370
FXUS64 KHGX 210526
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1126 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
- NIGHTTIME AND EARLY MORNING TRAVELERS, AS WELL AS MARINERS,
WILL NEED TO BE ALERT TO ABRUPT CHANGES IN VISIBILITY. DAILY
CHANCES FOR OVERNIGHT AND MORNING FOG BEGIN TONIGHT. THE MAIN
THREAT FOR FOG WILL BE DURING THE NIGHTTIME AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS.
- LONG STRETCH OF UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES
10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
DAILY RECORD HIGH VALUES, AND A FEW RECORDS MAY FALL THROUGHOUT
THE WEEK.
- A WEAK, BACKDOOR FRONT WILL HELP KEEP SUNDAY FROM BEING QUITE AS
WARM AS OTHER DAYS, AND ALSO BRING AN OUTSIDE SHOT AT SOME
SHOWERS AND A STRAY THUNDERSTORM.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2025
IT'S SATURDAY NIGHT, JUST A HANDFUL OF NIGHTS BEFORE CHRISTMAS,
AND LOTS OF COASTAL WEBCAMS ARE SHOWING NOTHING BUT WHITE...FOG.
YES, WITH A QUICK RETURN TO ONSHORE FLOW AND DEWPOINTS QUICKLY
SURGING BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S AND EVEN LOWER 70S IN SPOTS. A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR THE BAYS, NEARSHORE
GULF WATERS, AS WELL AS ALL ISLANDS AND PENINSULAS BEYOND THE
INTRACOASTAL WATERWAY. WHILE THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW
DENSE OVERNIGHT FOG WILL GET BEYOND THE IMPACT ALREADY BEING SEEN
FROM SEA FOG, THERE MAY BE A NEED TO EXPAND THAT DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FURTHER INLAND, PARTICULARLY CLOSER TO DAWN.
NOW, WHILE UNSEASONABLE HEAT AND HUMIDITY ALONG WITH FOG POTENTIAL
WILL BE THE MAIN STORY OF THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS,
SUNDAY WILL PROVIDE US A LITTLE BIT OF A DETOUR, ALBEIT ONLY IN
THE MOST MINOR OF WAYS. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS NORTH OF THE AREA,
AND IS MAKING ITS WAY IN OUR DIRECTION. HOWEVER, AS STRONG RIDGING
BUILDS IN OVERHEAD, IT'S LOSING STEAM QUICKLY, AND WILL LARGELY
DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING OUR AREA. HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
LEFT OF IT THAT WINDS NORTH OF I-10 SHOULD BECOME VARIABLE, EVEN A
LITTLE NORTHERLY FOR A FEW HOURS SUNDAY, AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
HANDFUL OF SHOWERS AND EVEN A STRAY THUNDERSTORM. TEMPERATURES
ALSO LOOK TO BE A LITTLE LESS HOT IN THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF OUR
AREA, SO LOCATIONS LIKE CALDWELL, BRYAN/COLLEGE STATION, AND
MADISONVILLE MAY STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH ABOVE 70 DEGREES IN THE
AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL NOT BE A CONCERN ANYWHERE BEYOND SUNDAY.
CLOSER TO THE COAST, WE'LL STILL BE LOOKING FOR HIGHS REACHING UP
TO AROUND 80 DEGREES, AND NEAR RECORD VALUES.
OF COURSE, EVEN GETTING ABOVE 70 DEGREES IS ALREADY PUTTING US
ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE DECEMBER, AND THIS IS
GOING TO BE THE "COOL" DAY. FOR THE MOST PART, AN ALMOST SUMMER-
LOOKING TYPE OF RIDGE SETUP WILL DOMINATE THE WEEK LEADING INTO
CHRISTMAS, AND WE'LL HAVE TEMPERATURES TO MATCH. THE ONE PERK HERE
IS THAT WE ARE AT THE WINTER SOLSTICE, SO SOLAR INSOLATION WILL BE
AS WEAK AS IT GETS. STILL, HIGHS 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE AND
PUSHING UP INTO THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF DAILY RECORDS WILL BE THE NORM
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. BOTH THE NAEFS AND EURO ENSEMBLE HAVE
MEAN 500 MB AND 700 MB HEIGHTS AT MAX VALUES FOR THE TIME OF YEAR
RIDING WELL INTO THE WEEK. THE EURO ENSEMBLE'S EXTREME FORECAST
INDEX HAS VALUES IN OUR AREA NEAR AND ABOVE 0.9 - AND ON THIS
INDEX, SOMETHING ABOVE 0.5 IS SUGGESTIVE OF HIGH-END TEMPS, AND
VALUES ABOVE 0.8 ARE STRONGLY SUPPORTIVE OF HIGH-END TEMPS.
