650
FXUS64 KHGX 241855
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1255 PM CST WED DEC 24 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY WARM AND HUMIDITY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
SOME DAYS COULD REACH RECORD WARMTH.
- THROUGH THE WEEKEND, EXPECT DAILY VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS DUE TO
FOG AND SEA FOG, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE BAYS AND COASTAL AREAS.
THE MAIN THREAT FOR FOG WILL BE DURING THE NIGHTTIME AND MORNING
HOURS. AFTERNOON FOG A POSSIBILITY NEAR THE COAST.
- STRONG COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING TO BRING
MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS MONDAY-TUESDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY WARMING
BACK UP TOWARDS AVERAGE HEADING INTO NEW YEAR'S EVE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CST WED DEC 24 2025
THE PATTERN OVER TEXAS IS BEING DRIVEN BY ONE DOMINANT AND ONE
SECONDARY FEATURE. THE DOMINATE FEATURE IS A LARGE MID/UPPER RIDGE
THAT LOOMS LARGE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. THE
RIDGE IS A MAJOR CONTRIBUTER TO THE HOLIDAY HEAT EFFECTING MUCH OF
CONUS WEST OF THE ROCKIES. THIS RIDGE COUPLED WITH ONSHORE FLOW
IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL KEEP THINGS QUITE WARM AND HUMID THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND. BUT FOR THOSE WHO KNOW A THING OR TWO ABOUT THE
WEATHER, YOU'D THINK THAT THE RIDGE WOULD EQUATE TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. BUT INSTEAD, OUR AFTERNOON SKIES FEATURE PLENTIFUL LOW TO
MID LEVEL CUMULUS. WE ALSO HAVE VERY RESILIENT SEA FOG OVER THE
GULF, WHICH HAS STRUGGLE TO BREAK DURING THE AFTERNOON. THESE
CLOUDS AND RESILIENT SEA FOG ARE A FUNCTION OF OUR SECONDARY
FEATURE, THE MID-LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO. THE LOW IS
SUPPLYING DEEP, MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT, RESULTING IN A RATHER
MOIST PROFILE CONSIDERING THE PROXIMITY OF THE MID/UPPER HIGH.
THEREFORE, THERE HASN'T BEEN ENOUGH DRY AIR ALOFT TO COMPLETELY
MIX OUT THE FOG OFFSHORE. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. EXPECT
IT TO FEEL A FEW DEGREES WARMER THANKS TO THAT HUMIDITY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE 60S.
IF THE RECENT WARMTH AND HUMIDITY TAKES YOU OUT OF THE HOLIDAY
FANTASY, THEN FEAR NOT! FOR A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON
SUNDAY. GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY IN THE FRONT'S WAKE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THE ~1040MB HIGH BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD BUILD
SOUTHWARD, ADVECTING COLD AIR SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO
TEXAS. MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO FEATURE AFTERNOON HIGHS
IN THE 50S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S. WE EVEN HAVE UPPER 20S
IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. AS THE FORECAST STANDS NOW, AREAS
OUTSIDE HOUSTON'S URBAN HEAT ISLAND AND AWAY FROM THE COAST COULD
EASILY EXPERIENCE A LIGHT FREEZE FOR ONE OR TWO NIGHTS NEXT WEEK.
COULD NOT RULE OUT FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE CITY EITHER. BUT
FOR NOW, WE ARE GOING WITH MONDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S IN THE CITY OF HOUSTON.
SELF
AVIATION
(12Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 541 AM CST WED DEC 24 2025
A MIX OF LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEAST TX DUE
TO LOW CLOUD DECKS AND AREAS OF PATCHY TO DENSE FOG. CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 14-15Z AS FOG BURNS OFF
AND CIGS GRADUALLY RISE. CONDITIONS MAY BE SLOW TO RECOVER AT GLS
AND LBX DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF SEA FOG CONTINUING OVER THE BAYS
AND NEARSHORE WATERS. CLOUDS COULD SCATTER OUT FOR SEVERAL
LOCATIONS IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER, CLOUD
DECKS WILL RETURN AND LOWER ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING.
PATCHY TO DENSE FOG WILL ALSO REDUCE VIS AGAIN FOR SEVERAL
LOCATIONS, IN PARTICULAR FOR SITES SOUTH OF IAH. SE-SSE WINDS
WILL BE 5-10 KTS TODAY AND RELAX BACK DOWN TO 5 KTS OR LESS
TONIGHT.
COTTO
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CST WED DEC 24 2025
SEA FOG IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AN ISSUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THOUGH
THE FOG HAS LIFTED IN MANY AREAS AS OF NOON TODAY, A FOG BANK
SOUTH OF THE SABINE IS DRIFTING WESTWARD AND MAY REDUCE VISIBILITY
IN THE VICINITY OF BOLIVAR, GALVESTON, GALVESTON BAY, AND THE
ADJACENT GULF WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN IF THIS FOG BANK
DISSIPATES, THE CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD DENSE SEA FOG WILL INCREASE
AGAIN BY THIS EVENING. SEA FOG DURING THE EVENING, OVERNIGHT, AND
MORNING HOURS WILL REMAIN LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT FOG COULD BECOME SOMEWHAT LESS SEVERE AND LESS WIDESPREAD
THIS WEEKEND IF OCEAN TEMPERATURES MANAGE TO SUFFICIENTLY WARM.
THE NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE A COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH OFFSHORE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY MORNING. STRONG
GUSTY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ARE EXPECTED IN THE FRONT'S WAKE.
WINDS SHOULD EASILY REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. GALE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY, ESPECIALLY OVER THE OPEN GULF.
BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT GALE CONDITIONS IN THE BAYS AS WELL.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
THE RECORD HIGH OF 81 DEGREES WAS TIED FOR THE CITY OF HOUSTON
EARLIER TODAY. WITH TEMPERATURES NOT LIKELY TO CHANGE
SIGNIFICANTLY UNTIL SUNDAY'S FRONT, RECORDS MAY POTENTIALLY BE
TIED OR BROKEN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AT THE VERY LEAST, WE
WILL BE MUCH CLOSER TO THOSE RECORDS THAN WE WILL BE TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES.
AS A QUICK SUMMARY, RECORD HIGHS AT THE TWO HOUSTON CLIMATE SITES
(IAH, HOBBY) RANGE FROM 81-84 OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS, WHILE
RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPS RANGE FROM 68 TO 75 DEGREES. COLLEGE
STATIONS RECORDS RANGE FROM 81 TO 86 FOR HIGHS AND 65 TO 73 FOR
HIGH MINS. GALVESTON'S RECORD HIGHS RANGE FROM 78 TO 80 FOR MAX
TEMPS, AND 67 TO 71 DEGREES FOR RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPS.
LUCHS/FOWLER
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 64 82 61 82 / 0 0 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 64 82 62 82 / 0 0 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 67 75 67 75 / 0 0 10 0
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR GMZ355.
DISCUSSION...SELF
AVIATION...COTTO
MARINE...SELF
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