957
FXUS64 KHGX 071128
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
528 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK.
- A CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THESE STORMS TO BE ON THE STRONGER
SIDE.
- POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND SEA FOG INCREASES TONIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS STATIONED OVER THE REGION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 70S THROUGH
MONDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. SSE WINDS
WILL BEGIN ON SUNDAY AND RESULT IN AN UPTICK IN MOISTURE TO START
OFF THE WORK WEEK. THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE COMBINED WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND A STABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL RESULT IN INCREASED POTENTIAL
FOR FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING PERIODS EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
ALSO KICKING OFF THE WORK-WEEK WILL BE AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT
WILL MOVE INTO BAJA CALIFORNIA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING,
AND WILL PASS THROUGH TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WHILE
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE THROUGH SE TX AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW
TUESDAY MORNING, THE MAIN DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY YIELD SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MOST OF TUESDAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME OF THESE STORMS TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE, BUT
CONFIDENCE ON THIS IS LOW. A FEW MODELS HAVE SUGGESTED BULK SHEAR
VALUES OF AROUND 50 KTS (MORE THAN SUITABLE FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION) AND WITH A JET STREAK OVERHEAD, STORMS WOULD HAVE
ENHANCED LIFT. THE CAVEAT IS THAT CAPE IS ON THE LOWER END, AND
HOW MUCH MOISTURE WOULD BE AVAILABLE FOR STORMS TO WORK WITH. IN
ANY CASE, SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON AS WE GET CLOSER TO TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL COME DOWN A BIT ON TUESDAY WITH THE INCREASED
CLOUD COVER AND POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION (THOUGH STILL ABOVE
THE SEASONAL NORMAL). HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM BEHIND
TUESDAY'S DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR
WEDNESDAY AS HIGHS APPROACH THE LOW 80S FOR PARTS OF THE REGION.
BAILEY
AVIATION
(12Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 520 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND THIS EVENING. DIFFUSE BACKDOOR FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL PRODUCE A WIND SHIFT, ALBEIT WEAK, TO THE NE-E THIS
MORNING ALONG THE I-45 TERMINALS. IT'LL EVENTUALLY WASHOUT AND
WE'LL SEE A RETURN OF SE WINDS LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT AREAS OF
FOG TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF I-10 AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 288 BETWEEN
6-9Z...EXPANDING NE TOWARD AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF CLL-CXO,
INCLUDING THE METRO AREAS AFTER 9Z. VISIBILITIES COULD BECOME
LOCALLY DENSE, BUT FOR NOW HAVE STARTED OUT ON THE CONSERVATIVE
ROUTE IN THE 12Z TAFS. IT SHOULD BURN OFF BY 15Z SUNDAY. 4
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT, SHIFTING TO EASTERLY SATURDAY
MORNING FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK, DRY FRONT. THERE MAY BE A
BRIEF PERIOD DURING THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON WHEN
GUSTS MAY INCREASE TO AROUND 20KT, BUT OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE
10-15KT THROUGH THE DAY. LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK.
THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE MOISTURE TO THE REGION, SO
MONITORING THE POTENTIAL OF PATCHY FOG IN THE NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE BAYS WHERE INLAND FOG MAY SPILL OVER INTO THE BAYS TONIGHT,
FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CHANCES OF SEA FOG SUNDAY NIGHT (AND
POSSIBLY SEVERAL NIGHTS NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 78 49 77 56 / 0 0 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 75 51 76 57 / 0 0 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 62 55 65 58 / 0 0 0 0
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BAILEY
AVIATION...COTTO
MARINE...BAILEY
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