341
FXUS64 KHGX 221834
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1234 PM CST MON DEC 22 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
- LONG STRETCH OF UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES
10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
DAILY RECORD HIGH VALUES, AND A FEW RECORDS MAY FALL THROUGHOUT
THE WEEK.
- DAILY VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS DUE TO FOG AND SEA FOG, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE BAYS AND COASTAL AREAS. THE MAIN THREAT FOR FOG WILL
BE DURING THE NIGHTTIME AND EARLY MORNING HOURS, ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- LAST COLD FRONT OF THE YEAR ANTICIPATED SOME TIME SUNDAY/MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CST MON DEC 22 2025
SAME PATTERN CONTINUES WITH ONSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE WITH A 586-
588 DAM MIDLEVEL RIDGE MOVING EAST THROUGH TEXAS TODAY. ANTICIPATING
TEMPERATURES 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S/LOWER
80S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S/60S. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL HIT OR
BREAK RECORDS AT SOME LOCATIONS.
SEA FOG REMAINS THE MOST INTERESTING FACET OF THE FORECAST IN THE
WAKE OF YET ANOTHER MORNING OF WIDESPREAD FOG ADVISORIES. AS WE TAKE
A PEAK AT WATER TEMPERATURES, THEY HAVE WARMED SLIGHTLY, THOUGH
GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE MID TO LOWER 60S. THE GALVESTON BAY ENTRANCE
(NORTH JETTY) HAS BEEN SLOW TO WARM, READING 60.8F, PERHAPS AS A
RESULT OF SOME COOLER WATER TEMPS BEING ADVECTED FROM EASTERLY WINDS.
STILL OBSERVING DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA (MOSTLY ALONG/SOUTH OF I-10).
STILL SOME LOOMING POCKETS OF SEA FOG ACROSS THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE
WATERS PRESENTLY THIS AFTERNOON, SO IT'S NOT ENTIRELY IMPOSSIBLE
THAT THIS FOG MAY LINGER THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE DAYTIME INTO
TONIGHT, AS BACKED UP BY MODEL GUIDANCE. I WOULD ANTICIPATE AREAS OF
DENSE SEA FOG TO FILL IN AGAIN TONIGHT, SLOWLY INTRUDING INLAND
OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY.
THE EXTEND, INTENSITY AND DURATION OF SEA FOG WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
TO BE RATHER SEVERE THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK. WORKING IN OUR FAVOR,
MODEL BLENDS LIKE THE NBM SUGGEST LOWER SPATIAL COVERAGE FOR SEA FOG
AFTER THIS POINT WITH THE GAP BETWEEN THE NBM DEWPOINTS AND RTOFS
SST ONLY AROUND 1.0-2.0F. PLUS, SHALLOW AREAS COULD VERY MUCH SEE
THEIR WATER TEMPERATURES WARM FASTER THAN MODELS SHOW. HOWEVER,
THERE ARE PLENTY OF SIGNS TO SUGGESTS THAT SEE FOG COULD STILL BE
RATHER POTENT BEYOND MID WEEK. PRESENTLY, MODEL WATER TEMPERATURES
ARE WARMER THAN OBSERVED TEMPERATURES AT THE GALVESTON BAY ENTRANCE.
MODELS ALSO SHOW WINDS ORIENTED FURTHER E/ESE, WHICH AGAIN WOULD
HELP KEEP THE WATER TEMPERATURES ON THE COOLER SIDE. IN ADDITION,
THAT TD/TW GAP OVER THE BAYS/WATER IN THE NBM IS LIKELY A TAD LOWER
THAN REALITY, AS THE MODEL MEMBERS THAT MAKE UP THE NBM ALREADY
INCORPORATE WATER TEMPERATURE INTO THEIR MODELED DEWPOINT FORECAST.
