927
FXUS64 KHGX 251130
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
530 AM CST THU DEC 25 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF RECORDS, AND A FEW
ISOLATED RECORDS MAY BE TIED OR BROKEN.
- THROUGH THE WEEKEND, EXPECT NIGHTLY VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS DUE TO
FOG AND SEA FOG, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE BAYS AND COASTAL AREAS.
THE MAIN THREAT FOR FOG WILL BE DURING THE NIGHTTIME AND MORNING
HOURS. AFTERNOON FOG SHOULD GENERALLY RETREAT OFFSHORE, BUT WILL
QUICKLY RETURN TO THE COAST TOWARDS SUNSET.
- STRONG COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING TO BRING
MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS MONDAY-TUESDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY WARMING
BACK UP TOWARDS AVERAGE HEADING INTO NEW YEAR'S EVE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CST WED DEC 24 2025
THEN ONE FOGGY CHRISTMAS EVE,
SANTA CAME TO SAY (HO HO HO)
'RUDOLPH WITH YOUR NOSE SO BRIGHT,
WON'T YOU GUIDE MY SLEIGH TONIGHT?'
AND YES...I REALLY DID STRONGLY CONSIDER JUST PASTING THE LYRICS
TO RUDOLPH IN HERE AND CALLING IT A DISCUSSION. IT WOULD BE A
SURPRISINGLY NOT TOO TERRIBLE SUMMARY!
THE PRIMARY FOCUS OF THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON THE
NEAR-RECORD HEAT, HIGH HUMIDITY, AND NIGHTLY EPISODES OF DENSE FOG
IN THE AREA, WITH AN EXTRA EMPHASIS ON THE FOG NEAR THE COAST AND
OVER THE WATERS. THIS IS...NOT REALLY GOING TO CHANGE VERY MUCH IN
THE SHORT TERM, AND WILL LIKELY CARRY ON THROUGH MOST OF THE
WEEKEND WITH LITTLE CHANGE.
NOW, WE ARE STILL LOOKING FOR THE RIDGING IN PLACE TO BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN MODESTLY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT FRONT, BUT WE ARE STILL
LOOKING AT RIDGING SO STRONGLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICALLY NORMAL THIS
TIME OF YEAR THAT IT'S SIMPLY NOT GOING TO CHANGE THE ENVIRONMENT
VERY MUCH. THERE IS MAYBE A LITTLE MORE HOPE FOR FOG (BIG EMPHASIS
ON LITTLE). BUT WITH WINDS VEERING MORE TO SOUTHWESTERLY THIS
WEEKEND BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES, WE WILL BE GETTING WINDS THAT
AREN'T AS FAVORABLE FOR BIG INTRUSIONS OF SEA FOG. AND...THAT FLOW
DOES GENERALLY TEND TO BE NOT QUITE AS SATURATED, WHICH MODEL
FIELDS KINDA...SORTA...IMPLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT? IT'S NOT A
REAL CLEAR SIGNAL, SO IT'S PROBABLY MORE LIKELY THAT THIS MAY JUST
MODESTLY IMPROVE THE FOG SITUATION RATHER THAN CLEAR THINGS
OUTRIGHT, BUT AFTER THIS MANY DAYS OF THE FOG MACHINE, I'LL TAKE
WHAT I CAN GET AT THIS POINT.
THE PRICE FOR THIS? WELL, IF WE DO GET SOME MODESTLY DRIER AIR
MOVING IN JUST ABOVE THE DECK FOR THE WEEKEND, THAT WILL MIX DOWN
IN THE AFTERNOON AND HELP TEMPS WARM UP A BIT MORE EFFICIENTLY IN
THE AFTERNOON. AGAIN, GIVEN THE LACK OF BROAD CHANGE IN THE
ENVIRONMENT, THE IMPACT WILL BE MODEST, BUT WE COULD SEE HIGHS
AROUND OR JUST ABOVE 80 DEGREES GET A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, AND MIGHT BE ENOUGH TO PICK OFF ANOTHER
RECORD OR TWO.
