378
FXUS64 KHGX 310457
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1157 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FRIDAY, ALBEIT WITH LIGHT WINDS.
AFTER MULTIPLE DRY DAYS AND BACKGROUND DROUGHT CONDITIONS,
WILDFIRES CAN IGNITE EASILY, BUT THE LIGHTER WINDS SHOULD HELP
FIREFIGHTING EFFORTS BE MORE EFFECTIVE. STILL, NO WILDFIRE IS
BETTER THAN ONE THAT CAN BE FOUGHT EASILY. IT'S IMPORTANT TO
CONTINUE TO OBEY LOCAL BURN BANS AND EXERCISE GREAT CAUTION WITH
ANY EQUIPMENT THAT COULD SPARK A NEW FIRE.
- OUR NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY. WE WILL SEE
WARMTH AND MOISTURE TREND UPWARDS UNTIL IT ARRIVES, BRINGING
SOME SCATTERED SHOWER/STORM CHANCES DURING THE DAY.
- SUNDAY LOOKS FAIRLY DRY AND MODESTLY BREEZY BEHIND THE FRONT,
BUT CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE NEARLY AS SEVERE AS WE SAW
AFTER THE PREVIOUS FRONT. FAIRLY SEASONABLE WEATHER THEN
PREVAILS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2025
HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEGUN TO TAKE CONTROL OVER THE REGION, SETTING
US UP FOR AN END TO THE WORK WEEK THAT WILL BE DRY, MOSTLY SUNNY,
AND RETURNING TO AFTERNOON HIGHS RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES.
AT SOME POINT DURING THE DAY, THOUGH IT NOW LOOKS TO BE MORE OF A
MID TO LATE-AFTERNOON TIMEFRAME, ONSHORE WINDS WILL RETURN. OF
COURSE, THIS IS PRETTY LATE, SO WE'RE UNLIKELY TO SEE DEWPOINTS
START TO MEANINGFULLY RISE AHEAD OF SATURDAY'S FRONT UNTIL
TONIGHT.
IF YOU'VE BEEN READING THE AFDS FROM EARLIER IN MY STRETCH (HI,
HELLO, WELCOME BACK!) - YOU'LL KNOW I'VE BEEN LOOKING AT THE
DURATION AND EFFICIENCY AS KEY TO THE CONVECTIVE FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY, BUT ALSO A VERY UNCERTAIN KEY. WELL, TODAY I FEEL A
LITTLE MORE CERTAIN, AND IN A GOOD WAY. THE LATE ARRIVAL OF
ONSHORE WINDS IS GOING TO LIMIT THE DURATION OF MOISTURE RETURN,
AND A PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT SATURDAY MORNING BACK TOWARDS
EASTERLY OR EVEN NORTHEASTERLY IS GOING TO REALLY MESS WITH THE
EFFICIENCY OF THAT RETURN. THIS QUIETS WHAT REMAINING CONCERN I
HAD ABOUT SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY, AND I FEEL MUCH MORE
CONFIDENT IN ADVERTISING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS, WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS BEING AT THE COAST
WHERE WE'LL MANAGE TO SHUFFLE IN THE BEST QUALITY BOUNDARY LAYER
HEAT AND HUMIDITY THAT WE'LL BE ABLE TO GET THIS WEEKEND.
