954
FXUS64 KHGX 212307
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
507 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- LONG STRETCH OF UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES
10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
DAILY RECORD HIGH VALUES, AND A FEW RECORDS MAY FALL THROUGHOUT
THE WEEK.
- DAILY VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS DUE TO FOG AND SEA FOG, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE BAYS AND COASTAL AREAS. THE MAIN THREAT FOR FOG WILL
BE DURING THE NIGHTTIME AND EARLY MORNING HOURS, ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2025
ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES WHILE A MIDLEVEL RIDGE OVER BAJA
CALIFORNIA/WESTERN MEXICO GRADUALLY MIGRATES EASTWARD TOWARDS TEXAS.
HEIGHTS WITHIN THIS RIDGE ARE STILL ANTICIPATED TO REACH 586-590
DAM, WHICH IS PARTICULARLY HIGH FOR DECEMBER. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT HAS STALLED OUT OVER THE BRAZOS VALLEY AND SHOULD LIFT NORTH
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK. SOME SPARES SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED, MAINLY
NEAR THE COAST, BUT ON THE WHOLE ACTIVITY IS LOW. IN ALL, WE'RE
STILL EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 70S/LOWER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S/LOWER 60S. THIS STILL PUTS TEMPERATURES AROUND 10-20 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR DECEMBER.
WATER TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED, BUT ARE STILL IN THE LOWER 60S
ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS/BAYS WHILE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS
COVER THE MAJORITY OF SE TEXAS. WE SAW LARGE AREAS OF DENSE FOG AND
SEA FOG EARLIER THIS MORNING, AND WHILE MUCH OF IT HAS CLEARED, SOME
ISOLATED LINGERING POCKETS MAY STILL BE IN PLACE. AS ALREADY
MENTIONED, THERE'S REALLY NO WEATHER SYSTEMS ON THE HORIZON THAT
WILL DISRUPT ONSHORE FLOW (AT LEAST WITHIN THE NEXT 7 DAYS... COULD
SEE A FROPA JUST BEYOND THAT). AS A RESULT, SEA FOG (AND IN PART
INLAND RADIATION FOG) WILL BE A DAILY OCCURRENCE UNTIL WATER
TEMPERATURES CAN CLIMB UP TO DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES. TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY SEE THE GREATEST IMPACTS FROM
WIDESPREAD SEA FOG DUE TO THE HIGH DEWPOINT DEPRESSION COMPARED
TO WATER TEMPS, ALONG WITH AN EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY WIND SHIFT EARLY
IN THE MORNING. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME POCKETS OF SEA FOG
PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE WHOLE DAY WITHOUT CLEARING IN SOME SPOTS.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WILL PROBABLY SEE ANOTHER PERIOD
OF FAIRLY LOW VISIBILITIES FROM FOG AND SEA FOG AS MODELS SHOW
HIGHER DEWPOINTS THAT PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED, ALONG WITH HIGHER
SREF AND HREF PROBABILITIES FOR DENSE FOG. AS WATER TEMPERATURES
WARM WITH EACH PASSING DAY, THE EXTEND, INTENSITY AND DURATION OF
SEA FOG SHOULD DECREASE.
CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME POCKETS OF
FOG, THOUGH PERHAPS NOT AS DENSE/WIDESPREAD AS DAYS PRIOR. STILL,
THIS FOG COULD TECHNICALLY GIVE FOLKS A "WHITE" CHRISTMAS IF YOUR
DEFINITION OF SUCH IS VERY FORGIVING AND IGNORES PTYPE ENTIRELY.
WARM AND HUMID WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE THE NEXT COLD FRONT *TENTATIVELY* PENCILED
IN FOR AROUND SUNDAY, WHICH SHOULD GIVE US AT LEAST ONE MORE
COOL-DOWN BEFORE THE END OF THE YEAR.
03
AVIATION
(00Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 507 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2025
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS PERSIST FOR MOST LOCATIONS, BUT
LIFR CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING AT GLS DUE TO SEA FOG. WIDESPREAD
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EVENTUALLY OVERNIGHT, BUT THE
TIMING OF WHEN THIS OCCURS ON A PER-TERMINAL BASIS DEPENDS ON
THEIR PROXIMITY TO A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AS OF 23Z/SUNDAY, THE
FRONT IS CURRENTLY NEAR CXO AND IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO GO ANY
FURTHER SOUTH THAN POTENTIALLY IAH. AS A RESULT, THE SOUTHERN
TERMINALS WILL SEE DECREASING CEILINGS/VISIBILITES A FEW HOURS
QUICKER THAN THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. WITH WINDS BEING MUCH LIGHTER
TONIGHT, DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED TO POSE MORE OF AN IMPACT TO MOST
TERMINALS ESPECIALLY IN THE 09Z-15Z TIMEFRAME. OUTSIDE OF GLS,
VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE BY 16Z WITH MVFR CEILINGS LINGERING TILL
18Z-20Z. SEA FOG IS EXPECTED TO LINGER AROUND GLS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY, SO IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.
HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATED TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS MONDAY MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON, BUT THE
PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF IT IN ANY OF
THE TAFS AT THE MOMENT.
BATISTE
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2025
VISIBILITY HAS IMPROVED THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH POCKETS OF SEA FOG
ARE LINGERING IN PORTIONS OF THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE GULF WATERS.
SOME POCKETS OF DENSE FOG PERSIST, THOUGH EVEN IF THEY CLEAR OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS, DENSE SEA FOG WILL LIKELY FILL BACK IN THIS
EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE POTENTIAL FOR OVERNIGHT AND MORNING
FOG WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED EACH NIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. BEYOND THAT, CONDITIONS WILL BE WARM AND RELATIVELY CALM WITH
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS 3 FEET OR LESS.
03
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 58 76 64 79 / 0 0 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 64 79 65 79 / 10 10 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 67 74 63 74 / 10 10 10 0
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST MONDAY FOR GMZ330-335-350-355.
DISCUSSION...03
AVIATION...BATISTE
MARINE...03
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