262
FXUS64 KHGX 200640
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1240 AM CST THU NOV 20 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR RECORD WARMTH AGAIN TODAY FOR METRO AND COASTAL LOCATIONS.
- SOME STORMS IN/NEAR THE BRAZOS VALLEY AND PINEY WOODS TONIGHT.
- ANOTHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CST THU NOV 20 2025
ANY PATCHY FOG WILL BURN OFF BY MID MORNING, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
WARM AND HUMID DAY. RECORD HIGHS FOR THE METRO AND COASTAL AREAS
WILL BE THREATENED (84 @ IAH/HOU, 82 @ GLS, 85 @ PSX). CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME ISOLATED STREAMER SHOWERS DURING THE DAY, BUT SHOULD BE
INSIGNIFICANT.
SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY STRETCHING FROM WEST TEXAS INTO OKLAHOMA
SHOULD BE MAKING EASTWARD PROGRESS TODAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH
LARGER SCALE LIFT IN ADVANCE OF THE WEAKENING, NEGATIVELY TILTED
TROF THAT'LL BE PIVOTING FROM THE PANHANDLE REGION INTO THE
PLAINS. THIS PRECIP SHOULD APPROACH THE BRAZOS VALLEY THIS EVENING
AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE PINEY WOODS OVERNIGHT. OVERALL
INSTABILITY IN OUR AREA ISN'T MUCH TO WRITE HOME ABOUT, AND
CONSIDERING THE LOSS OF HEATING, SHOULD BE WANING THROUGH THE
NIGHT. MAY STILL NEED TO KEEP ANY EYE OUT FOR ANY EMBEDDED
STRONGER ROGUE CELLS...A BIT MORESO IF THEY DECIDE TO COME IN
EARLIER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. LOCATIONS SOUTH OF ABOUT
COLUMBUS-LIVINGSTON MAY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL FRIDAY-SATURDAY TO SEE
SUBTLE INCREASES IN SCATTERED SHRA/TSTM CHANCES. THIS IS WHEN THE
TROF'S ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT/WIND SHIFT WILL SLOWLY SAG
SOUTHWARD...EVENTUALLY STALLING OUT SOMEWHERE NEAR THE I-10
CORRIDOR LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
THE STALLED FRONT WILL WASHOUT ON SUNDAY AND SOUTHERLY WINDS
RESUME AREAWIDE WITH FALLING PRESSURES TO OUR WEST. THE NEXT
WESTERN TROF WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
APPEARS TO BRING BETTER RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY. ITS FRONT, AND POSSIBLY SECONDARY PUSH OF COOLER
MIDWEEK AIR, SHOULD HOPEFULLY BRING BACK READINGS CLOSER TO
SEASONABLE NORMS GOING INTO THE SECOND PART OF NEXT WEEK. 47
AVIATION
(00Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 543 PM CST WED NOV 19 2025
VFR CONDITIONS AND SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF DECREASED
VISIBILITIES AND CLOUD CEILINGS OVERNIGHT WITH CONDITIONS VARYING
BETWEEN LIFR TO MVFR AREAWIDE. THE WINDOW THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
LIFR CONDITIONS LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 09Z-14Z. CONDITIONS WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH IMPROVEMENT TO
MVFR FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BY 18Z. ALSO
AROUND 18Z IS WHEN SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 8-12 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
SOME SPORADIC RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS WELL, BUT
CONFIDENCE ON THE EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION IS ON THE LOW SIDE AT
THIS TIME. THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE EAST
OF I-45. THE GREATER CONFIDENCE ON RAIN COMES NEAR OR JUST AFTER
THE CURRENT PERIOD OF THIS TAF PACKAGE AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHES INTO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF DECREASED CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES GOING
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS WELL.
BATISTE
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CST THU NOV 20 2025
LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WITH GULF SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
SOUTHEAST TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT IS EXPECTED TO STALL INLAND
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ARE POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY. LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
FOG INLAND MAY ALSO BLEED INTO THE NORTHERN BAYS AT TIMES. BETTER
CHANCES OF THAT OCCURRING SHOULD BE FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE,
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AS THE STALLED FRONT DISSIPATES.
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 47
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 85 68 82 63 / 30 60 60 30
HOUSTON (IAH) 83 69 85 68 / 30 20 50 40
GALVESTON (GLS) 79 72 80 71 / 40 10 20 30
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...47
AVIATION...BATISTE
MARINE...47
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