I DO HEDGE A LITTLE ABOVE NBM ON POPS TOMORROW AFTERNOON, AS THE
HREF MEAN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE STILL NEAR CLIMO AND EVEN
SOME SPECKLES OF 70TH PERCENTILE PWATS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE
HREF ALSO SUGGESTS THAT PWATS OVER AN INCH ARE MORE LIKELY THAN
NOT FOR ALL BUT THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA (WHERE I KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS) AND 1.25 INCHES FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES. THIS
IS NOT AN EYE-POPPING AMOUNT OF MOISTURE, AND I'VE CERTAINLY GOT
NO FLOODING CONCERNS OUT OF IT, BUT IT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GET
THOSE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS I MENTIONED IN THE
LAST PARAGRAPH. TO BE HONEST, I WOULDN'T MIND A LITTLE MORE
MOISTURE AND SOME NICE, LONG DURATION SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA TO
TAMP DOWN THE LONGER-TERM FUELS TRENDS FOR FIRE WEATHER, BUT I'LL
TAKE WHAT I CAN GET - AND SOME SCATTERED RAIN WITH NO SERIOUS
SEVERE THREAT IS A NICE THING TO TAKE. MY APOLOGIES IN ADVANCE TO
THOSE WHO LOSE THE RAIN LOTTERY ON SATURDAY - I'M QUITE CERTAIN
THERE WILL BE SOME WHO DO STILL STAY DRY.
SUNDAY PUTS US BACK IN A POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT, COMPLETE WITH
SOME COOLER TEMPS, DRIER AIR, AND A BIT MORE WIND. HOWEVER, IT
APPEARS THE DEEPEST PART OF THE INCOMING 850 COLD POOL WILL MISS
US WELL TO THE EAST, GIVING OUR AREA ONLY A GLANCING BLOW. THIS
SHOULD BRING TEMPS ONLY DOWN TO A BIT BELOW EARLY NOVEMBER
AVERAGES, WHILE THE DRY AND WINDY PORTIONS OF THIS INCOMING
AIRMASS SHOULD BE MUCH MORE MODEST THAN WE SAW AFTER THE BRUNT OF
THE PREVIOUS FRONT. THIS IS GOOD FOR MITIGATING CONCERNS BOTH FOR
FIRE WEATHER AND MARINE INTERESTS. EARLY NEXT WEEK ULTIMATELY
LOOKS TO BE QUITE SEASONABLE WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AS
RIDGING RETURNS TO THE FORE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 607 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT VRB WINDS
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON, THEN BECOMING ESE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
COTTO
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2025
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT WILL GRADUALLY VEER AROUND TO THE
SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION.
ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG INTO THE WATERS ON SATURDAY
BRINGING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THOUGH WE WILL
SEE A GRADUAL WIND SHIFT THROUGH THE DAY, SPEEDS PROBABLY WILL NOT
SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASE UNTIL WE GET INTO THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS WHEN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY.
AT THE COAST, THE LOW WATER ADVISORY HAS COME TO AN END AS WINDS
RELAX AND TIDES RETURN TO VALUES VERY CLOSE TO ASTRONOMICAL TIDE
LEVELS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2025
THOUGH A DECREASE IN WINDS WILL SOMEWHAT MODERATE FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS, WE WILL STILL HAVE LOW RH'S IN PLACE FRIDAY. MINIMUM
AFTERNOON RH'S ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 25-30 PERCENT INLAND
LOCATIONS AND EVEN DOWN INTO THE LOWER HALF OF THE 30S FOR MANY
COASTAL LOCATIONS. ONLY THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE LOOKS TO SEE RH
HOLD ABOVE 40 PERCENT ALL DAY FRIDAY. SOME IMPROVEMENT IN THE
AMOUNT OF HUMIDITY WILL BE SEEN ON SATURDAY, ALONG WITH ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF OUR NEXT
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION. A DRIER, WINDIER DAY SHOULD BE
EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SUNDAY, BUT NOT AS SEVERE AS
SEEN AFTER THE EARLY WEEK FRONT. SOME DRY AIR SHOULD PERSIST INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT WIND SPEEDS DO NOT LOOK TO BE ELEVATED.
CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION AND OBEY ALL LOCAL BURN BANS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 43 73 47 73 / 0 0 10 30
HOUSTON (IAH) 48 74 53 75 / 0 0 10 30
GALVESTON (GLS) 61 72 66 76 / 0 0 10 30
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LUCHS
AVIATION...COTTO
MARINE...LUCHS
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