542
FXUS64 KHGX 060556
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1156 PM CST THU FEB 5 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
- MARINERS NAVIGATING IN THE SHALLOWS OF UPPER GALVESTON BAY WILL
NEED TO CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH LOW TIDE FRIDAY
MORNING AS A LOW WATER ADVISORY CONTINUES. THOUGH ENOUGH
IMPROVEMENT IN THE NEGATIVE TIDES SHOULD ALLOW THAT ADVISORY TO
EXPIRE, CONDITIONS DO NOT IMPROVE MUCH, AND A NEW ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED OVER THE WEEKEND.
- TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM FRIDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK. TODAY,
LOOK FOR HIGHS ACROSS THE AREA TO RISE INTO THE 70S ALMOST AREA-
WIDE, ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER AT THE COAST. THIS WARMING TREND
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEW WEEK.
- THE ONE PAUSE TO THIS TREND LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY, AS WE SEE A DAY
OF INCREASED CLOUDINESS, ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SOME
STORMS TO PASS THROUGH. THIS WILL EXIT TUESDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER,
PUTTING US BACK ON THE WARMING TREND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1156 PM CST THU FEB 5 2026
A COOL START TO THURSDAY SET US UP FOR A SEASONABLE DAY DESPITE
PLENTY OF SUN - A BIT WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY, THOUGH NOT MUCH.
HOWEVER, OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES INTO FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD GIVE US
A GOOD 10 DEGREE HEAD START TO TEMPERATURES OVER THURSDAY, WHICH
MEANS A SIMILAR DAY SHOULD PUT MOST ALL OF THE AREA EASILY INTO
THE 70S FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE RIGHT ON
THE IMMEDIATE COAST, WHERE COLDER WATER TEMPS SHOULD MANAGE TO
KEEP THOSE BEACH TEMPS JUST ON THE LOW SIDE OF 70 DEGREES.
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS GAUGING HOW STRONG
RIDGING WILL BE THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
WARMING. THE QUALITATIVE TREND OF THE DETERMINISTIC NBM SEEMS TO
HOLD PRETTY WELL, WITH WARMING CONTINUING PRETTY MUCH THROUGH THE
WHOLE FORECAST PERIOD, BARRING A BIT OF A PAUSE ON TUESDAY; WE'LL
GET TO THAT SHORTLY. LIKE LAST NIGHT, I DID TEND TO HEDGE AGAINST
THE DETERMINISTIC NBM NUMBERS BY REPLACING IT WITH THE MEDIAN OF
THE NBM PROBABILISTIC DISTRIBUTION WHERE THAT NUMBER WAS HIGHER.
WITH ONSHORE FLOW BECOMING PERSISTENT, THAT MOVE GENERALLY BUMPED
UP LOWS NEAR THE COAST, WHICH STRIKES ME AS A GOOD MOVE. IT ALSO
NUDGES AFTERNOON HIGHS UP MODESTLY.
THIS ALSO SEEMS LIKE THE WAY TO GO FOR NOW - WHILE ENSEMBLE MID-
LEVEL HEIGHTS AND 850 TEMPS ARE DEFINITELY SKEWING TOWARDS THE
HIGH END OF THEIR CLIMATOLOGY, IT IS STILL NOT A SLAM DUNK
INDICATION OF REAL EXTREME WARM EVENT. THE EPS EXTREME FORECAST
INDEX/EFI ALSO CONTINUES TO WAGGLE ITS EYEBROWS ABOUT HIGH-END
HEAT FOR LATE WINTER, BUT DON'T REALLY VENTURE INTO THE "YES, LOOK
OUT FOR BIG WARMTH" TERRITORY. THIS IS IN BOTH THE EFI ITSELF,
AND IN NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE ACCOMPANYING SHIFT- OF-TAILS VALUES.
WHERE THE EFI ITSELF HELPS GAUGE CONFIDENCE IN MODELED EXTREMES,
THE SHIFT-OF-TAILS TRIES TO GIVE SOME INDICATION OF JUST HOW
EXTREME THE EXTREME MAY BE. LONG STORY SHORT (TOO LATE!), ALL OF
THIS ENSEMBLE DATA TELLS ME THAT WHILE I SHOULD BE CONFIDENT TO
GO WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH MY TEMPERATURES, I PROBABLY
DON'T WANT TO GO PLAYING IN RECORD TERRITORY JUST YET. IT DOESN'T
TAKE MUCH OF AN UPWARDS HEDGE ON NBM TO HIT THAT MARK.
