397
FXUS64 KHGX 191126
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
526 AM CST WED NOV 19 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- FOG, SOME DENSE, WILL GRADUALLY BURN OFF TOWARD MID MORNING.
- NEAR RECORD WARMTH WILL CONTINUE AREAWIDE FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND DRAGS A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INTO THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CST WED NOV 19 2025
AREAS OF FOG COULD MAKE FOR A SLOWER THAN NORMAL MORNING COMMUTE.
IT SHOULD GRADUALLY BURN OFF TOWARD MID MORNING. WITH SOME HIGHER
PW'S TRANSITIONING INLAND TODAY, SOME OF US MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED
TO MAYBE SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND - ALBEIT MOSTLY INSIGNIFICANT IN
REGARDS TO AMOUNTS AND OVERALL DURATION. OTHERWISE, A WARM START TO
THE DAY WILL LEAD TO SOME MORE RECORD HIGHS BEING THREATENED THIS
AFTERNOON (CLL-86, IAH-85, HOU-84, GLS-81, PSX-82). SOMEWHAT SIMILAR
SET UP FOR TONIGHT INTO THURS, THOUGH FOG COVERAGE ISN'T ANTICIPATED
TO BE QUITE AS WIDESPREAD OR VSBY AS LOW.
UPPER LOW SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR SOCAL WILL WEAKEN AND
KICK OUT INTO THE PLAINS THURS NIGHT & FRI. WOULD ANTICIPATE SOME
INCREASING SHRA/TSTM COVERAGE THURSDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE BIG BEND
AREA INTO OKLAHOMA AS DAYTIME HEATING, SURFACE TROF/FRONT, AND
LARGER SCALE LIFT WORK THEIR MAGIC. THEY'LL PROBABLY BEGIN
APPROACHING THE I-35 CORRIDOR LATE IN THE DAY AND EVENTUALLY INTO
OUR NECK OF THE WOODS THURSDAY NIGHT. BEST OVERALL DYNAMICS SHOULD
BE SITUATED TO OUR NORTH...AND WITH THE PRECIP MOVING INTO A
SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT AS WE LOSE HEATING, I'D
EXPECT OVERALL INTENSITY TO BE WANING WITH TIME. WE WILL STILL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE OUT ON THINGS SHOULD THINGS DECIDE TO ACCELERATE, BUT
OVERALL SEVERE RISK LOOKS FAIRLY LOW TO ME GIVEN THE CURRENT MODEL
CONSENSUS. THIS SYSTEMS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG CLOSER
TO THE COAST ON FRIDAY AND COULD SERVE AS A WEAK FOCUS FOR SOME
ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSTM ACTIVITY IN ADVANCE DURING THE DAY. THE FRONT
WILL BE LOSING ITS SOUTHWARD MOMENTUM WITH TIME AND IT REMAINS TO BE
SEEN IF IT CLEARS THE COAST OR NOT BEFORE EVENTUALLY STALLING &
WASHING OUT.
ANOTHER WESTERN MID-UPPER TROF WILL SINK SOUTHWARD INTO BAJA
SATURDAY THEN BEGIN ITS EASTWARD JOURNEY TOWARD AND INTO TEXAS ON
MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE DEEPER, AND SHOULD PROVIDE BETTER
CHANCES OF STORMS TO THE REGION MON AFTERNOON-TUE MORNING. 47
AVIATION
(12Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 526 AM CST WED NOV 19 2025
FLIGHT CONDITIONS DEGRADED AGAIN THIS MORNING, BUT ACTUALLY RATHER
A MUDDLED MIX RATHER THAN THE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG ANTICIPATED.
IT IS STILL MOSTLY LIFR TO IFR MIXED BETWEEN FOG AND LOW CLOUDS,
BUT ALSO A BIT OF MVFR HERE AND THERE AND EVEN SOME VFR! AS A
RESULT, THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WILL BE FRUSTRATING AS MOST SITES
CAN PROBABLY BE EXPECTED TO BOUNCE AROUND A LOT AS THE SUN RISES.
THIS TAF ATTEMPTS TO BRACKET BEST AND WORST CASE EXPECTATIONS,
BUT MAY STILL NEED TO BE AMENDED TO KEEP UP WITH REALITY.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING, BUT LIKELY AT A
SLOWER PACE THAN PAST DAYS WITH MOISTURE POOLING OVER THE AREA,
KEEPING FOG AND STRATUS IN PLACE A BIT LONGER. EVENTUALLY, THOUGH,
WE SHOULD CRACK BACK TO VFR AREA-WIDE WITH S-SE WINDS UP AROUND 10
KNOTS AT PEAK THIS AFTERNOON. ANTICIPATING ISOLATED -SHRA WITH
ALL THIS MOISTURE, BUT CHANCES NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR ANY EXPLICIT
MENTIONS SAVE A PROB30 AT CLL. IF IT HAPPENS ELSEWHERE, IT SHOULD
BE EXTREMELY BRIEF AND LIGHT.
TONIGHT, AS WINDS MAKE THEIR WAY BACK DOWN TO AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS
FOR THE NIGHT, WE'LL SEE CONDITIONS DEGRADE AGAIN WITH THIS MIX OF
STRATUS AND FOG. STARTING WITH LOW MVFR-IFR FOR NOW, BUT POTENTIAL
FOR LIFR AGAIN AT THE MOST SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTED TERMINALS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CST WED NOV 19 2025
AREAS OF INLAND FOG MAY BLEED INTO PORTIONS OF GALVESTON BAY AND
THE NORTHERN HOUSTON SHIP CHANNEL OVERNIGHT CAUSING REDUCED
VISIBILITY. FOG SHOULD BURN OFF TOWARD MID MORNING. AREAS OF FOG
LOOK TO BE POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THOUGH NOT AS PREVALENT
AS TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH GULF SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET. A
VERY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG CLOSE TO THE COAST LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING THEN WASH OUT. ONSHORE WINDS QUICKLY
RESUME LATE IN THE DAY SATURDAY THEN INCREASE SUNDAY. 47
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 84 70 83 66 / 20 20 40 70
HOUSTON (IAH) 85 69 84 69 / 30 10 20 40
GALVESTON (GLS) 80 72 80 72 / 30 10 30 30
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...47
AVIATION...LUCHS
MARINE...47
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