874
FXUS64 KHGX 211913
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
113 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH. PATCHY FOG AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
- ANOTHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
MONDAY WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE.
- A STRONGER COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH SE TEXAS AROUND THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES IN TIME FOR
THANKSGIVING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2025
A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN HALF
OF OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON, PRODUCING A THIN LINE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. LIGHT SHOWERS ARE ONGOING OUT AHEAD OF IT, THOUGH
MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND SHOULD CEASE THIS
EVENING. THOUGH, SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE
FRONT AS IT SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY TO THE COAST. TIMING WHEN THAT'LL
OCCUR IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. 12Z HRRR & ARW PLACE THE FRONT AT
THE COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING, WHILE THE FV3 AND NAM HAVE IT
REACHING THE WATERS LATER. NBM IS LEANING TOWARDS THE HRRR/ARW WITH
RESPECT TO WINDS (NOT SURPRISING GIVEN HOW THEY OFTEN VERIFY
COMPARED TO THE LATTER TWO). TIMING DISCREPANCIES ASIDE, RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WEAK FRONT WON'T BE VERY IMPRESSIVE. WE'LL ALSO
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR FOG PRIOR TO THE FRONT'S ARRIVAL, AS
POOLING MOISTURE AND WEAK WINDS PRECEDING THE FROPA SHOULD SUPPORT
SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE COAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
SUNDAY KICKS OFF WITH RIDGING OVERHEAD AND A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
STALLED NEAR THE COAST/NEARSHORE WATERS. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES,
WE'LL SEE THAT BOUNDARY LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THIS BRIEF WARM
UP COULD RESULT IN A SHORT-LIVED BUMP IN HIGHS IN SOME SPOTS FOR
SUNDAY, THOUGH FROM A REGIONAL PERSPECTIVE THE TEMPERATURE TREND
WILL STILL BE DOWNWARD. PWS CLIMB TO 1.3" AND PEAK UP AT 1.9",
GIVING PLENTY OF MOISTURE FOR SOME LIGHT WAA SHOWERS LEADING UP TO
THE NEXT FROPA. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING, WE'LL SEE A
25-40 KNOT LLJ MOVE OVER SE TEXAS. SE TEXAS IS ON THE PERIPHERAL OF
THE FRONT-RIGHT ENTRANCE TO THE UPPER LEVEL JUST STREAK ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH DRIVING THIS FROPA. HOWEVER, IT DOES REMAIN
RELATIVELY DISTANT FROM THIS FEATURE WITH THE MAIN AXIS OF DEEPER
PVA/OMEGA PLACED MUCH FURTHER NORTH IN MODELS, SO UPPER LEVEL
FORCING ISN'T LOOKING AS ROBUST AS IT COULD BE. STILL, THE AMPLE
MOISTURE AND FORCING FROM THE LLJ JET COULD BE POTENT ENOUGH FOR
SOME ISOLATED HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS, ESPECIALLY ON THE NORTHERN END
OF OUR CWA. MOST OF THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ON MONDAY AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FILLS NE.
RAINFALL TOTALS FOR MONDAY ARE FORECASTED BETWEEN 0.5-1.5" INCHES ON
MONDAY, THOUGH HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 3" CANNOT BE RULED OUT EITHER.
WPC HAS SE TEXAS UNDER A SLIGHT (LEVEL 2/4) RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL FOR MONDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIP OF OUR CWA WITH A
MARGINAL (LEVEL 1/4) EXTENDING THROUGH THE REST OF THE AREA (AND
ALSO PORTIONS OF OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT). DRY SOILS
WILL HELP MITIGATE THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING, THOUGH IT WON'T STOP
IT ENTIRELY IF THIS RAIN QUICKLY FALLS OVER A SHORT PERIOD OR IF
STORMS REPEATEDLY PASS OVER THE SAME AREA. PONDING ON ROADWAYS AND
MINOR STREET FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE, THOUGH ITS TYPICAL ISOLATED
IN CIRCUMSTANCES SUCH AS THIS. WE COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS AS
WELL, CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS, THOUGH AGAIN RAINFALL
REMAINS MORE OF A CONCERN.
THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT TAPER OFF INTO TUESDAY WITH THE LOSS OF
DYNAMICS FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH FILLING TO THE NORTH.
HOWEVER, THE COLD FRONT WON'T QUITE BE THROUGH OUR AREA JUST YET, AS
SOME MODELS LIKE THE GFS SHOW IT ONLY JUST REACHING THE BRAZOS
VALLEY BY THE EARLY MORNING. THIS LEAVES SOME ROOM FOR ADDITIONAL
DESTABILIZATION DUE TO AFTERNOON HEATING AND DRIER AIR FILLING IN
ALOFT. WITH BULK SHEAR OF 35-50 KNOTS, THERE IS A CHANCE WE COULD
STILL SEE SOME STRONGER STORMS ALONG THE FROPA ITSELF, PRIMARILY
STRONG WINDS DUE TO LACKING DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. EITHER WAY, AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS SHOULD HELP REINFORCE
THE FRONT, PUSHING IT OFF THE COAST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
USHER IN COOLER AND MUCH MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER FOR THANKSGIVING.
03
AVIATION
(12Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 534 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2025
A MIX OF IFR TO VFR CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEAST TX ALONG WITH LIGHT
S-SE WINDS. SOME SITES CURRENTLY HAVE REDUCED VISIBILITIES DUE TO
FOG, AND IS EXPECTED TO BURN OFF BY 14-15Z. LOW CEILINGS WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND COULD SCATTER OUT
DURING THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS, BEFORE LOWERING AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT. WITH RESPECT TO WEATHER, SOME SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE ACROSS THE BRAZOS VALLEY AND PINEY WOODS REGION THIS
MORNING, THEN WE SHOULD SEE SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPANDING SOUTHWARD
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE
REGION. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME N-NW IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT.
COTTO
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2025
LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AHEAD
OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LEADING UP TO
THE FRONT WITH ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT. FRONT
SHOULD MOVE OFF THE COAST AND STALL SATURDAY MORNING WITH
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING IN IT'S WAKE. WIND SHIFT EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY ON SUNDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF THE STALLED BOUNDARY LIFT
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. RAIN CHANCES RETURN LATE SUNDAY, RISING INTO
MONDAY AS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA. CAUTION
FLAGS MAY BE NEEDED DURING THIS PERIOD AS ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS.
RAIN CHANCES LINGER INTO TUESDAY AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW
TO MOVE THROUGH SE TEXAS. A STRONGER REINFORCING FRONT WILL HELP
PUSH THE COLD FRONT OFF THE COAST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH MODERATE
TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE.
03
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 59 75 53 75 / 20 0 0 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 67 81 58 78 / 70 20 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 70 80 66 75 / 30 50 0 10
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...03
AVIATION...COTTO
MARINE...03
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