259
FXUS64 KHGX 182345
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
545 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR RECORD WARMTH WILL CONTINUE AREAWIDE THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY. SOUTHERN COUNTIES COULD BE NEAR RECORDS THROUGH
FRIDAY.
- PERIODS OF LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE ON A DAILY
BASIS.
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING DISTURBANCE. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1121 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2025
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED MID/UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. AN ASSOCIATED DIFFLUENT
SOUTHWESTERLY JET IS BRINGING LIFT AND TROPICAL PACIFIC MOISTURE
INTO SW CONUS. FOR SE TEXAS, THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EFFECTING OUR
ATMOSPHERE TODAY, WITH MID/UPPER RIDGING REMAINS DOMINANT. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SE CONUS IS KEEPING THE LOW-LEVELS ON AN
ONSHORE FLOW REGIME, PUSHING WARM AND HUMID GULF AIR INTO OUR
REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR RECORD TERRITORY
AGAIN TODAY, WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID/UPPER 80S. MANY
LOCATIONS WILL STRUGGLE TO DIP BELOW 70 TONIGHT, WITH PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN.
NOW BACK TO THAT MID/UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE LOW
WILL CRAWL EASTWARD ACROSS SW CONUS AND NORTHERN MEXICO ON
WEDNESDAY. DESPITE BEING WELL WEST OF OUR AREA, THE SYSTEM MAY
INTRODUCE JUST ENOUGH LIFT OVER OUR WARM AND INCREASINGLY PWAT
RICH ENVIRONMENT TO SPARK OFF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. HRRR SEEMS TO THINK THERE
COULD BE AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS WELL. BEST CHANCE OF A
SHOWER APPEARS TO BE WEST OF I-45, WHERE WE HAVE 20-30 POPS. THE
POPS ARE LOWER (BUT NOT ZERO) EAST OF I-45. TEMPERATURE WISE,
EXPECT ANOTHER TOASTY DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
THE MID/UPPER LOW AT FIRST GLANCE APPEARS TO HAVE A RELATIVELY
SYMMETRICAL VORTICITY FIELD. BUT A DEEPER LOOK SHOWS THAT
VORTICITY IS STRONGEST ON THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE LOW.
AS THE PARENT LOW'S ANGULAR MOMENTUM PUSHES THE VORTICITY MAXIMA
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO MEXICO, THE OVERALL VORTICITY STRUCTURE
BECOMES INCREASINGLY ELONGATED AND TROUGH-LIKE. THIS IS EVIDENT IN
THE GLOBAL MODELS WHICH TRANSFORM THE SYSTEM FROM A CLOSED
MID/UPPER LOW TO A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
NEVADA TO THE CHIHUAHUAN DESERT. BY THIS POINT, THE AFOREMENTIONED
DIFFLUENT MID/UPPER JET WILL PUSH EASTWARD OVER TEXAS, INCREASING
LIFT AND SHEAR. THEREFORE, IT SHOULD BE NO SURPRISE THAT POPS
TREND HIGHER ON THURSDAY, GENERALLY 40-50%. BUT THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY.
THE POSITION OF THE TROUGH WILL HELP TO FOMENT A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NW TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AN
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SURGE EASTWARD AS SHEAR AND
SYNOPTIC ASCENT INCREASE. BY THURSDAY NIGHT, THE JET OVERHEAD IS
EXPECTED TO BRING 40-50KT 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WITH LL SHEAR (0-1KM AND
0-3KM) IN THE 20-30KT RANGE. CAPE WILL EXIST BUT DOES NOT APPEAR
TOO IMPRESSIVE, WITH LREF MEANS BELOW 1000 J/KG. BUT ONE SHOULD
NEVER UNDERESTIMATE A LOW CAPE / HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT'S
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE
PRIMARY CONCERN WOULD BE LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
TORNADOES. GIVEN THE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE PWATS, WE WILL ALSO HAVE
TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING AS WELL.
