010
FXUS64 KHGX 231816
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1216 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN ON MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH.
- THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.
- A STRONGER, REINFORCING FRONT PUSHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING,
BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS JUST IN TIME FOR
THANKSGIVING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1158 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2025
RIDGING SITS ALOFT TODAY WITH A STALLED BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF
WATERS. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. HIGHS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE 1-5 DEGREES COOLER ON THE
WHOLE, THOUGH STILL IN THE 70S/LOWER 80S. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
SHOULD SEE A MORE NOTICEABLE RISE WITH THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE WITH
EARLY MORNING LOWS FORECASTED IN THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S.
MORE ACTIVE WEATHER IS STILL SLATED FOR MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO FILL THROUGH THE PLAINS. PWS SHOULD CLIMB TO
1.3" AND PEAK AT UPWARDS OF 1.9", GIVING PLENTY OF MOISTURE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS LEADING UP TO A COLD FRONT. SE TEXAS
REMAINS ON THE PERIPHERAL OF THE FRONT-RIGHT ENTRANCE TO AN UPPER
LEVEL JET STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. THOUGH
AS MENTIONED BEFORE, SE TEXAS STILL REMAINS RELATIVELY DISTANT FROM
THE STRONGEST FORCING. STILL, DEEPER MOISTURE WITH A 20-40 KNOT LLJ
WILL STILL PROVIDE AN AVENUE FOR SOME ISOLATED HIGHER RAINFALL
TOTALS, ESPECIALLY ON THE NORTHERN END OF OUR CWA. BULK SHEAR RANGES
FROM 35-50 KNOTS AND NOW INSTABILITY IS LOOKING MUCH MORE
FAVORABLE IN CAMS, SHOWING ML CAPE OF AROUND 1000-1800 J/KG. 1KM
SRH ALSO LOOK FAVORABLE, EXCEEDING 200 M2S2 IN AREAS
NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE HOUSTON. THOUGH TIMING ADDS A LAYER OF
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW THIS SITUATION WILL UNFOLD. CURRENTLY, MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH REACHING SE TEXAS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. BEYOND
THAT, MODELS ARE SPLIT ON HOW QUICKLY THE FROPA WILL PROGRESS.
AMONG THE CAMS, HRRR AND ARW ARE FASTER, CARRYING IT OFF THE COAST
BY TUESDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE, THE FV3 AND NAM ARE MUCH SLOWER,
PLACING IT OFF THE COAST AROUND TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MORE
INCLINED TO LEAN TOWARDS A SLOWER FROPA, THOUGH GENERALLY EXPECT
IT TO PASS BETWEEN THOSE TWO TIME PERIODS. IT'S VERY MUCH POSSIBLE
THAT SOME STRONGER STORMS PERSIST INTO TUESDAY WITH THE FROPA
(ESPECIALLY IF IT'S SLOWER), THOUGH THE LOSS OF DYNAMICS MAKES
SUCH A SCENARIO LESS LIKELY.
RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH MONDAY CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD,
FORECASTED TO BE GENERALLY UNDER 1 INCH, THOUGH HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 2-
3 CANNOT CANNOT BE RULED OUT EITHER. WPC HAS NEARLY ALL OF SE
TEXAS UNDER A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1/4) RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR
MONDAY. DRIER SOILS WILL LARGELY MITIGATE FLOODING ISSUES, MAKING
PONDING ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR STREET FLOODING A REMOTE POSSIBILITY
WITH ANY TRAINING STORMS, OR IN URBAN/AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE.
SPC HAS A SLIGHT (LEVEL 2/5) RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IN PLACE OVER
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF OUR CWA WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA UNDER
A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1/5) RISK. ALL SEVERE HAZARDS ARE STILL IN
PLAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS SHOULD PUSH
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL USHER IN COOLER AND MUCH MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER FOR
THANKSGIVING. MORNING LOWS FOR THE HOLIDAY ARE FORECASTED TO BE
IN THE 30S/UPPER 40S INLAND AND 50S NEAR THE COAST. DAYTIME HIGHS
ON THANKSGIVING ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE IN THE 60S/LOWER 70S.
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE DRY TOO WITH NO RAIN EXPECTED. HEADING
INTO FRIDAY, WE'LL SEE ONSHORE FLOW RETURN AND TEMPERATURES/RAIN
CHANCES RISE INTO THE WEEKEND.
03
AVIATION
(12Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 544 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.
NNE WINDS AT 5-10KT THIS MORNING WILL BECOME ESE BY MID MORNING
AND THEN SE AROUND MIDNIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
ACROSS SE TX TODAY AND LOWER DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON SUNDAY
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. ISO SHOWERS MAY BEGIN OVER CLL/UTS
AROUND SUNRISE TIMEFRAME ON MONDAY.
COTTO
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1158 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2025
WINDS WILL SHIFT EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY LATER TODAY AS THE REMNANTS
OF THE STALLED BOUNDARY LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. RAIN CHANCES
RETURN LATE TONIGHT, RISING INTO MONDAY AS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA. CAUTION FLAGS MAY BE NEEDED EARLY MONDAY
MORNING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AS WINDS STRENGTHEN. THIS MAY ALSO
BRING A HIGHER RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TO GULF-FACING BEACHES DURING
THIS SAME PERIOD. RAIN CHANCES TAPER OFF ON TUESDAY AS THE NEXT COLD
FRONT PUSHES DEEPER INTO THE GULF. MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS DEVELOP WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A REINFORCING FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA, LIKELY NECESSITATING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. THESE STRONGER OFFSHORE WINDS MAY BRING
NEGATIVE WATER LEVELS AT LOW TIDE IN THE UPPER PORTION OF
GALVESTON BAY. ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS BY FRIDAY.
03
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 64 81 58 76 / 20 80 80 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 65 83 66 80 / 10 50 80 40
GALVESTON (GLS) 70 79 70 79 / 10 30 60 30
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...03
AVIATION...COTTO
MARINE...03
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