441
FXUS64 KHGX 262306
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
506 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT/MORNING FOG
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WILL
BRING MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK, FOLLOWED BY A SLOW
WARMUP DEEPER INTO THE WEEK.
- GALE CONDITIONS LOOK INCREASINGLY LIKELY AFTER THE FRONT IN THE
GULF WATERS AND POTENTIALLY THE BAYS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
WELCOME TO ANOTHER DAY OF WARM, HUMID, HOLIDAY SOUP. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH SUNDAY AND MAY
FLIRT WITH RECORDS. THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE
FAVORABLE FOR SOME OVERNIGHT AND MORNING FOG. BUT THE FOG MAY NOT
BE AS WIDESPREAD AS RECENT DAYS. IN ADDITION, WE EXPECT THE THREAT
OF SEA FOG TO CONTINUE AT THE COAST, BUT WITH LONGER BREAKS IN THE
FOG DURING THE DAY. BUT THE WARMTH'S DAYS ARE NUMBERED DUE TO A
LOOMING PATTERN CHANGE THAT PROMISES MUCH COLDER WEATHER.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING BRINGING GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AND FALLING
TEMPERATURES. THE FRONT ALSO EXPECTED TO FEATURE SOME RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE CWA. ON SUNDAY, MANY LOCATIONS
COULD BE NEAR THE 80 DEGREE MARK. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON, MANY
LOCATIONS COULD BE STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE 40S DEPENDING ON
THE STRENGTH OF CAA. MONDAY OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE A LITTLE TRICKY DUE
TO THE PROSPECT OF CONTINUED CLOUD COVER AND WEAKENING CAA. LESS
CLOUDS AND OR MORE CAA WOULD EQUATE TO HIGHER CHANCE OF MOST AREAS
IN THE CWA EXPERIENCING A LIGHT FREEZE. MORE CLOUDS AND LESS CAA
WOULD EQUATE TO SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS. TUESDAY PROMISES ANOTHER
CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE LOW 50S. AND WITH
EXPECTED HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEARING SKIES TUESDAY NIGHT, MANY
LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE COAST AND OUTSIDE THE URBAN HEAT ISLAND
COULD FIND THEMSELVES DEALING WITH A LIGHT FREEZE ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
THE EARLY OUTLOOK FOR THE NEW YEAR'S HOLIDAY FEATURES A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND. AFTER A TOASTY CHRISTMAS AND AN ARCTIC GLANCING
BLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK, IT APPEARS WE MAY MANAGE A RATHER AVERAGE
NEW YEAR'S. HIGHS ON NEW YEAR'S ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 60,
RISING TO THE MID/UPPER 60S ON NEW YEAR'S DAY. THE EARLY OUTLOOK
FOR THE NEW YEAR'S EVE FESTIVITIES ENTAILS EVENING TEMPERATURES
FALLING THROUGH THE 50S AND INTO THE 40S (TAD WARMER AT THE COAST)
UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. BUT I'D RECOMMEND CHECKING THE
FORECAST UPDATES SINCE ANY FORECAST 6-7 DAYS OUT WILL HAVE SOME
ENHANCED UNCERTAINTY.
SELF
AVIATION
(00Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 458 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY WAS ABLE TO BRING SOME DRIER AIR TO THE
REGION LEADING TO WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS, EVEN AT GLS. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH MID AND UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. BY 3Z, MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO CREEP IN FROM THE COAST WITH CIGS BETWEEN
700-1500FT. TERMINAL SOUTH OF I-10 WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF
LIFR CIGS DOWN TO 300FT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, BUT COULD SEE A WINDOW
OF THESE CONDITIONS AROUND 12Z ALL THE WAY UP TO IAH. PATCHY FOG
IS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT, BUT THE DENSE FOG SHOULD REMAIN
CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST (IMPACTING GLS). VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN TO THE AREA DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING AS THE LOW
CLOUDS SCATTER OUT, BUT THE LOW CLOUDS WILL RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT.
SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD
BETWEEN 5-10KT OVERNIGHT, AND THEN 6-12KT DURING THE DAY.
FOWLER
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR AREAS SEA FOG DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST TRAJECTORY OF THE WIND ALONG WITH WARMING WATER
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESULT IN LONGER BREAKS IN THE FOG,
PARTICULARLY DURING THE DAY. BUT AS ALWAYS, THERE ARE SOME
UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING FOG TIMING.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL EXPECTED TO PUSH OFFSHORE LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL BRING STRONG WINDS AND
BUILDING SEAS ON ITS WAKE. GALES ARE LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT IN
THE GULF ON MONDAY. GUSTS IN THE GULF COULD APPROACH 45 KNOTS. IN
THE BAYS, GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE. COULD NOT RULE OUT 40
KNOT GUSTS IN THE LOWER BAYS ON MONDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS, THOUGH THE GULF WATERS COULD
APPROACH 35 KNOTS SUSTAINED. BAY WATERS WILL BECOME VERY ROUGH
WHILE GULF SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO TOP 10-12 FEET. CONDITIONS
GRADUALLY IMPROVE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER, SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS COULD PREVAIL WELL INTO TUESDAY. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT BY WEDNESDAY AND VEER ONSHORE BY
THURSDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 66 82 65 81 / 0 0 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 69 82 66 82 / 0 0 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 66 74 66 75 / 0 0 0 10
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SELF
AVIATION...FOWLER
MARINE...SELF
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