725
FXUS64 KHGX 051108
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
508 AM CST MON JAN 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ABNORMALLY LOW WATER LEVELS DURING LOW TIDE IN GALVESTON BAY
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH LEVELS MODERATING CLOSER
TO NORMAL BY MID-WEEK.
- PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE NIGHTLY THROUGH MIDWEEK.
- WARMING WEATHER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO
THE 80S BY MIDWEEK. COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY USHERS IN COOLER
WEATHER THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1035 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
FALL-LIKE WEATHER RETURNS THROUGH THURSDAY THANKS TO SOUTHERLY
FLOW AT THE SURFACE BRINGING WARM, MOIST AIR IN FROM THE GULF AND
WEAK RIDGING BUILDING ALOFT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, THEN INCREASE TO LOW
TO MID 80S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, AND THEN POTENTIALLY A COULD
DEGREES COOLER (BUT STILL IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S) ON THURSDAY
THANKS TO INCREASED CLOUDY COVER. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SIMILARLY UNSEASONABLY WARM WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE OF
NIGHTLY PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING THROUGH MIDWEEK AS WELL.
ONE THING TO BE ON THE LOOK OUT FOR IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE
AN APPROACHING BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY THAT WILL BE
THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN AFTERNOON RH VALUES IN THE 50S VS VALUES
IN THE 30S. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT THIS BOUNDARY STALLS
NORTH OF OUR AREA KEEPING OUR ENTIRE REGION HUMID, BUT IT COULD
WOBBLE A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PINEY WOODS
AND BRAZOS VALLEY REGION BRINGING THOSE LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES
THERE. HOWEVER, EVEN IF IT DOES, THIS BOUNDARY QUICKLY RETREATS
BACK NORTH BY WEDNESDAY.
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH SE TEXAS ON FRIDAY. INCREASING PVA AND MOISTURE WILL LEAD
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ON THURSDAY, AND THEN AN INCREASE
IN COVERAGE ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT. AT THIS
POINT ITS LOOKING LIKE THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA (AND INTO
LOUISIANA) WILL HAVE HIGHER COVERAGE AND BETTER CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE FRONT TAPS INTO THE GULF MOISTURE. A RETURN
TO COOLER (NEAR NORMAL) TEMPERATURES IS THEN EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT'S PASSAGE.
FOWLER
AVIATION
(12Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 503 AM CST MON JAN 5 2026
WIDESPREAD MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR/LIFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT
MID-MORNING BEFORE IMPROVING. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTH LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON, BECOMING SUSTAINED
10-13 KNOTS WITH AN OCCASIONALLY HIGHER GUST. VFR EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING BEFORE VIS/CIGS DROP
AGAIN OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ONCE AGAIN, CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH IN CONDITIONS DROPPING TO AT LEAST MVFR TERRITORY TONIGHT.
BUT THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF IFR/LIFR AS WELL, ESPECIALLY AFTER
0800 UTC.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1035 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE THE CHANCE OF
FOG DEVELOPING NIGHTLY. CHANCES TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WILL
BE HIGHEST IN THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE BAYS WHERE FOG MAY SPILL
OVER FROM THE LAND. MORE TRADITIONAL SEA FOG BECOMES MORE LIKELY
IN THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
INCREASING WINDS AND SSTS WILL LEAD TO LOWER CHANCES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS AROUND 10KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR 20KT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS ON FRIDAY AND USHER IN STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS LATE FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT.
A LOW WATER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT MONDAY IN GALVESTON BAY AS
WATER-LEVELS DROP DOWN TO NEAR -0.8 TO -1.0FT MLLW DURING LOW
TIDE.
FOWLER
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 76 63 82 60 / 0 0 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 76 63 83 63 / 0 0 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 69 64 73 64 / 0 0 0 0
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR GMZ335.
DISCUSSION...FOWLER
AVIATION...SELF
MARINE...FOWLER
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