881
FXUS64 KHGX 292304
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
604 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG WINDS TODAY WILL BRING AN ENHANCED FIRE RISK, A CHANCE OF
SPORADIC POWER OUTAGES, AND HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS IN THE BAYS AND
GULF WATERS FOR MARINERS.
- BEAUTIFUL WEATHER FEATURING MILD DAYS AND CHILLY NIGHTS IS
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
- ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM TO
THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. TOO EARLY TO SAY IF THERE IS A SEVERE
WEATHER RISK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
SOUTHEAST TEXAS WEATHER IS DOMINATED BY A STEEP GRADIENT BETWEEN A
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SFC LOW AND A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS. MANY WEATHER STATIONS ARE
REPORTING SUSTAINED NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE 25 TO 30 MPH RANGE.
GUSTS HAVE BEEN OVER 40 MPH AT TIMES. AS OF TYPING THIS AFD, I AM
EVEN STARTING TO SEE SOME SUSTAINED WINDS OVER 30 MPH IN THE
HOUSTON METRO AREA. THESE WINDS COULD INCREASE FURTHER BEFORE
DECREASING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE GUSTY WINDS ARE
RESULTING IN VARIETY OF HAZARDS TODAY. FIRST, ANY LOOSE AND
UNSECURED OBJECTS CAN EASY BE KNOCKED OVER AND DISPLACED. SECOND,
THE WINDS COUPLED WITH THE VERY DRY AIR WILL ENHANCE THE FIRE
RISK, ESPECIALLY FOR OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES WHO ARE UNDER A RED
FLAG WARNING. THIRD, HAZARDOUS WINDS AND SEAS ARE OCCURRING OVER
THE BAYS AND GULF WATERS. MARINE CONDITIONS TODAY HAVE BEEN ON THE
BORDER OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND GALE WARNING WORTHY. WE HAVE
OPTED TO KEEP THE GALE WARNING GIVEN THE REPORTS OF GUSTS OVER 40
MPH AND THE ROUGH SEAS. ON A BRIGHTER NOTE, THESE WINDS HAVE
BROUGHT SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID-60S RIGHT NOW. CAA IN PLACE
SHOULD LIMIT FURTHER WARMING. WE ARE EXPECTING WIDESPREAD LOWS IN
THE 40S TONIGHT. LOCATIONS IN THE HEART OF HOUSTON'S HEAT ISLAND
MAY REMAIN ABOVE 50. COASTAL AREAS LIKELY ONLY DIPPING INTO THE
50S AS WELL.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ARE LOOKING PERFECT FOR THE HALLOWEEN SEASON.
THURSDAY'S HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID-60S IN OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES TO AROUND 70 FROM I-10 TO THE COAST. FRIDAY
LOOKS A TAD WARMER, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 70S. THURSDAY NIGHT
APPEARS TO BE THE CHILLIEST OF THE WEEK. A FEW NORTHERN PINEY
WOODS SPOTS COULD DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S WHILE AREAS IN THE HEART
OF THE URBAN HEAT ISLAND COULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S.
A DEEP MID/UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL
CONUS AND THE MIDWEST OVER THE WEEKEND, RESULTING IN ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GUIDANCE IS PRETTY
INCONSISTENT REGARDING LL INSTABILITY. WE CANNOT RULE OUT ANOTHER
THREAT OF STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
BUT UNCERTAINTY IS UNFORTUNATELY HIGH REGARDING INSTABILITY.
SELF
AVIATION
(00Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 554 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
VFR THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THIS EVENING AS A 30-40 KT LLVL JET CONTINUES OVERHEAD. WINDS
WILL RELAX OVERNIGHT AS THE JET BEGINS TO WEAKEN. N-NW WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ON THU WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 20 KT ON OCCASION. LIGHT VRB
WINDS SHOULD BEGIN EARLY THU NIGHT.
COTTO
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE GRADUALLY
DECREASING THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THAT BEING SAID, WINDS AND
SEAS ARE LIKELY REMAIN HAZARDOUS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE 20-25 KNOT RANGE
WITH GUSTS UP TO 35-40 KNOT IN THE BAYS, TO THE 25-35 KNOT RANGE
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OVER 40 KNOTS OFFSHORE. IT MAY TAKE UNTIL
SOMETIME THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE BAY AND GULF WATER AREAS DROP
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
VEERING ON FRIDAY, BEFORE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL BE BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BY SUNDAY, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE FRONT'S WAKE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
STRONG WINDS OF 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40-50 MPH AT TIMES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY FOLLOWING TUESDAY'S COLD FRONT. IN
ADDITION TO THE COOLER AIR, MUCH DRIER AIR IS ALSO BEING FILTERED IN
WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW AS 15-20% IN OUR
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. AS A RESULT, TODAY IS A DAY WITH NEAR-
CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
WHERE THE WORST FUELS, WIND, AND HUMIDITY CONDITIONS LINE UP, A RED
FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY. FOR THE REST OF THE AREA,
THOUGH CONDITIONS MAY NOT BE QUITE AS SEVERE IN THE WARNING AREA,
CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE NEAR THOSE DANGEROUS THRESHOLDS. TEXAS A&M
FOREST SERVICE HAS OUTLINED SOUTHEAST TEXAS IN A VERY HIGH TO
EXTREME FIRE DANGER RATING FOR TODAY. WHETHER ONE IS IN THE RED FLAG
WARNING AREA OR NOT, IT WILL BE IMPORTANT TO OBEY ALL AREA BURN
BANS. EVEN IN LOCATIONS WHERE A BURN BAN IS NOT IN EFFECT, FIRE USE
SHOULD BE AVOIDED TODAY. ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA, IT IS VERY
IMPORTANT TO USE EXTREME CAUTION WITH WORK AND EQUIPMENT THAT COULD
THROW SPARKS INTO DRY VEGETATION. EVEN SOMETHING AS SIMPLE AS A
LOOSE CHAIN DRAGGING FROM A VEHICLE COULD START A WILDFIRE.
LUCHS/BATISTE
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 44 68 42 72 / 0 0 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 49 69 48 73 / 0 0 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 56 71 60 73 / 0 0 0 0
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ163-164-176>179-
195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ210-211-226-
235-236-335-336-436.
GM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR GMZ330-335-350-355-370-
375.
LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR GMZ335.
DISCUSSION...SELF
AVIATION...COTTO
MARINE...SELF
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