223
FXUS64 KHGX 031115
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
515 AM CST MON NOV 3 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- PLEASANT, DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK WITH SLOWLY
MODIFYING COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS AND WARM DAYTIME HIGHS.
- NEXT FRONT IS PENCILED IN FOR SOMETIME LATER THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2025
"PERFECT" IS A TOUGH WORD TO BE ABLE TO USE FOR ANY TYPE OF
WEATHER, AS MOST EVERY SITUATION HAS PROS AND CONS FOR DIFFERENT
TYPES OF FOLKS. BUT TODAY MIGHT HAVE BEEN ABOUT AS CLOSE TO
PERFECT AS ONE COULD WANT. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S, LOWS
IN THE 50S, DRY AIR BUT NOT EXCEPTIONALLY SO...JUST NICE
CONDITIONS ALL AROUND. WE WILL INCREASINGLY DRIFT AWAY FROM THAT
THROUGH THE WEEK AS RIDGING ALOFT REMAINS IN CONTROL.
THE RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL ALSO
GRADUALLY LIFT HUMIDITY AND OVERNIGHT LOWS, BUT WHILE SUMMERISH
AFTERNOON HIGHS RETURN, WE DON'T LOOK TO QUITE MATCH THAT IN THE
HUMIDITY AND LOWS...THOUGH BY FRIDAY IT MIGHT START TO GET CLOSE,
AS DEWPOINTS AT THE COAST DO GET TO AROUND 70 DEGREES. COME THE
WEEKEND, WE'LL BE HOPING (OKAY, ME - I'LL BE HOPING) FOR THE
EXPECTED COLD FRONT TO TAKE THE EDGE OFF AND BRING US BACK TO
FALL.
FOR SOME IDEA OF HOW THE TEMPS WILL TREND THROUGH THE WEEK, WE CAN
LOOK AT SOME PROBABILITIES OF HITTING TEMP THRESHOLDS. NOW, THESE
ARE NBM PROBABILITIES WHICH ISN'T REALLY A TRUE PROBABILITY. BUT
WITH THE METEOROLOGY INVOLVING PERHAPS AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG
RIDGE BUT NOT A WILDLY EXTREME ONE, IT'S PROBABLY A PRETTY FAIR
APPROXIMATION. ON MONDAY, THE PROBABILITY OF HITTING 85 DEGREES IS
LESS THAN 5 PERCENT FOR ALL BUT THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF OUR
AREA IN COLORADO, WESTERN WHARTON, AND A SLIVER OF JACKSON COUNTY.
BY WEDNESDAY, AN 85+ HIGH IS MORE LIKELY THAN NOT ACROSS THE RURAL
COASTAL PLAIN WEST/SOUTHWEST OF THE METRO, AND THERE'S AT LEAST A
5 PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR ALL BUT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. BY FRIDAY,
A HIGH OF AT LEAST 85 IS MORE LIKELY THAN NOT FOR A LARGE MAJORITY
OF THE AREA, AND VIRTUALLY CERTAIN FOR THE ENTIRE COASTAL PLAIN
ACROSS THE AREA. MATCHING UP WITH THAT IS THE EURO ENSEMBLE'S
EXTREME FORECAST INDEX. THERE'S NO SIGNAL FOR HIGH-END HEAT UNTIL
THURSDAY, WHEN A SUGGESTIVE 0.5-0.7 SIGNAL BEGINS TO EMERGE, WITH
A MORE SUBSTANTIAL 0.7-0.8 SIGNAL SHOWING UP FOR FRIDAY.
OVERNIGHT, ANOMALOUS HEAT IS NOT QUITE AS BIG A CONCERN THANKS TO
FAIRLY LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE WEEK.
PROBABILITIES FOR A 70+ LOW TEMP EXIST ONLY AT THE IMMEDIATE
COAST, AND REALLY ONLY LATE IN THE WEEK. EVEN STEPPING THE
THRESHOLD DOWN TO 65 DEGREES, MOST OF THE AREA DOESN'T SEE THE
PROBABILITY RISE ABOVE 10 PERCENT.
AT THE VERY END/JUST BEYOND THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WE'LL
BE LOOKING FOR OUR NEXT FRONT. THERE'S MORE TIME TO WORK OUT THE
DETAILS ON THIS, BUT AT THE VERY LEAST, IT WILL CHOP DOWN THE
BUILDING HEAT BEFORE IT GETS TOO OUT OF HAND.
AVIATION
(12Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 513 AM CST MON NOV 3 2025
VFR WITH LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY WINDS.
FOWLER
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2025
LIGHT, MAINLY NORTHEAST WINDS EARLY WILL TRANSITION TO LIGHT
ONSHORE WINDS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FAVORABLE MARINE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR MOST OF THE WORK WEEK WITH LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW AND RELATIVELY LOW SEAS PREVAILING. HIGHER WINDS AND
SEAS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED UNTIL A FRONTAL PASSAGE OVER THE WEEKEND.
POTENTIAL FOR RIP CURRENTS AND HIGHER THAN AVERAGE TIDAL LEVELS
WILL ALSO BEGIN TO EMERGE LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE ONSHORE FLOW
STRENGTHENS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 77 48 78 54 / 0 0 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 76 50 79 57 / 0 0 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 72 64 75 68 / 0 0 0 0
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LUCHS
AVIATION...FOWLER
MARINE...LUCHS
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