489
FXUS64 KHGX 201906
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
106 PM CST THU NOV 20 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR RECORD WARMTH AGAIN TODAY AND POTENTIALLY TOMORROW FOR
METRO AND COASTAL LOCATIONS.
- SOME STORMS IN/NEAR THE BRAZOS VALLEY AND PINEY WOODS TONIGHT.
WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE FARTHER SOUTH ON
FRIDAY.
- ANOTHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CST THU NOV 20 2025
AS EXPECTED, THE LONG TALKED ABOUT MID/UPPER SYSTEM HAS
TRANSITIONED INTO A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH, WITH AN AXIS
EXTENDING FROM NEVADA TO THE CHIHUAHUAN DESERT IN NORTHERN
MEXICO. STRONG DIFFLUENCE AND ROBUST MID/UPPER MOISTURE TRANSPORT
FROM THE TROPICAL PACIFIC IS EXCEPTIONALLY EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SW AND SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS. THE LOWER
LEVELS HAVE BECOME INCREASINGLY MOISTURE RICH, WHILE LIFT AND
VORTICITY STRETCHING ARE INDUCING LOW PRESSURE OVER W TEXAS. THIS
LOW WILL HAVE AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH EASTWARD
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, WHILE THE PARENT MID/UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM ALSO PUSHES EAST. THIS INITIALLY SOUNDS LIKE A SLAM DUNK
FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SE TEXAS,
ESPECIALLY WHEN ONE LOOKS AT MOISTURE AND SHEAR PARAMETERS. BUT
THE AFOREMENTIONED, ROBUST DIFFLUENCE WILL CONCENTRATE THE BULK OF
THE SYNOPTIC LIFT TO OUR WEST AND NORTH, FOCUSING THE BEST CHANCE
OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
TEXAS. TO THOSE HOPING FOR WIDESPREAD DROUGHT BUSTING RAINS, OUR
PROFOUND APOLOGIES. BUT WELL ABOVE AVERAGE PWATS COUPLED WITH THE
EVENTUAL APPROACH OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT AND SOME ENHANCED
MID/UPPER LIFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
FOR TODAY, EXPECT ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR RECORDS ONCE AGAIN. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ARE EXPECTED.
MANY OF YOU WILL REMAIN DRY. LOOKING AT VISIBLE SATELLITE, THERE
IS A NOTICEABLE ENHANCE STREAM OF CUMULUS EXTENDING FROM THE GULF
TO GALVESTON BAY AND UP THE TRINITY RIVER BASIN. I SUSPECT THAT
WILL BE A FAVORABLE ZONE FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE
HEAVIEST RAIN AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ARE CURRENTLY WELL TO OUR
NORTH AND WEST AS EXPECTED. BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME OF THAT
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IMPACTING OUR NORTHERNMOST COUNTIES BETWEEN
THE BRAZOS VALLEY AND PINEY WOODS LATER THIS EVENING.
BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHES
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. CAMS GUIDANCE IS QUITE VARIED REGARDING
HOW MUCH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY.
THIS LIKELY HAS TO DO WITH THE MIXED SIGNALS BEING ANALYZED BY
THE GUIDANCE. ON ONE HAND, WE WILL HAVE FRONTAL INDUCED SFC
CONVERGENCE COUPLED WITH HIGH PWATS AND AN ENHANCED LL/ML JET. ON
THE OTHER HAND, LARGER SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING ARE LACKLUSTER. FOR
NOW, WE ARE CALLING FOR SCATTERED ACTIVITY, WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALLY HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF YOUR
PARCHED YARDS WILL BE BLESSED WITH SHOWER, MAYBE EVEN A HEAVIER
THUNDERSTORM. BUT OTHERS MAY END UP REMAINING DRY. COULD NOT RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED STRONGER THUNDERSTORM GIVEN THE SHEAR. THE FRONT
STALLED AND BECOMES INCREASINGLY DIFFUSED. BUT IT'S PRESENCE
WARRANTS POPS LINGERING INTO SATURDAY THANKS TO POTENTIAL ENHANCED
SFC CONVERGENCE.
THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM SW CONUS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. POPS
ON SUNDAY ARE LOW. IT'S NOT UNTIL MONDAY THAT WE EXPECT THE SYSTEM
TO BRING THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THOUGH
MONDAY'S SYSTEM LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT SET UP, THERE IS
MODEL SUPPORT FOR A STRONGER FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT PUSHES THROUGH,
WHICH HAS IMPLICATIONS ON LIFT. THEREFORE, MAYBE WE CAN MUSTER
MORE RAINFALL AND THUNDERSTORM FROM MONDAY'S SYSTEM. WE SHALL SEE.
THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONGER FRONT IS A SIGN OF A POTENTIAL PATTERN
CHANGE AS WE APPROACH THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY.
THE CURRENT SPLIT FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO A
MORE POLAR JET DOMINATE PATTERN NEXT WEEK. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
THIS COULD START AS EARLY AS MONDAY'S STORM SYSTEM, WHICH MAY END
UP LINKING UP WITH THE POLAR JET AS IT DEPARTS OUR REGION BY
TUESDAY. THE PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN AMPLIFIED. BUT THE POLAR JET
DOING THE AMPLIFICATION WOULD SEND COLD, WINTER-LIKE AIR SOUTHWARD
WHEREVER A DEEP TROUGH RESIDES. LONG RANGE TELECONNECTIONS
GUIDANCE HAS MANAGED TO FLIP FLOP SOMEWHAT OVER THE LAST DAY, WITH
GLOBAL ENSEMBLES TRENDING MORE POSITIVE WITH THE ARCTIC AND NORTH
ATLANTIC OSCILLATIONS. PERHAPS THIS EXPLAINS LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE'S MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN AS OPPOSED TO A BLOCKING
PATTERN. THIS ENTIRE PARAGRAPH IS PRETTY MUCH A LONG WINDED WAY TO
SAY THAT I THINK WE WILL SEE STRONGER COLD FRONTS NEXT WEEK, BUT
I'M AM 1) UNSURE OF WHERE EXACTLY THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR WILL
GO AND 2) THINKING WE MAY END UP EXPERIENCING A BIT OF A
TEMPERATURE ROLLER COASTER RIDE IF INDEED THE PATTERN IS
PROGRESSIVE. OUR CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS TEMPERATURES FALLING TO
NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY (HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN
THE 50S). THE VERY EARLY OUTLOOK FOR THANKSGIVING INDICATES
RELATIVELY COOL CONDITIONS, WITH TEMPERATURES TO SKEWING A TAD
BELOW AVERAGE. BUT THIS COULD CHANGE SO STAYED TUNED!
SELF
AVIATION
(12Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 548 AM CST THU NOV 20 2025
MIX OF LIFR TO VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING.
AREAS OF PATCHY TO DENSE FOG CURRENTLY OVER AREAS SOUTH OF I-10,
BUT IS EXPECTED TO BURN OFF BY 14-15Z. THE LOW CIGS WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND MAY SCATTER OUT IN THE
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER AGAIN
DURING THE NIGHT HOURS. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. SOME
STORMS COULD PRODUCE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY VARIABLE
WINDS.
COTTO
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CST THU NOV 20 2025
LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW, 2-4 FOOT SEAS, AND ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW. AS A
WEAKENING FRONT APPROACHES ON SATURDAY, WINDS MAY BECOME LIGHTER
AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE WHILE THE RISK OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES. ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES ON SUNDAY, PERHAPS
REACHING CAUTION FLAG LEVELS BY MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES. THE FRONT MAY BRING A ANOTHER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW REGIME SETS UP
IN THE FRONT'S WAKE. REINFORCING FRONTS MAY BRING STRONGER WINDS
AND HIGHER SEAS LATER NEXT WEEK. BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
THAT FAR OUT IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 67 81 62 77 / 60 60 30 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 70 85 67 83 / 20 50 40 30
GALVESTON (GLS) 71 79 70 79 / 10 30 30 30
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SELF
AVIATION...COTTO
MARINE...SELF
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