HOWEVER, WHEN LOOKING AT THE MID/UPPER PATTERN, THE STRONGEST
DIFFLUENCE IS EXPECTED TO BE WEST AND NORTH OF OUR REGION, MEANING
THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN TEXAS. THAT BEING SAID, HEAVY NORTH TEXAS RAINS CAN
TRANSLATE TO DOWNSTREAM RIVER FLOODING IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS.
SO IF THE LACK OF DIFFLUENCE IN OUR REGION KEEPS RAINFALL TOTALS
LOWER THAN EXPECTED, JUST KNOW THAT RAINFALL NORTH OF OUR AREA
CAN STILL HAVE AN IMPACT IN SE TEXAS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
DECELERATE OVER OUR REGION ON FRIDAY, BECOMING STALLED AND
DIFFUSED BY THE WEEKEND. RESIDUAL LIFT WILL KEEP POPS IN THE
FORECASTS THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE, A SYSTEM THAT'S
CURRENTLY SOUTH OF ALASKA IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTHWARD INTO SW
CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND, POSSIBLY BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO OUR REGION BY MONDAY.
WHEN WILL THINGS GET COOLER?
THIS IS A QUESTION WE ARE GETTING A LOT THESE DAYS. THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM IS DECOUPLED FROM THE POLAR JET THANKS TO A
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN. SO DON'T EXPECT COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE WAKE
OF THE SYSTEM. BUT I TOOK A DEEP DIVE INTO THE LARGE SCALE
TELECONNECTIONS THAT CAN ACT AS WEATHER TEA LEAVES FOR THE LONG
TERM. RECENTLY, PRETTY MUCH ALL OF THE TELECONNECTIONS (NAO, AO,
PNA, MJO, ENSO) HAVE EITHER FAVORED A WARM SIGNAL FOR OUR REGION
OR HAVE EXHIBITED A MORE NEUTRAL SIGNAL. BUT THE TELECONNECTIONS
ARE TRENDING TOWARDS MORE MIXED SIGNALS AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK
AND THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY. FOR NOW, OUR FORECAST SHOWS A SLOW
COOLING TREND LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY, MOST LOCATIONS COULD BE CLOSE TO NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN
THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S. WE SHALL SEE IF THE
INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE NAO AND AO ALLOW FOR A SOUTHWARD PLUNGE IN
THE POLAR JET OVER NORTH AMERICA. TIME WILL TELL....
SELF
AVIATION
(00Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 545 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2025
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, THEN WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AREAWIDE AFTER ~03Z. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE
EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION AFTER 06Z LEADING
TO WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS. THE WINDOW OF HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE FOR LIFR CONDITIONS IS ~09Z TO 13Z. LOW LEVEL CLOUD
CEILINGS WILL LIKELY STICK AROUND THROUGH 17/18Z BEFORE IMPROVING
TO VFR, SO EXPECT A GRADUAL CLIMB FROM IFR TO MVFR TO VFR BY THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 7-10 KT WILL
PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. FOR WESTERN TERMINALS,
SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN
THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS HAS BEEN HINTED AT FOR
CLL/SGR/LBX WITH A PROB30. ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD REDUCED
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.
BATISTE
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1121 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2025
SOUTHEAST FLOW AVERAGING 10-15 KNOTS AND 2-4 FOOT SEAS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON BOTH DAYS. A MORE ROBUST SYSTEM MAY
BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. THOUGH WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD GENERALLY BE BENIGN, WE
CANNOT RULE OUT LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
WINDS MAY BECOME DIRECTIONALLY MORE VARIABLE ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT
SHOULD KEEP A DAILY RISK OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ONSHORE FLOW AND SEAS MAY INCREASE BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 67 84 68 82 / 10 30 10 50
HOUSTON (IAH) 69 84 68 83 / 0 10 0 30
GALVESTON (GLS) 72 79 71 78 / 0 20 10 40
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SELF
AVIATION...BATISTE
MARINE...SELF
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