331
FXUS64 KHGX 052349
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
549 PM CST MON JAN 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ABNORMALLY LOW WATER LEVELS DURING LOW TIDE IN GALVESTON BAY
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LEVELS MODERATING CLOSER TO
NORMAL BY MID-WEEK.
- PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE NIGHTLY THROUGH MIDWEEK.
- WARMING WEATHER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH TEMPERATURES BACK
INTO THE 80S BY TUESDAY. COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY USHERS IN COOLER
WEATHER FOR THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CST MON JAN 5 2026
WE STARTED OUT THE WORK WEEK WITH COOLER MORNING TEMPERATURES, BUT
THINGS ARE GOING TO CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WE CONTINUE ON
A WARMING TREND. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW
70S TO LOW 80S WITH THE COOLER END OF THOSE TEMPERATURES OCCURING TO
THE EAST OF I-45. WITH ONSHORE WINDS AT THE SURFACE, LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE. ON YOUR MORNING COMMUTE DRIVE,
SOME OF YOU MAY HAVE RAN INTO PATCHY TO DENSE FOG...AND THAT'S
LIKELY TO BE A CONSISTENT THEME THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.
THE MAIN INHIBITOR FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING THOUGH WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
OVERNIGHT. SO, THE HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR FOG TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY
BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10 ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. SINCE WE'RE
TALKING ABOUT FOG, SEA FOG IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE PREVALENT THROUGH
MIDWEEK BEGINNING TONIGHT AROUND GALVESTON BAY AND THE ADJACENT GULF
WATERS. TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, ELEVATED SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS MAY INHIBIT SEA FOG DEVELOPMENT. DENSE FOG IS TYPICALLY MOST
PREVALENT BETWEEN 6AM-9AM, SO BE SURE TO TAKE THE PROPER PRECAUTIONS
ON YOUR MORNING COMMUTES IF YOU ENCOUNTER IT.
OTHER THAN THE FOG, THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK WILL ALSO
FEATURE NEAR RECORD TO RECORD BREAKING WARMTH AS HIGH TEMPERATURES
REACH WELL INTO THE 80S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. FOR TUESDAY,
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE PREVALENT AT THE SURFACE WITH WESTERLY
WINDS ALOFT LEADING TO 850MB TEMPERATURES PEAKING ABOVE THE 90TH
PERCENTILE (NAEFS/GEFS). ADDITIONALLY ON TUESDAY, THERE WILL BE A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT SLIDES IN OVER PORTIONS OF THE BRAZOS VALLEY
AND THE PINEY WOODS IN THE AFTERNOON BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF
DRIER AIR. HOWEVER, THIS WON'T CAUSE COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE
DAYTIME...BUT IT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
(DISCUSSED IN THE NEXT PARAGRAPH). ON WEDNESDAY, SURFACE WINDS ARE
MORE SOUTHERLY, BUT 850MB TEMPERATURES PEAK NEAR THE 99TH
PERCENTILE. AS A RESULT, HIGH TEMPERATURES ON BOTH OF THESE DAYS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. THE MID 80S PORTION OF THAT IS
MOST LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY FOR AREAS WEST OF I-45.
LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK WILL BE ON A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO
THE DRIER AIR IN PLACE FROM A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT STALLS OUT OVER
THE BRAZOS VALLEY/PINEY WOODS. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TONIGHT TO BE IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S AND THE SAME THROUGH MIDWEEK. EXPECT LOWS IN THE
50S GENERALLY IN THE BRAZOS VALLEY/PINEY WOODS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT,
THEN THEY'LL BOUNCE BACK INTO THE 60S FOR LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL COOL DOWN A TAD BIT INTO THE UPPER 70S
TO LOW 80S AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE A TAD BIT "COOLER".
SPEAKING OF THAT, OUR NEXT COLD FRONT IS STILL PENCILED IN FOR THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK ON FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ACCOMPANY
THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH, BUT OUR RAIN CHANCES RETURN ON
THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE STATE. THOSE
RAIN CHANCES ARE GENERALLY HIGHER (~20%) ALONG AND EAST OF I-45.
FRIDAY WILL DEFINITELY BE THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS, BUT
THE TIMING OF THAT DEPENDS ON THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE TIMING ALSO
HAS AN IMPACT ON FRIDAY'S TEMPERATURES AS EARLIER FROPA WOULD LEAD
TO COOLER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND VICE VERSA. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS
FOR NOW IS A MORNING FROPA, BUT WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.
THERE IS CONSENSUS ON THIS WEEKEND BEING COOL AND PLEASANT WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 60S AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
30S/40S. THIS MEANS THAT TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE
CHILLY IN CASE YOU HAVE ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES PLANNED. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT FREEZE OVER THE WEEKEND AS WELL, SO COOLER
WEATHER IS ON THE HORIZON...WE JUST HAVE TO GET THROUGH SOME RECORD
WARMTH FIRST!
BATISTE/SANTIAGO
AVIATION
(00Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 535 PM CST MON JAN 5 2026
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD EASE OFF THIS EVENING,
LATER SHIFTING SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE SOME SEA FOG
DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST AS A RESULT, THOUGH THIS SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW PATTERN IS LESS FAVORABLE FOR SEA FOG. STILL, CIGS AND FOG
ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH FLS REACHING MVFR TO IFR
AT MOST LOCATIONS WITH A FEW OF THE MORE FOG/CIG PRONE AREAS
REACHING IFR TO POSSIBLY LIFR DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
TUESDAY. EXPECT FOG/CIGS TO CLEAR UP AFTER SUNRISE ON TUESDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS BY THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
ALSO PUSH TOWARDS SE TEXAS, BUT IT WILL SLOW AND STALL, ONLY
REACHING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE BRAZOS VALLEY. STILL, SITES NEAR
KCLL COULD SEE A BRIEF WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHIFT DURING
THE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE FRONT'S REMNANTS LIFT NORTH.
03
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CST MON JAN 5 2026
LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS AND LOW SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE DAY
WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO SOUTHWESTERLY TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER,
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEA FOG DEVELOPMENT BEGINS OVERNIGHT AS WELL
ESPECIALLY AROUND GALVESTON BAY AND THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS. SEA
FOG IS MORE LIKELY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WARMER TEMPERATURES
(LEADING TO WARMER WATER TEMPERATURES) AND INCREASING WINDS WILL
LIKELY INHIBIT SEA FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDWEEK. THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR CAUTION FLAGS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY DUE TO THE
INCREASED WINDS.
THE NEXT PERIOD OF INCREASED WINDS WILL BE IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT THAT PUSHES OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT
PUSHES THROUGH. A PERIOD OF THE MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS AND
ELEVATED SEAS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE WEEKEND. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS TIMEFRAME.
ADDITIONALLY, A LOW WATER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR GALVESTON BAY.
BATISTE/SANTIAGO
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 63 82 57 83 / 0 0 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 64 83 63 84 / 0 0 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 63 73 63 73 / 0 0 0 0
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR GMZ335.
DISCUSSION...BATISTE
AVIATION...03
MARINE...BATISTE
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