995
FXUS64 KHGX 072331
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
531 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY. MANY LOCATIONS WILL
FLIRT WITH SOME RECORD HIGHS.
- PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG TONIGHT, BUT PROBABLY LESS COVERAGE AND NOT
AS DENSE AS THE PREVIOUS FEW NIGHTS.
- SOME RAIN CHANCES RE-ENTER THE FORECAST THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY
HIGHER CHANCES FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT FRIDAY
NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 106 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
UPPER LOW SITUATED NEAR BAJA WILL FILL AND ADVANCE ENE TONIGHT AND
ACROSS THE PLAINS THURSDAY. IN ADVANCE, WE'LL SEE A TIGHTENING
LLVL PRESSURE GRADIENT LEADING TO SOME INCREASING SOUTHERLY WIND
SPEEDS. AFTER SOME POTENTIAL REDEVELOPMENT OF SEA FOG THIS
EVENING, THESE STRENGTHENING WINDS WILL PROBABLY LIMIT THE OVERALL
COVERAGE OF INLAND FOG OVERNIGHT COMPARED TO WHAT WE'VE SEEN THE
PAST FEW NIGHTS. THESE SAME WINDS WILL ALSO KEEP READINGS FROM
FALLING MUCH...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS ONLY FALLING INTO THE 67-70F
RANGE FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
THOUGH PW'S WILL BE TRENDING UPWARD AND CLOSER TO 1.5" THURS, AND
SOME HEALTHY SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT, FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A
SUBSTANTIAL WARM NOSE SITUATED BETWEEN H85-H7 WHICH LOOKS LIKE
IT'LL BE PRETTY DIFFICULT TO BE OVERCOME. ASSUMING THIS IS THE
CASE, WOULD ANTICIPATE THAT PRECIP WOULD MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF
ISOLATED-SCATTERED LIGHT WAA STREAMER-TYPE SHRA VERSUS TSTMS. WITH
A WARM START TO THE DAY, LOOK FOR HIGHS TO FLIRT WITH RECORDS
AGAIN. BREEZY SOUTH WINDS 10-20G25MPH CAN BE EXPECTED.
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED PREFRONTAL TROF APPROACHES ON
FRIDAY. EVEN HIGHER PW'S (~1.7) WILL POOL IN ADVANCE. THOUGH SHEAR
WON'T BE AS IMPRESSIVE AS THURSDAY, OVERALL INSTABILITY SHOULD BE
HIGHER WITH LESS CAPPING AND A SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE UPPER JET POSITION.
THIS SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
ACROSS THE AREA...GENERALLY NORTH OF I-10 DURING THE MORNING &
AFTERNOON AND FURTHER SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CANNOT
RULE AN ISOLATED STRONG-SEVERE CELL OR TWO WITH WINDS/HAIL THE
PRIMARY THREAT.
PREFRONTAL TROF PUSHES OFF THE COAST FRIDAY EVENING, MOSTLY
ENDING RAIN CHANCES. COLD FRONT ITSELF SHOULD FOLLOW SHORTLY
THEREAFTER LEADING TO DRIER AND MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST LATE MONDAY AND SOME COASTAL
TROFFINESS LOOKS TO SET UP HEADING INTO TUE-WED. 47
AVIATION
(00Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 531 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
FORECAST IS FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN BROAD STROKES, WITH SOME
DEGRADATION (TO ROUGHLY MVFR) BUT STRONGER SOUTH WINDS OVERNIGHT
SHOULD PREVENT MORE SIGNIFICANT DISRUPTIONS, WITH EXCEPTION OF
EVENING SEA FOG INFLUENCE AT GLS, THOUGH EVEN THAT LOOKS TO BE
FAIRLY LIMITED IN TIME. GETTING MORE SPECIFIC THAN THESE BROAD
STROKES, LOOKS TO BE MORE COMPLICATED, AND MAY REQUIRE ATTENTIVE
MONITORING/AMENDMENTS. TOMORROW, EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO GET
STRONGER/GUSTIER, AND MAY SEE A SMALL SMATTERING OF SHOWERS, WITH
PROB30S FROM IAH UP TO UTS WHERE A QUICK RINSE SEEMS MOST
PROBABLE.
ONE OTHER THING TO WATCH FOR WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR LLWS FROM IAH
NORTHWARD, PARTICULARLY LATE TONIGHT. EXPECTATION IS THAT WE WILL
BE NEAR THE THRESHOLD FOR A TAF MENTION, BUT THE STRONGER SURFACE
WINDS LOOK TO KEEP US JUST SHY. STILL, AVIATORS SHOULD REMAIN
AWARE OF SOME AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR, ALONG WITH SOME
PROBABILITY OF MORE SIGNIFICANT SHEAR.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 106 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
SOME LINGERING PATCHES OF DENSE FOG MAY PERSIST INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS IN PARTS OF GALVESTON BAY AND ADJACENT GULF
WATERS. THIS FOG WILL PROBABLY EXPAND IN COVERAGE DURING THE EARLY
AND MID EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER, AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES, GUIDANCE
INDICATES STRONGER WINDS DEVELOPING WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR
IMPROVED VISIBILITY OVERNIGHT, THOUGH THERE IS FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY. WITH INCREASING ONSHORE WINDS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY,
ANTICIPATE BUILDING SEAS AND CAUTION OR ADVISORY CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT AND WE
WILL AGAIN NEED TO MONITOR THE FOG SITUATION. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO PUSH OFF THE COAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MODERATE
TO STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS IN ITS WAKE. 47
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 67 80 65 76 / 0 30 10 60
HOUSTON (IAH) 67 81 68 81 / 0 20 10 50
GALVESTON (GLS) 66 74 66 74 / 10 10 20 30
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...47
AVIATION...LUCHS
MARINE...47
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