BECAUSE ONSHORE FLOW IS HELPING TO BOOST OVERNIGHT LOWS AND
MOISTURE, WE'RE ALSO SEEING EXTREMELY HIGH DEWPOINTS FOR THE TIME
OF YEAR, AND AT LEAST FOR NOW ARE WELL ABOVE WATER TEMPERATURES
FOR COASTAL WATERS. THIS IS WHAT IS GIVING US OUR DENSE SEA FOG
TONIGHT, AND WILL HELP FUEL FOG CONCERNS DEEP INTO THE WEEK.
HOWEVER, BECAUSE SEA FOG TENDS TO IMPACT COASTAL AREAS, LOCATIONS
FARTHER INLAND WILL NEED TO BE EVALUATED NIGHT TO NIGHT FOR FOG
POTENTIAL, AS THERE MAY BE SOMETHING AS SIMPLE AS HIGHER WINDS,
SOME CLOUDS, OR A BIT OF DRY AIR JUST ABOVE SURFACE THAT COULD
DISRUPT FOG EVENTS FARTHER INLAND. ALSO, DENSE FOG AT THE COAST
ISN'T NECESSARILY A SLAM DUNK, EITHER. THE WINDFLOW WILL HELP
FILTER IN SOME WARMER, OFFSHORE WATERS IN, AND THE NEAR-RECORD
TEMPERATURES WILL HELP WARM THE WATERS IN PLACE. SO, THESE SAME
MECHANISMS FUELING FOG EVENTS MAY ALSO HELP CONTRIBUTE TO THEIR
END. HOWEVER, ALL OF THIS RELIES ON LESS PREDICTABLE, OFTEN
MESOSCALE FEATURES THAT AREN'T WELL PREDICTED AT LONG RANGE, WHICH
IS WHY THIS WILL LIKELY BECOME A PRACTICE OF RE-EVALUATING EACH
NIGHT.
AVIATION
(00Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 547 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2025
DECREASED CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES MADE THEIR WAY INTO LBX AND
GLS JUST BEFORE THE ISSUANCE OF THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE, AND THAT
SERVES AS A SIGN OF WHAT'S TO COME OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
CONFIDENCE PERSISTS ON WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT
DUE TO PATCHY TO AREAS OF DENSE FOG ALONG WITH SEA FOG ALONG THE
COAST. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR NORTH THE FOG WILL BE,
BUT AT LEAST IFR/LIFR CEILINGS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS. CEILINGS WILL TAKE A WHILE TO RETURN TO VFR WITH AN
INITIAL CLIMB TO MVFR AROUND 16Z/SUNDAY, THEN VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING AROUND 20-21Z/SUNDAY.
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY PUSHES INTO SOUTHEAST TX. THIS
FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL OUT AROUND CXO OR NORTHWARD, BUT THERE
WILL BE A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH IT.
ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SPORADIC SHOWERS MAINLY
EAST OF I-45 SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FOR NOW, THERE ARE NO RAIN MENTIONS
IN ANY OF THE TAFS DUE TO THE LOW COVERAGE AND SINCE ANY RAIN
WOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. ANOTHER ROUND OF DECREASED
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS IS EXPECTED GOING INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING.
BATISTE
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2025
SEA FOG IS OCCURRING ON AREA BAYS AND NEARSHORE GULF WATERS,
BECOMING DENSE IN PATCHES - PARTICULARLY AROUND THE LOWER PORTIONS
OF GALVESTON BAY. HOWEVER, RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY ALSO SHOW FOG BECOMING THICKER ON PORTIONS OF MATAGORDA
BAY AS WELL. THE POTENTIAL FOR OVERNIGHT AND MORNING FOG WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED EACH NIGHT INTO THE NEW WEEK. BEYOND THAT,
CONDITIONS WILL BE WARM AND RELATIVELY CALM WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND SEAS 3 FEET OR LESS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 58 72 56 77 / 0 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 67 79 63 78 / 0 10 10 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 64 72 64 70 / 10 20 20 20
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LUCHS
AVIATION...BATISTE
MARINE...LUCHS
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