354
FXUS64 KHGX 240604
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1204 AM CST MON NOV 24 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE
NORTH OF I-10.
- A WEAK FRONT AND GRADUALLY WEAKENING, REMNANT SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
SAG TOWARD THE COAST LATER TONIGHT.
- A STRONGER, REINFORCING FRONT PUSHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING,
BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS JUST IN TIME FOR THANKSGIVING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CST MON NOV 24 2025
MID-UPPER TROF WILL CONTINUE MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE PLAINS TODAY.
IN THE LLVLS, 25-35KT H85 WINDS WILL DRAW 1.5-1.8" PW'S AHEAD OF AN
N-S ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY TOWARD
WESTERN PARTS OF THE REGION LATER IN THE DAY. LOOK FOR SOME
SHRA/TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THIS BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON, AS IT
PROGRESSES TOWARD THE BRAZOS VALLEY AFTER ABOUT 2PM OR SO. MAIN
CONCERN, HOWEVER, WILL BE ANY DISCREET CELLS THAN INITIATE IN
ADVANCE. THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WHEREAS SOME
OF THESE ISOLATED CELLS MIGHT BE CAPABLE OF BECOMING SEVERE WITH ALL
MODES OF SEVERE WX A POSSIBILITY. LOCATIONS NORTH OF ABOUT COLUMBUS-
CLEVELAND MIGHT BE THE PLACE TO WATCH BETWEEN 2-10PM. ELSEWHERE,
THERE'S PROBABLY A LOWER, BUT NON-ZERO THREAT OF SOME STRONGER CELLS
MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT AS STORMS MAINLY CONSOLIDATE ALONG THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY AND THE THREAT OF THE DISCREET ACTIVITY LOWERS. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL BECOME ORIENTED MORE W-E WITH TIME, AND LLVL JET
WEAKENS AND BECOMES SW MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO DIMINISHING
INTENSITY AS REMNANTS TRACKS CLOSER TO THE COAST OVERNIGHT. SO
OVERALL, KEEP AN EYE ON THE STAND-ALONE CELLS THIS AFTERNOON &
EVENING WHERE SEVERE STORMS ARE MORE PROBABLE. ELSEWHERE ALONG THE
BROKEN BAND, I'D LOOK FOR THE MAIN ISSUES TO BE SOME 25-50MPH GUSTS
AND MAYBE SOME HAIL.
HIRES DATA SHOWS THIS FRONT SAGGING OFF THE COAST EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING ENDING THE POPS INLAND...THOUGH SOME OF THE GLOBALS SHOW IT
TEMPORARILY STALLING OUT DURING THE DAY WITH SOME LINGERING SCT SHRA
CHANCES IN THE COASTAL COUNTIES DURING THE DAY (KIND OF SIMILAR TO
THE LAST FRONT). DON'T HAVE STRONG CONFIDENCE EITHER WAY, THOUGH I'D
PROBABLY LEAN CLOSER TO THE HIRES GUIDANCE ATTM.
STRONGER PUSH OF COOL, DRY AIR ARRIVES LATE TUE NIGHT AND WED
MORNING WHICH SHOULD BRING SOME NICE SEASONABLE WX THROUGH TURKEY
DAY.
ONSHORE WINDS RESUME FRIDAY...DRAWING DEEPER GULF MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION (AND WARMER TEMPS) THIS WEEKEND. GLOBAL MODELS AND BLENDS ARE
ALL MOSTLY BULLISH SHOWING A FAIRLY WET WEEKEND...BUT WITH A MAINLY
ZONAL FLOW AND LACK OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY/FORCING MECHANISM IN THE
VICINITY, I HAVE A BIT OF SKEPTICISM AT THIS POINT FOR TOTAL
WASHOUTS. 47
AVIATION
(00Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 534 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2025
CEILINGS FOR WESTERN TERMINALS (CLL/LBX) ARE BEGINNING TO
FLUCTUATE RIGHT ON THE LINE BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR. EXPECT GRADUALLY
DECREASING CEILINGS FROM WEST TO EAST GOING INTO THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED BY 09Z/MONDAY. ISOLATED INSTANCES OF IFR CEILINGS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT...NOT NECESSARILY EXPECTING VISIBILITIES TO BE
MUCH OF AN ISSUE WITH UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
REMAINING A BIT ELEVATED OVERNIGHT. SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL BEGIN
PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON, AND
THIS HAS BEEN COVERED WITH VCSH AT ALL AREA TERMINALS. MVFR
CEILINGS WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE IMPROVING BACK TO VFR. ALSO ANTICIPATING
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BE ON THE GUSTY SIDE WITH SUSTAINED WINDS IN
THE 10-15 KT RANGE WITH 20-25 KT GUSTS.
A LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL ENTER THE PICTURE IN THE MID
AFTERNOON (AROUND OR AFTER 21Z) FROM THE NORTHWEST. SOME OF THESE
STORMS COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE I-10 CORRIDOR AS IT PUSHES SOUTHWARD THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE
TIMING IS A BIT UNCERTAIN, SO THE TEMPO'S IN THIS TAF PACKAGE ARE
MORE OF A GENERAL CONSENSUS BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE.
THESE TEMPO'S SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS AND MVFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES DUE TO THESE STORMS. EXPECT THE 06Z TAF
PACKAGE TO ADD ADDITIONAL CLARITY ON THE TIMING AS WELL AS INCLUDE
TIMING OF THE LINE OF STORMS FOR THE REMAINING TERMINALS.
BATISTE
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CST MON NOV 24 2025
LOOK FOR INCREASING SOUTHEAST AND BUILDING SEAS OVERNIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY. MAY NEED SOME CAUTION FLAGS WEST OF FREEPORT IN THE MORNING.
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS LATER TODAY,
WITH THE TAIL END OF SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS TOWARD THE
COAST MONDAY NIGHT. CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM IN THE
GALVESTON BAY AREA BETWEEN ABOUT 10PM AND 5AM. RAIN CHANCES START TO
TAPER OFF TUESDAY DEPENDING ON WHEN A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE
COAST. A SECONDARY, STRONGER PUSH OF COOL DRY AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
WATERS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. NORTH WINDS
SHOULD INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS AS THIS OCCURS ALONG WITH BUILDING
SEAS OFFSHORE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE REQUIRED. ONSHORE
WINDS RESUME AND INCREASE LATER IN THE WEEK. 47
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 83 57 76 51 / 90 70 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 85 65 80 56 / 40 60 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 81 70 79 61 / 30 70 30 20
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...47
AVIATION...BATISTE
MARINE...47
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