OFTEN IN THESE SEA FOG PATTERNS, YOU CAN SEE A DIVOT IN DEWPOINTS IN
THESE AREAS AS MODELS ATTEMPT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE COOLER WATER
TEMPERATURES. SOMETIMES THEY CAN BE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH LOWERING
DEWPOINTS, THUS MAKING THE TD/TW DEPRESSION APPEAR SMALLER. AGAIN,
THE GLS BAY ENTRANCE IS READING A WATER TEMPERATURE OF ~61F, WHILE
THE GALVESTON ASOS HAS A DEWPOINT OF 70F, APPROXIMATELY A 9F
DIFFERENCE COMPARED TO MODEL GUIDANCE, WHICH WOULD SHOW IT AS ~3F IF
SAMPLED AT THE BAY ENTRANCE.
THE MAIN THING TO TAKE AWAY FROM AT THIS IS THAT SEA FOG WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO BE A DAILY ISSUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND
INTO PORTIONS OF THE WEEKEND, AT LEAST UNTIL WATER TEMPERATURES WARM
SUFFICIENTLY TO LIMIT IT. WHILE IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE TO SEE SOME
IMPROVEMENTS AFTER MID WEEK, DENSE SEA FOG WILL LIKELY RETURN IN
SOME FORM EACH NIGHT, THOUGH PATCHY AND LESS WIDESPREAD AS THE WATER
TEMPERATURES WARM. IT'S SAFE TO SAY THAT CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS
DAY WILL BE FAIRLY FOGGY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AS SOME OF THIS
SEA FOG ADVECTS INLAND AND MESHES WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING & RADIATION
FOG.
GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE THROUGH
SE TEXAS ON SUNDAY, GIVING US ONE LAST COOL-DOWN WITH SHOWERS/STORMS
BEFORE END OF THE YEAR. THIS WILL BRING A MORE DEFINITIVE END TO
THIS CURRENT STRETCH OF SEA FOG, IF WARMING WATER TEMPERATURES
HASN'T ALREADY DONE SO BY THAT POINT.
03
AVIATION
(12Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 511 AM CST MON DEC 22 2025
MOST SITES CURRENTLY UNDER LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CLOUD
DECKS AS WELL AS AREAS OF PATCHY TO DENSE FOG. THESE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 14-15Z AND WILL IMPROVE TO
MVFR TO VFR THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE MORNING AS FOG BURNS OFF
AND CIGS GRADUALLY RISE. CONDITIONS MAY BE SLOW TO RECOVER AT GLS
AND LBX DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF SEA FOG CONTINUING OVER THE BAYS
AND NEARSHORE WATERS. THERE IS A WINDOW WHERE CLOUDS SCATTER OUT
FOR SEVERAL LOCATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS,
HOWEVER, BKN/OVC DECKS WILL RETURN AND LOWER ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT
INTO TUE MORNING. PATCHY TO DENSE FOG WILL ALSO BRING VIS BACK
DOWN FOR SEVERAL LOCATIONS, IN PARTICULAR FOR SITES SOUTH OF IAH.
S-SE WINDS WILL BE 5-10 KTS TODAY AND 5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT.
COTTO
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CST MON DEC 22 2025
VISIBILITY HAS IMPROVED THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH POCKETS OF SEA FOG
ARE LINGERING IN PORTIONS OF THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE GULF WATERS,
ESPECIALLY EAST OF FREEPORT. SOME POCKETS OF DENSE FOG PERSIST,
THOUGH EVEN IF THEY CLEAR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, DENSE SEA FOG
WILL LIKELY FILL BACK IN THIS EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE
POTENTIAL FOR OVERNIGHT AND MORNING FOG WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
EACH NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. BEYOND THAT, CONDITIONS WILL BE WARM AND
RELATIVELY CALM WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS 3 FEET OR LESS.
03
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 66 79 63 77 / 0 0 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 66 78 63 78 / 10 0 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 64 75 62 75 / 0 0 10 0
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR GMZ330-335-350-355.
DISCUSSION...03
AVIATION...COTTO
MARINE...03
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