TONIGHT. LOCATIONS IN THE HEART OF HOUSTON'S HEAT ISLAND
MAY REMAIN ABOVE 50. COASTAL AREAS LIKELY ONLY DIPPING INTO THE
50S AS WELL.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ARE LOOKING PERFECT FOR THE HALLOWEEN SEASON.
THURSDAY'S HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID-60S IN OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES TO AROUND 70 FROM I-10 TO THE COAST. FRIDAY
LOOKS A TAD WARMER, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 70S. THURSDAY NIGHT
APPEARS TO BE THE CHILLIEST OF THE WEEK. A FEW NORTHERN PINEY
WOODS SPOTS COULD DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S WHILE AREAS IN THE HEART
OF THE URBAN HEAT ISLAND COULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S.
A DEEP MID/UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL
CONUS AND THE MIDWEST OVER THE WEEKEND, RESULTING IN ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GUIDANCE IS PRETTY
INCONSISTENT REGARDING LL INSTABILITY. WE CANNOT RULE OUT ANOTHER
THREAT OF STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
BUT UNCERTAINTY IS UNFORTUNATELY HIGH REGARDING INSTABILITY.
SELF
AVIATION
(12Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
STRONG & GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH
LOW LEVEL SHEAR PRESENT DUE TO 40-50 KNOT WINDS AROUND 2,0000FT.
SURFACE WINDS STRENGTHEN TO 20-25 KTS (GUSTING 30KTS) AFTER
SUNRISE, REDUCING WIND SHEAR DURING THE DAYTIME. SURFACE WINDS
WILL START TO DECREASE THIS EVENING. WINDS ALOFT MAY STILL BE
NEAR 35 KNOTS AT AROUND 2,000FT, SO A BRIEF PERIOD OF WEAKER
LLWS MAY BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT BEFORE WINDS
ALOFT DIMINISH AS WELL.
03
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE GRADUALLY
DECREASING THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THAT BEING SAID, WINDS AND
SEAS ARE LIKELY REMAIN HAZARDOUS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE 20-25 KNOT RANGE
WITH GUSTS UP TO 35-40 KNOT IN THE BAYS, TO THE 25-35 KNOT RANGE
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OVER 40 KNOTS OFFSHORE. IT MAY TAKE UNTIL
SOMETIME THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE BAY AND GULF WATER AREAS DROP
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
VEERING ON FRIDAY, BEFORE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL BE BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BY SUNDAY, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE FRONT'S WAKE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 120 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
THE EXPECTED COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH SOUTHEAST TEXAS, AND
STRONG WINDS OF 20-30 MPH AND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45-50 MPH ARE
ALREADY MATERIALIZING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THESE WINDS ARE
ALSO SURGING IN COOLER, BUT ALSO *MUCH* DRIER AIR, SETTING US UP
FOR A DAY OF NEAR-CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. WHERE THE WORST FUELS, WIND, AND HUMIDITY
CONDITIONS LINE UP, A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT TODAY. FOR THE
REST OF THE AREA, THOUGH CONDITIONS MAY NOT BE QUITE AS SEVERE IN
THE WARNING AREA, CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE NEAR THOSE DANGEROUS
THRESHOLDS. WHETHER ONE IS IN THE RED FLAG WARNING AREA OR NOT, IT
WILL BE IMPORTANT TO OBEY ALL AREA BURN BANS. EVEN IN LOCATIONS
WHERE A BURN BAN IS NOT IN EFFECT, FIRE USE SHOULD BE AVOIDED
TODAY. ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA, IT IS VERY IMPORTANT TO USE EXTREME
CAUTION WITH WORK AND EQUIPMENT THAT COULD THROW SPARKS INTO DRY
VEGETATION. EVEN SOMETHING AS SIMPLE AS A LOOSE CHAIN DRAGGING
FROM A VEHICLE COULD START A WILDFIRE.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 120 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT, RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
OCCURRED AT HOUSTON/HOBBY AIRPORT AND GALVESTON. HOBBY SET A NEW
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 91, BREAKING THE 1991/1977 RECORD OF 89
DEGREES. AT GALVESTON, THE HIGH OF 85 TIED THE EXISTING DAILY
RECORD HIGH LAST SEEN IN 2024 AND 2023 BEFORE THAT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 44 68 42 72 / 0 0 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 49 69 48 73 / 0 0 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 56 71 60 73 / 0 0 0 0
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ163-164-176>179-
195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ163-211-226-
235-236-335-336-436.
GM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR GMZ350-335-350-355-370-
375.
DISCUSSION...SELF
AVIATION...03
MARINE...SELF
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