998
FXUS64 KHGX 240002
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
602 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- LONG STRETCH OF UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES
10-25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
DAILY RECORD HIGH VALUES, AND A FEW RECORDS MAY FALL THROUGHOUT
THE WEEK.
- DAILY VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS DUE TO FOG AND SEA FOG, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE BAYS AND COASTAL AREAS. THE MAIN THREAT FOR FOG WILL
BE DURING THE NIGHTTIME AND EARLY MORNING HOURS, ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
- LAST COLD FRONT OF THE YEAR ANTICIPATED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
ON SUNDAY WITH COLDER WEATHER SLATED FOR MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
NOT MUCH DIFFERENT FROM YESTERDAY... SAME PATTERN CONTINUES WITH
ONSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND 586-588 DAM MIDLEVEL RIDGE OVERHEAD.
ANTICIPATING TEMPERATURES 10-25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN
THE 70S/LOWER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE 60S THROUGH SATURDAY. THESE
TEMPERATURES WILL HIT OR BREAK RECORDS AT SOME LOCATIONS.
MUCH OF YESTURDAY'S ANALYSIS WITH REGARDS TO SEA FOG STILL APPLIES
WITH ONLY A FEW DIFFERENCES. WATER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM.
AROUND MATAGORDA BAY TW HOVERS AROUND THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S. AT
AND EAST OF FREEPORT, WATER TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE MID/LOWER
60S. THE GALVESTON BAY ENTRANCE (NORTH JETTY) NOW SITS AT 61.7F,
~0.9F INCREASE FROM YESTERDAY (60.8F). WINDS ARE FIRMLY E THIS
AFTERNOON, LIKELY ADVECTING SOME COOLER WATER TEMPERATURES INTO THE
AREA TO LIMIT THE EXTEND OF WARMING. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
60S/LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS CAN STILL BE OBSERVED ACROSS MUCH OF SE
TEXAS. INLAND FOG WASN'T AS IMPRESSIVE THIS MORNING, THOUGH THE
COASTAL PLAINS STILL GOT WIDESPREAD SUB 1/4 MILE VISIBILITY FROM SEA
FOG ADVECTING INLAND. PATCHES OF SEA FOG ARE LOOMING OVER THE
NEARSHORE WATERS (HIGH ISLAND-FREEPORT) THIS AFTERNOON... AND I
WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED IF SOME OF THESE DENSE PATCHES HOLD ON THROUGH
THE REST OF THE DAYTIME.
NBM AND SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE NOW SHOW HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN
DENSE SEA FOG BEYOND MID WEEK ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. NOT TOO
SURPRISING THAT IT'S SHIFTING COURSE, AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
YESTERDAY, THERE WERE SEVERAL FACTORS SUGGESTING THAT MODEL GUIDANCE
WAS POTENTIALLY UNDERDOING THE FULL EXTEND OF SEA FOG. FIRST, RTOFS
SST HAS WATER TEMPERATURES AT THE GALVESTON BAY ENTRANCE AT 62.4F
WHILE THE NORTH JETTY (AGAIN) IS SHOWING 61.7F (~0.7F DIFFERENCE).
NBM DEWPOINTS FOR THIS SAME POINT ARE BEING SAMPLED AS 63F EVEN
THOUGH THE GALVESTON ASOS IS READING DEWPOINTS AT 69F. THIS DROP IN
DEWPOINT STEMS FROM MODEL/ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IN THE NBM AND THEIR
ATTEMPTS TO INCORPORATE THE EFFECTS OF THE COOLER WATER
TEMPERATURES. AGAIN, IT'S IMPORT TO KEEP THIS IN MIND WHEN
ATTEMPTING THE GAUGE THE EXTEND OF SEA FOG, AS THEY WILL MAKE THE
TD/TW GAP APPEAR SMALLER OVER THESE COOLER SPOTS. BOTTOM LINE, MODEL
GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST THE DIFFERENCE IN DEWPOINT/WATER TEMP TO BE
AROUND 0-2F, WHEN IN REALITY THE GAP IS STILL AROUND 7F IN THE
COOLEST SPOTS.
