330
FXUS64 KHGX 211150
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
550 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- POTENTIAL FOR NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES AGAIN FRIDAY FOR
LOCATIONS AROUND THE HOUSTON METRO AND ALONG THE COAST.
- SCATTERED STORMS OVERNIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF THE BRAZOS VALLEY AND
THE PINEY WOODS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE FARTHER SOUTH ON FRIDAY & SATURDAY.
- ANOTHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
- MONITORING THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER COLD FRONT AROUND THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES IN TIME FOR
THANKSGIVING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST THU NOV 20 2025
WE HAD YET ANOTHER DAY OF NEAR RECORD TO RECORD BREAKING HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AS BOTH THE CITY OF HOUSTON (BUSH
INTERCONTINENTAL AIRPORT) AND HOUSTON/HOBBY AIRPORT SET NEW RECORDS
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S. FOR THOSE KEEPING TRACK, THIS
IS THE 7TH DAY IN A ROW WITH AT LEAST ONE LOCATION SETTING A NEW
RECORD...AND WE MIGHT MAKE IT 8 DAYS IN A ROW ON FRIDAY. BEFORE WE
GET TO THAT THOUGH, THERE IS A LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS CURRENTLY
PUSHING THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE BRAZOS VALLEY AND THE PINEY WOODS.
RAINFALL RATES HAVEN'T BEEN THAT IMPRESSIVE IN OUR AREA AS OF
YET, BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS POSSIBLE IN ANY OF THE
STRONGER STORMS THAT MANAGES TO HOLD TOGETHER. PW VALUES REMAIN
WELL ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE. BASED ON THE 00Z CAMS, THIS
APPEARS TO BE MOST LIKELY ACROSS HOUSTON COUNTY (NOT THE CITY)
LATER TONIGHT. THESE STORMS ARE DUE TO A PASSING SHORTWAVE FROM A
NEGATIVELY TILTED MID- LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE
ROCKIES. THESE STORMS ARE OCCURING IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL BEGIN PUSHING INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS LATE
FRIDAY. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GET THE FULL HOUSTON EXPERIENCE
AND GET IN STUCK IN TRAFFIC AS IT SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY DOWN I-45.
THE SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS OF WHERE THE BEST
RAIN CHANCES ARE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. DURING THE DAYTIME ON
FRIDAY, RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGHER ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10 AND
WE'LL HAVE THE OPPOSITE ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. PW
VALUES REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE ALONG THE FRONT, SO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN ANY OF THE HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS. THE MAIN QUESTION FOR THE WEEKEND FORECAST IS WHEN WILL
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSH OFFSHORE. SOME OF THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE, INCLUDING THE LATEST 00Z CAM GUIDANCE, PUSHES THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OFF THE COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. IN THIS SCENARIO, RAIN
CHANCES FOR SATURDAY WOULD BE DRASTICALLY LOWER BEHIND THE FRONT. I
LEANED TOWARDS THE CAM GUIDANCE (TOTALLY NOT BIASED SINCE I'M ALSO
CAM), WHICH BRINGS RAIN CHANCES TO AN END BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
WHEREVER THE FRONT HAPPENS TO BE ON SUNDAY, IT'LL PUSH BACK
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT AS WE MOVE INTO A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING
IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW. THE NEXT ROUND
OF HEAVY RAIN LOOKS TO BE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS ANOTHER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE REGION. THIS LOOKS TO BE A FAIRLY SIMILAR
SETUP TO WHAT'S HAPPENING THIS WEEKEND, BUT WITH SOUTHEAST TX
GETTING SOME TIME IN THE WARM SECTOR THERE IS A SLIGHTLY BETTER
CHANCE TO SEE SOME STRONGER STORMS THIS TIME AROUND. PW VALUES
REMAIN WELL ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE, SO WE ARE ALREADY MONITORING
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AGAIN. AS OF THURSDAY
NIGHT, WPC HAS OUTLINED PORTIONS OF THE BRAZOS VALLEY AND THE PINEY
WOODS IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR
LATE SUNDAY. PORTIONS OF THE PINEY WOODS ARE IN A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL
2 OF 4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON MONDAY WITH THE REMAINDER OF
SOUTHEAST TX IN A MARGINAL RISK. THE MAIN WINDOW FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
AND STRONG STORMS LOOKS TO BE LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. IT'S A
BIT TOO EARLY TO NAIL DOWN THE EXACT PARAMETERS FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE
STORMS, BUT THE CHANCES DEFINITELY ARE NOT ZERO. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
ON EXACTLY WHERE THE FRONT WILL STALL AT, BUT IT'S EXPECTED TO
LINGER NEARBY THE COAST INTO MIDWEEK BEFORE A STRONGER COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH.
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT LOOK TO DROP DOWN TO BELOW AVERAGE
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S WITH LOWS IN THE 40S/50S (MAYBE SOME
UPPER 30S UP NORTH AS WELL). ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR BOTH THE GEFS AND
EURO ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH WHAT WE HAVE IN THE FORECAST FOR
THANKSGIVING DAY, WHICH IS WHAT'S IN THAT PREVIOUS SENTENCE. AS FAR
AS RAIN CHANCES GO FOR THANKSGIVING DAY, IT'S LOOKING DRY. NBM
PROBABILITIES FOR 12 HOUR RAINFALL OVER 0.01" IS 10% OR LESS FOR
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THANKFULLY, WE AREN'T EXPECTING ANY
FOWL WEATHER, BUT RATHER A DRY AND COOL THANKSGIVING. YOU MIGHT BE
THINKING, IS HE REALLY GOING TO STUFF IN THANKSGIVING PUNS RIGHT
AT THE END TO TREAT THOSE THAT READ THIS FAR?! OF COURSE! I
HAVEN'T GONE COLD TURKEY JUST YET...
BATISTE
AVIATION
(12Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 534 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2025
A MIX OF IFR TO VFR CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEAST TX ALONG WITH LIGHT
S-SE WINDS. SOME SITES CURRENTLY HAVE REDUCED VISIBILITIES DUE TO
FOG, AND IS EXPECTED TO BURN OFF BY 14-15Z. LOW CEILINGS WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND COULD SCATTER OUT
DURING THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS, BEFORE LOWERING AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT. WITH RESPECT TO WEATHER, SOME SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE ACROSS THE BRAZOS VALLEY AND PINEY WOODS REGION THIS
MORNING, THEN WE SHOULD SEE SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPANDING SOUTHWARD
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE
REGION. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME N-NW IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT.
COTTO
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST THU NOV 20 2025
LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK BEFORE AN APPROACHING WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRANSITIONS
WINDS TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. SEAS WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY, THEN COMES CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ON SATURDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES THE COAST. EXPECT A BIT OF A LULL ON SUNDAY BEFORE THE
NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES
OFFSHORE LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS. AS THIS DISTURBANCE APPROACHES, WINDS ON SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE CAUTION FLAG THRESHOLD.
THIS FRONT MAY INITIALLY STALL NEAR THE COAST UNTIL A STRONGER FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH AROUND MIDWEEK.
BATISTE
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 81 61 76 55 / 50 20 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 85 69 82 60 / 50 40 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 79 71 78 68 / 20 40 30 10
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BATISTE
AVIATION...COTTO
MARINE...BATISTE
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