610
FXUS64 KHGX 272339
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
539 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH PORTIONS OF THE BRAZOS VALLEY AND THE
PINEY WOODS EXPERIENCING A HARD FREEZE (≤ 24°F).
- MONITORING THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING FOR NORTHERN LOCATIONS.
- A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. HOWEVER, A
STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF HARD FREEZES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2026
AS YOU STEPPED OUTSIDE THIS MORNING, YOU LIKELY NOTICED FROST ON
ROOFS AND ON THE LAWN...AND THEN YOU SAW IT ON YOUR CAR TOO. THAT
MAY HAVE DELAYED YOU BY A FEW MINUTES, SO I'LL GO AHEAD AND LET
YOU KNOW NOW THAT WE'LL LIKELY HAVE A REPEAT OF FROST TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WELL. ALL LOCATIONS WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING
THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S
TO NEAR 50°F. I WANT TO GIVE A QUICK SHOUT-OUT TO HUNTSVILLE WHO
FINALLY REACHED ABOVE FREEZING (AT 10AM THIS MORNING) FOR THE
FIRST TIME SINCE 11PM SATURDAY NIGHT...THAT'S 59 CONSECUTIVE HOURS
OF BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES! I ACTUALLY KNOCKED DOWN TODAY'S
HIGH TEMPERATURES A BIT (ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN AREAS) AS
OVERCAST UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WORK THEIR WAY IN. THIS IS DUE TO AN
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTERACTING WITH ELEVATED UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE.
THOSE UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE THEIR WAY OUT LATE THIS EVENING MAKING
WAY FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS, WHICH MEANS
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. ANOTHER ROUND OF
WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH A HARD FREEZE (≤ 24°F) FOR PORTIONS OF THE BRAZOS
VALLEY/PINEY WOODS AND A LIGHT FREEZE (27-32 DEGREES) ELSEWHERE.
AREAS RIGHT ALONG THE COAST WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. BE SURE TO
CONTINUE BUNDLING UP IF YOU PLAN ON BEING OUTDOORS FOR AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF TIME OVERNIGHT OR IN THE MORNING HOURS (ESPECIALLY THOSE
WAITING OUTDOORS FOR BUSES). FOR THOSE IN THE BRAZOS VALLEY AND
THE PINEY WOODS, KEEP YOUR PIPES INSULATED AS THEY COULD FREEZE
AND BURST IN HARD FREEZE CONDITIONS IF NOT PROPERLY PROTECTED.
THIS GRADUAL "WARMING" TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY AS WE HAVE
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S ON WEDNESDAY AND THE
50S/60S ON THURSDAY. ANOTHER FREEZE IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT
FOR MOST OF THE AREA, BUT IT'LL BE A LIGHT FREEZE (27-32°F). HIGH
RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON PATCHY FOG LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-10 AS WELL, SO WE'LL BE MONITORING THE POTENTIAL FOR
FREEZING FOG. ON THURSDAY NIGHT, MOST OF US (EXCEPT SOME PORTIONS
OF THE BRAZOS VALLEY AND THE PINEY WOODS) GET A BREAK FROM
DROPPING BELOW FREEZING WITH LOW TEMPERATURES MAINLY RANGING FROM
THE LOW 30S TO NEAR 40°F.
THAT BREAK IS SHORT-LIVED THOUGH AS ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPS JUST AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, WHICH IS HOW MOST OF THE AREA
WILL MANAGE TO TOP OUT NEAR OR ABOVE 60 DEGREES IN THE AFTERNOON.
A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT LEADING TO A
SURGE OF MOISTURE ALONG THE COAST. AS A RESULT, RAIN CHANCES WILL
BE HIGHEST NEAR THE COAST BOTH AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ITSELF AS IT PUSHES THROUGH.
ANOTHER ROUND OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES IS LIKELY IN THE WAKE OF THIS
FRONT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HARD FREEZES (≤ 24°F). YESTERDAY, WE
TOOK A LOOK AT PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE, SO LET'S GET AN UPDATE AND
SEE WHERE WE'RE AT TODAY. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT, THE POTENTIAL FOR A HARD
FREEZE HAS SLIGHTLY DECREASED TO 50-80% FOR THE BRAZOS VALLEY/PINEY
WOODS AND 20-40% ELSEWHERE. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT, THE PROBABILITY HAS
INCREASED ACROSS THE BOARD. THERE IS NOW A 80-90+% PROBABILITY FOR A
HARD FREEZE FOR THE BRAZOS VALLEY/PINEY WOODS AND A 60-80%
PROBABILITY ELSEWHERE. SO YOU'RE TELLING ME THERE'S A CHANCE...A
PRETTY GOOD CHANCE AT THAT! DON'T PUT AWAY YOUR WINTER COATS OR THE
INSULATION FOR YOUR PIPES JUST YET!
BATISTE
AVIATION
(00Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 527 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THIS EVENING, RESULTING IN SKC
AFTER MIDNIGHT.
JM
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2026
LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BECOMING NORTHERLY ON
WEDNESDAY AND SOUTHEASTERLY ON THURSDAY. THE MAIN MARINE IMPACT
REMAINS ABNORMALLY LOW WATER LEVELS. DURING TIMES OF LOW TIDE, WATER
LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO AS MUCH AS 1 TO 1.5 FEET BELOW
MLLW. THE LOWEST OF THOSE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN THE UPPER
PARTS OF THE BAYS. ABNORMALLY LOW WATER LEVELS ARE ANTICIPATED TO
STICK AROUND THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND MAY CONTINUE INTO
THE WEEKEND BEHIND THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
RAIN CHANCES RETURN LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS A STRONG COLD
FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE. HAZARDOUS WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
WAKE OF THIS FRONT, SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY. COULDN'T
RULE OUT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE (UP TO 35 KNOTS) OVER THE OPEN GULF
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
BATISTE
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 23 48 28 57 / 0 0 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 30 56 32 63 / 0 0 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 42 55 46 62 / 0 0 0 10
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR GMZ330-335.
DISCUSSION...BATISTE
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...BATISTE
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