THIS EVENING INTO THE MORNING OF CHRISTMAS EVE WILL LIKELY SEE FOG
RETURN, WIDESPREAD AND DENSE OVER THE WATERS, BAYS & COASTAL PLAINS,
BECOMING THINNER AREAS/PATCHES FURTHER INLAND. FOG WILL ERODE DURING
THE DAYTIME AGAIN, BUT SOME POCKETS WILL LOOM OVER THE NEARSHORE
WATERS AND BAYS, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS EAST OF FREEPORT WHERE THE
WATERS ARE COOLEST. FOG WILL ROLL BACK IN AGAIN THE NIGHT OF
CHRISTMAS EVE, RESULTING IN A FOGGY CHRISTMAS MORNING FOR SE TEXAS.
SREF, HREF, AND REFS ARE ALL SHOWING STRONG SIGNALS FOR FOG DURING
THIS PERIOD. AGAIN THIS WILL PRIMARILY IMPACT THE COASTAL PLAINS,
THOUGH MANY AREAS SOUTH OF US-59 WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE THE TROPICAL
EQUIVALENT OF A WHITE CHRISTMAS.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL MOST LIKELY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF
FOG, THOUGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY EARLY IN
THE MORNING. THIS ORIENTATION IS OVERALL LESS FAVORABLE FOR SEA FOG,
AND PAIRING IT WITH THE SLOWLY WARMING WATER TEMPERATURES, WE SHOULD
(HOPEFULLY) SEE THE FULL EXTEND & INTENSITY OF SEA FOG BECOME MORE
LIMITED AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS
CURRENTLY FORECASTED TO MOVE THROUGH SE TEXAS ON SUNDAY, PRODUCING
SHOWERS/STORMS AND PROVIDING ONE LAST COOL-DOWN BEFORE END OF THE
YEAR. THIS WILL BRING A MORE DEFINITIVE END TO THIS CURRENT STRETCH
OF SEA FOG AS STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT.
03
AVIATION
(00Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 522 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
A PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS WITH FEW TO SCT LOW CLOUDS BETWEEN
500-1500FT WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO, BUT IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN LATER TONIGHT WITH LOW CIGS DOWN TO 500FT
OR LOWER AND AREAS OF DENSE FOG BRINGING VISIBILITY DOWN TO 1 MI
OR LESS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL FIRST DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST
(GLS/LBX) BETWEEN 02-04Z, THEN SPREAD TO THE I-10 CORRIDOR BY
05-08Z, THEN ALL THE WAY TO CLL BY 07-09Z. IMPROVEMENTS WILL
OCCUR DURING THE MORNING WITH CIGS SCATTERING OUR BY 16-18Z
INLAND, BUT POSSIBLY LINGERING AT GLS THROUGH 21Z. IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT,
INCREASING IN SPEED TO AROUND 6-9KT DURING THE AFTERNOON ON
WEDNESDAY, THEN DROPPING BELOW 6KT AGAIN BY SUNSET.
FOWLER
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
PATCHY FOG WILL LINGER THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY NEAR THE BAY
ENTRANCES AND NEARSHORE WATERS, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS EAST OF
FREEPORT. ANY IMPROVEMENTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY END
BY THE EVENING HOURS WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG RETURNING TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SEA FOG WILL LIKELY RETURN NIGHTLY THROUGH
AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING WITH SOME PATCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS AND LOW SEAS PREVAIL THROUGH
SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS STRONG
NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT.
03
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 65 79 63 79 / 0 0 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 66 79 64 79 / 0 10 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 64 74 63 75 / 10 10 10 0
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ355.
DISCUSSION...03
AVIATION...FOWLER
MARINE...03
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