FINALLY, LET'S STEP BACK TO TUESDAY. NBM FINALLY SEEMS TO HAVE
CAUGHT ON TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO GO WITH THE
RAIN SHOWERS AS THIS UPPER TROUGH SHOOTS THROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN
STREAM. THIS'LL GIVE US A ONE DAY BREAK FROM STACKED RIDGING, MORE
CLOUDS, A PAUSE ON THE WARMING TREND FOR A DAY, AND *FINGERS
CROSSED!* ENOUGH COVERAGE IN SHOWERS AND STORMS TO GIVE US A
LITTLE MORE HELP ON THE DROUGHT FRONT. I DON'T ANTICIPATE IT WILL
BE MUCH ON THE BROAD SCALE, BUT EVERY LITTLE BIT HELPS!
NOW, I HAD MENTIONED SOME DETERMINISTIC MODEL STUFF LAST NIGHT AS
A POTENTIAL WORST CASE SCENARIO, BECAUSE THE EURO SETUP HAD
CAUGHT MY EYE FOR NOT JUST STORMS, BUT MAYBE EVEN SOMETHING STRONG
TO SEVERE. TONIGHT, WE HAVE A GOOD EXAMPLE OF WHY WE CAN NOTE
THINGS IN DETERMINISTIC MODELS, WE DON'T WANT TO GET TOO ATTACHED
TO THEM (ESPECIALLY AT RANGE). THOSE DETERMINISTIC MODELS AREN'T
QUITE SO CONCERNING THIS GO 'ROUND. STILL RAIN, STILL SOME
THUNDERSTORMS, BUT NOTHING THAT MAKES ME STOP AND GO "UH OH".
(ANOTHER GOOD EXAMPLE, SOMETHING SOMETHING VALENTINE'S DAY
BLIZZARD OR SOMETHING LIKE THAT? I WAS OFF THAT DAY, WHAT HAPPENED
TO THAT THING?). THAT SAID, I DON'T WANT TO COMPLETELY DISMISS
THE IDEA OF SOMETHING STRONGER ON TUESDAY. WE STILL HAVE A FAIRLY
POTENT TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH, AN UPPER JET STREAK, AND AN INFLUX
OF MOISTURE AT LOW LEVELS. IF ALL THOSE INGREDIENTS LINE UP JUST
RIGHT/WRONG, STRONGER STORMS COULD BE BACK ON THE TABLE. BUT THE
FACT THAT SUCH A SCENARIO ONLY FLITS INTO THE MODEL PICTURE HERE
AND THERE IS A GOOD INDICATOR TO ME THAT IT'S SOMETHING TO
CONSIDER AS A LOW PROBABILITY/WORST CASE SCENARIO, WHILE THE MORE
LIKELY OUTCOME IS LESS INTENSE AND MORE BENEFICIAL TO THE AREA'S
RAINFALL DEFICITS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 537 PM CST THU FEB 5 2026
VFR THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT W TO VRB WINDS EXPECTED
TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING, THEN STRENGTHENING TO 5-10 KTS FRI
AFTERNOON. THERE'S THE POSSIBILITY OF LLVL WS AROUND 09-12Z FRI,
MAINLY FOR SITES NEAR AND EAST OF I45.
COTTO
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1156 PM CST THU FEB 5 2026
WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE ELEVATED ENOUGH,
15 TO 20 KNOTS, THAT CAUTION FLAGS ARE UP ON GULF WATERS INTO
SATURDAY. OTHERWISE, GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS WILL
PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL BEGIN SOUTHWESTERLY TO
WESTERLY, THEN BRIEFLY BECOME OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY BEFORE FINALLY
VEERING TO BECOME EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL NOT BE COME UNTIL TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT.
ON THE BAYS, NEGATIVE TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. THE
MOST SEVERE CONDITIONS CAN CONTINUE TO BE EXPECTED ON UPPER
PORTIONS OF GALVESTON BAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, THERE MAY
BE TIMES WHEN WATER LEVELS ARE NOT SO LOW AS TO REQUIRE A LOW
WATER ADVISORY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 43 79 47 76 / 0 0 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 47 77 51 74 / 0 0 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 52 67 54 62 / 0 0 0 0
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST FRIDAY FOR GMZ335.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
GMZ350-355.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
GMZ370-375.
DISCUSSION...LUCHS
AVIATION...COTTO
MARINE...LUCHS
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