014
FXUS64 KHGX 042323
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
523 PM CST WED FEB 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD NIGHT AHEAD WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 30S AND
LOW 40S FOR MOST AREAS AND NEAR SUB-FREEZING LEVELS IN THE
HOUSTON AND MADISON COUNTIES.
- FOLLOWING A COOL THURSDAY, WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
RETURN FRIDAY, AND CARRY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS
RISING INTO THE 70S AND LOWS DRIFTING UPWARD INTO THE 50S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CST WED FEB 4 2026
FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE REGION AS A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER AIRMASS FILTERS IN FOLLOWING THIS MORNING'S FRONTAL PASSAGE.
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE AT THE SURFACE, ONLY EXPECT A
STREAM OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
SURFACE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS EVENING AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SLACKENS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER TX. LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES WILL PROVIDE AN IDEAL SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING.
THEREFORE, A COLD NIGHT IS ON TAP FOR THE REGION, AND IT'S SHAPING
UP TO BE THE LAST COLD NIGHT OF THE WEEK. EXPECT LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 30S AND IN THE LOW 40S IN THE HOUSTON METRO AND ALONG THE
ISLANDS. SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AROUND THE HOUSTON
AND MADISON COUNTIES.
DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON THURSDAY, BUT THIS TIME, WINDS
WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. A SURFACE RIDGE MOVES SOUTH OF THE
REGION LATE IN THE AFTERNOON, SHIFTING WINDS TO THE WEST, THEN SOUTH
BY THE EVENING HOURS. BEYOND FRIDAY, RETURN FLOW FROM THE DEPARTING
HIGH WILL BEGIN TO BRING WARM, HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW BACK TO THE
REGION. MOST DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MEANS SUGGEST HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S. A FEW MEMBERS BRING TEMPERATURES INTO
THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGY (BASED ON NAEFS/GEFS), SO IT
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF SOME LOCATIONS REACH THE 80-DEGREE MARK
SUNDAY/MONDAY.
BEYOND MONDAY, THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND DECREASING
HEIGHTS LARGELY DUE TO THE EVOLUTION OF A LOW PRESSURE NEAR BAJA
CALIFORNIA. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM
AS IT MOVES OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS AND ITS POSSIBLE
IMPACTS ACROSS SE TX. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BRING DECENT PVA WITH
HEIGHT, PAIRED WITH THE UPPER JET AND INCREASING PWATS WITH VALUES
CLOSE TO THE DAILY MAX. HOWEVER, THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES
BETWEEN MODELS REGARDING THE TRACK/STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM ONCE IT
MOVES OVER WEST TX. AS OF NOW, POPS WILL REMAIN AS THE NBM SUGGESTS
WITH 15 TO 20 PERCENT CHANCE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 516 PM CST WED FEB 4 2026
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. N-NW WINDS AT
10-15 KTS THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO AROUND 5 KTS
OVERNIGHT. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE THU MORNING, AND MAY
BECOME GUSTY AT TIMES DURING THE DAY AS A WEAK LLVL JET REMAINS
OVERHEAD. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN W-NW THU EVENING AND W-SW
THU NIGHT AS A SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOWER
TEXAS COAST INTO THE NW GULF WATERS.
COTTO
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CST WED FEB 4 2026
THE FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION IS ALREADY WELL OFFSHORE,
LEAVING ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS IN ITS WAKE. STRONG NORTH WINDS 20
TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30-35 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS TX WILL
MAINTAIN LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS THURSDAY BEFORE MODERATE SW WINDS
PREVAIL ON FRIDAY. LIGHT AND GENERALLY ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCES FOR
RAIN ARRIVE NEXT TUESDAY AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR WATER LEVELS ACROSS THE BAYS TODAY AND
THURSDAY, AS NEGATIVE WATER LEVELS (AROUND 0.5 TO 1 FT BELOW MLLW)
ARE EXPECTED DURING TIMES OF LOW TIDE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 36 66 43 77 / 0 0 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 40 64 47 75 / 0 0 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 45 59 52 67 / 0 0 0 0
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
GMZ330-335.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR GMZ350-355-370-
375.
DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...COTTO
MARINE...JM
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