363
FXUS64 KHGX 040520
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1120 PM CST MON NOV 3 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
- PLEASANT, DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK WITH GRADUAL
INCREASES IN TEMPERATURES AND A MODEST INCREASE IN HUMIDITY.
- THE NEXT FRONT FOR OUR AREA IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. THIS FRONT
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT AND SOME BRIEFLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES, BUT LITTLE TO NO POTENTIAL FOR RAIN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST MON NOV 3 2025
TEMPERATURES AND TO A LESSER EXTENT, HUMIDITY, DOMINATE FORECAST
CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT WEEK. RIDGING LOOKS TO SETTLE INTO A
PREVAILING ROLE FOR THE WEATHER THIS WEEK, KEEPING THE SKY MOSTLY
SUNNY AND A GRADUAL TREND OF WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEK. THE MAIN QUESTION BECOMES JUST HOW HOT AND HUMID DO
CONDITIONS GET BY LATE IN THE WEEK?
WELL, TO BE HONEST, I'M REALLY TEMPTED TO COPY AND PASTE LAST
NIGHT'S DISCUSSION IN HERE, BECAUSE NOT A WHOLE LOT HAS CHANGED.
WINDS ARE CURRENTLY LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE, BUT ARE NOW MORE
ONSHORE THAN ANYTHING ELSE, WHICH SETS US UP FOR THAT GRADUAL
UPWARD TREND. FOR TEMPERATURES, TUESDAY LOOKS TO HAVE SOLIDLY
ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BUT ONLY BY JUST A LITTLE BIT. DEEPER
INTO THE WEEK, BOTH THE NAEFS AND EURO ENSEMBLES SHOW MEAN 850
TEMPS RISING ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE TO ABOVE THE 99TH
PERCENTILE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE MIDDLE TO EVEN UPPER 80S TO THE AREA, MORE REMINISCENT OF
SUMMER THAN FALL...WHICH IS PRETTY IN KEEPING WITH HOW THIS AUTUMN
HAS GONE FOR US. FRIDAY MAY EVEN START TO BRING US INTO THE
NEIGHBORHOOD OF RECORD HIGHS DUE TO THOSE ANOMALOUSLY HIGH LOW
LEVEL TEMPS, BUT FOR NOW I'M ANTICIPATING WE COME IN JUST A BIT
SHORT. SOMETHING TO WATCH, THOUGH.
HUMIDITY ALSO LOOKS TO BE MAKING A MOVE UPWARD AS ONSHORE FLOW
BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED. HOWEVER, WITHOUT A REAL STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT, AND NOT THE STRONGEST SURFACE HIGH PUMPING
STRONGER WINDS IN FROM THE GULF, IT AT LEAST APPEARS TO ME THAT
WHILE THE TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY ABOVE AVERAGE, IT MAY BE A BIT
MORE DIFFICULT TO DISCERN IN THE HUMIDITY. OUR DETERMINISTIC
FORECAST STILL KEEPS 70 DEGREE DEWPOINTS OUT OF THE PICTURE UNTIL
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY, AND EVEN THEN, THE 70 DEGREE CONTOUR IS
RIGHT AT THE COAST. THIS WILL AT LEAST PROVIDE SOME CONSOLATION IN
THAT WHILE WE MAY SEE SOME SUMMER-LIKE TEMPS, THE HUMIDITY WILL
NOT BE AS OPPRESSIVE AS WE TEND TO SEE IN THE SUMMER.
FINALLY, THIS WEEKEND, WE'LL BE LOOKING FOR OUR NEXT FRONT. IT
SEEMS LIKE EACH SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUN IS LESS AND LESS IMPRESSED
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE - LAST NIGHT
IT WAS ALREADY TO THE POINT THAT MOST OF THE RAIN CHANCES IN THE
MODEL GUIDANCE HAD PULLED BACK TO THE COASTAL GULF WATERS, AND
TONIGHT WE BARELY HAVE ANY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS, ONLY IN A SMALL
STRIP NEAR THE END OF OUR COASTAL AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY ABOUT 60
NM FROM SHORE. SO, IF YOU MISSED OUT ON RAIN FROM OUR LAST FRONTAL
PASSAGE, DON'T LOOK TO MAKE THAT UP HERE. AT LEAST IT SHOULD BRING
US AT LEAST ONE DAY OF BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS (BUT MAYBE NOT MORE
THAN ONE, SO DON'T GET TOO EXCITED, COLD WEATHER LOVERS).
AVIATION
(00Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 444 PM CST MON NOV 3 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
PREVAILING. THERE IS A NON-ZERO CHANCE OF PATCHY FOG CAUSING
INTERMITTENT REDUCED VISIBILITIES EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHERLY WITH WIND SPEEDS IN THE
7-10 KT RANGE.
BATISTE
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST MON NOV 3 2025
FAVORABLE MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR MOST OF
THE WORK WEEK WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AND RELATIVELY LOW SEAS
PREVAILING. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED UNTIL A
FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY. AS ONSHORE WINDS
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SO TOO WILL THE POTENTIAL FOR RIP
CURRENTS, AS WELL AS AN INCREASE IN TIDAL LEVELS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 48 79 54 82 / 0 0 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 49 78 58 82 / 0 0 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 64 74 69 77 / 0 0 0 0
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LUCHS
AVIATION...BATISTE
MARINE...LUCHS
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