ULTIMATELY, NOTHING WILL CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY, AND THE HOT TEMPS
AND FOG THREAT WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE PICTURE UNTIL A WHOLE NEW
AIRMASS COMES INTO THE REGION BEHIND A COLD FRONT. AND,
FORTUNATELY, THAT'S JUST WHAT WE'RE LOOKING AT HAPPENING LATE
SUNDAY! AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, WE CAN LOOK FOR SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS EVEN A STRAY STORM ALONG THE FRONT, BUT THE
BIG STORY HERE IS THE TEMPERATURE CHANGE. ALL SIGNS POINT TO A
BIG TEMPERATURE SHIFT WITH THIS FRONT, AND HIGHS FROM SUNDAY
(ASSUMING THE FRONT ARRIVES LATE ENOUGH TO NOT MESS WITH THOSE
HIGHS) TO MONDAY COULD BE IN THE BALLPARK OF 30 DEGREES! AND THAT
SOUNDS REALLY COLD, UNTIL YOU REMEMBER WHERE WE'RE COMING FROM.
BUT WITH OUR HEAT PERCH SO HIGH TO BEGIN WITH, THE RESULTANT PLACE
WE LAND AT IS SOMETHING SEASONABLY CHILLY, 5ISH DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE. BUT WHATEVER SCOURS OUT THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY AND GIVES
THIS NATIVE WISCONSINITE EVEN A SEASONABLE SE TEXAS STRETCH TO END
THE YEAR, I WILL TAKE IT!
OF COURSE, IT'S NOT JUST ABOUT MAGNITUDE, BUT ALSO DURATION. MID-
LEVEL RIDGING, BUT WELL WEAKER THAN WHAT WE JUST EXPERIENCED,
SHOULD BUILD IN FOR THE MID-WEEK. AS A RESULT, MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY SHOULD BE THE CHILLIEST PART OF THE WEEK FOR US, WITH A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND KEEPING THINGS RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL
AVERAGES TO CLOSE OUT 2025 AND OPEN UP 2026.
AVIATION
(12Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 530 AM CST THU DEC 25 2025
A MIXED BAG OF LIFR TO MVFR AROUND THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH LOWER VISIBILITIES/CEILINGS CLOSER TO THE COAST. WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, VISIBILITIES AND
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A GRADUAL DOWNWARD TREND
THROUGH 15Z BEFORE BEGINNING TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN. VISIBILITIES
WILL IMPROVE BEFORE CEILINGS WITH MVFR CEILINGS LINGERING THROUGH
18Z EVERYWHERE EXCEPT GLS. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF MVFR TO
VFR CONDITIONS AT GLS IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER,
BASED ON THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS, THE SEA FOG ROLLS BACK IN
GENERALLY BY 22Z. ANOTHER ROUND OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING ONCE AGAIN. ELEVATED WINDS
FURTHER NORTH MAY MAKE TONIGHT'S EVENT MORE OF A LOW CEILING EVENT
RATHER THAN FOG, BUT DENSE FOG IS STILL EXPECTED TO POST AN ISSUE
FOR TERMINALS NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-10.
AS FAR AS WINDS GO, LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 5-10 KT WITH WINDS
REMAINING A BIT ELEVATED GOING INTO TONIGHT FOR NORTHERN AREAS.
BATISTE
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CST WED DEC 24 2025
FOG HAS ROARED BACK ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND INTO THE BAYS
THIS EVENING, WITH DENSE SPOTS SEEN ON NUMEROUS WEBCAMS AND
OBSERVATIONS AROUND THE COAST. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP FOG
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
WIDESPREAD FOG OCCURRING AFTER SUNSET, THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS, AND INTO THE MORNING. WITH WINDS SHIFTING A LITTLE MORE
TOWARDS SOUTHWESTERLY THIS WEEKEND, THE POORER FETCH MAY HELP
PARTIALLY DISRUPT THE FOG MACHINE...BUT WITH DEWPOINTS NOT
EXPECTED TO DECREASE MUCH ALONG WITH THE WIND SHIFT, THIS IS
PROBABLY MORE IN TERMS OF GETTING SOME BETTER IMPROVEMENT IN THE
AFTERNOON, AND WILL NOT BE ABLE TO CLEAR FOG OUT ON ITS OWN. NO,
THE FOG THREAT WILL NOT BE ENDED ENTIRELY UNTIL A STRONG COLD
FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, BRINGING
STRONG WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS IN ITS WAKE. GALES MAY OCCUR ON THE
GULF WATERS, AND WILL BECOME THE NEXT WEATHER FOCUS AFTER THIS FOG
EVENT COMES TO A CLOSE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 80 64 81 66 / 0 0 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 81 65 81 66 / 0 0 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 73 66 73 65 / 0 0 0 0
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TXZ200-
210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR GMZ330-335-350-355.
DISCUSSION...LUCHS
AVIATION...BATISTE
MARINE...LUCHS
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