274
FXUS64 KHGX 081927
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
127 PM CST THU JAN 8 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND MUGGY TONIGHT. THREAT OF SEA FOG REDEVELOPMENT NEAR THE
COAST.
- NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA FRIDAY WITH
INCREASING SHOWER AND ISOLATED STORM CHANCES.
- COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO WINTER
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK..
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 127 PM CST THU JAN 8 2026
ALL SIGNS POINT TOWARD SOME MORE RECORD HIGHS BEING SET THIS
AFTERNOON. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME LATE NIGHT SEA FOG DEVELOPMENT FOR THOSE
CLOSE TO THE COAST. ELEVATED DEWPOINTS SHOULD KEEP MIN TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 60S-LOW 70S AGAIN.
PW'S WILL LINGER IN THE 1.5-1.7" RANGE FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE
NEXT WX SYSTEM TAKING SHAPE AND MOVING CLOSER TO THE AREA. THERMAL
PROFILE (CAPPING) SHOULDN'T BE AS MUCH OF A LIMITING FACTOR FOR
SHOWER/TSTM INITIATION AS IT WAS TODAY. AM ANTICIPATING SOME
INCREASING PRECIP DEVELOPMENT/COVERAGE IN THE MID-LATE MORNING
HOURS, MORESO NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR, TO GRADUALLY EXPAND
SOUTHWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS THE
PREFRONTAL TROF SLOWLY SAGS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION
(EVENTUALLY OFF THE COAST MIDNIGHT-ISH). CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
EMBEDDED STRONGER STORMS ACROSS OUR AREA, THOUGH THE BEST
INSTABILITY/SHEAR/DYNAMICS LOOK TO MOSTLY BE SITUATED FURTHER TO
OUR ENE. WE'LL BE SITUATED IN A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WX (LEVEL
1 OF 5) OR A 5-15% OVERALL SHOT OF SEEING SOME DAMAGING WINDS OR
HAIL). COLD FRONT ITSELF SHOULD BE 3-6 HOURS BEHIND THE INITIAL
WIND SHIFT AND FINALLY BRING A RETURN TO WINTER TEMPS BACK TO SE
TX FOR THE WEEKEND. NE PARTS OF THE CWA MAY EVEN SEE A LIGHT
FREEZE SUNDAY NIGHT.
A BRIEF ONSHORE FLOW RESUMES LATER MONDAY WITH JUST SOME MODEST
TEMP RISES. THOUGH THERE ARE NO POPS CURRENTLY ADVERTISED, THERE
ARE A MIX OF DETERMINISTIC MODELS THAT WANT TO BRING A WEAK,
DECAYING SHORTWAVE ACROSS TUESDAY AND PRODUCE SOME QPF AND
SOMETHING WE'LL KEEP AN EYE ON IN REGARDS TO TRENDS. OTHERWISE,
AMPLIFYING MID LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND DIGGING TROF TO OUR
EAST SHOULD MAKE FOR A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR ANOTHER FRONTAL
PASSAGE TOWARD MIDWEEK. 47
AVIATION
(12Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 527 AM CST THU JAN 8 2026
A STRONG LLJ OF 40-45KT AROUND 2000-2500FT ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 25KT MAKING IT DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. THESE GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS HAS LED TO LITTLE TO NO FOG
DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING, BUT LOW CIGS AROUND 1000-2500FT WILL
REMAIN THROUGH THE LATE MORNING BEFORE LIFTING/SCATTERING OUT. THE
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE
LOWERING. WITH THE LOSS OF THE ELEVATED WINDS, CHANCES ARE HIGHER
TONIGHT FOR AREAS OF FOG WITH PATCHY, DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP. MVFR
TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BY MIDNIGHT WITH IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY LATE TONIGHT/NEAR DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING
WITH CIGS DOWN TO 700FT OR LESS AND PATCHY, DENSE FOG.
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT CHANCES
ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. BY FRIDAY LATE FRIDAY MORNING,
THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH A ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL A COLD FRONT'S PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT.
FOWLER
MARINE
ISSUED AT 127 PM CST THU JAN 8 2026
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AND 5-8FT SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT CAUTION/ADVISORY FLAG
CONFIGURATION FOR NOW AND LET THE NEXT SHIFT EVALUATE WHETHER THEY
CAN BE RE-CONFIGURED OR DOWNGRADED THIS EVENING. SPEEDS LOOK TO
BECOME LOW ENOUGH FOR POTENTIAL SEA FOG REDEVELOPMENT LATER
TONIGHT. FOG COULD BECOME DENSE AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN
BAYS AND ADJACENT NEARSHORE GULF WATERS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND NOON
OR SO. A COLD FRONT, AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS,
IS FORECAST TO PUSH OFF THE COAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT ENDING THE
RAIN/FOG CHANCES AND USHER IN MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS
AND BUILDING SEAS IN ITS WAKE ON SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED. 47
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 64 75 47 58 / 0 70 40 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 69 81 53 61 / 10 60 70 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 68 75 56 65 / 20 40 60 30
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ330-335.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR GMZ350-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ370-375.
DISCUSSION...47
AVIATION...FOWLER
MARINE...47
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