698
FXUS64 KHGX 272305
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
505 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ONSHORE WINDS QUICKLY RETURN LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH RIDGING
BUILDING ALOFT THIS WEEKEND. MORE PERIODS OF LOW VISIBILITY AND
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE.
- FEW COLD FRONTS WILL TRY BUT ARE UNLIKELY TO REACH SE TEXAS NEXT
WEEK. WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1157 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2026
WHILE THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED OFF THE COAST, THIS AFTERNOON IS
STILL EXPECTED TO BE PRETTY WARM, POSSIBLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY IN
A FEW SPOTS DUE TO CLEAR SKIES AND DRIER CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON RH
IS ANTICIPATED TO DROP TO AROUND 20-40% FOR MOST INLAND AREAS,
THOUGH SOME DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD LINGER OVER THE COAST WHERE RH
REMAINS AROUND 40-70%). STILL NOT DRY/WINDY ENOUGH TO PROMPT ANY
SIGNIFICANT FIRE WX CONCERNS, BUT ENOUGH TO BE WORTHY OF A
MENTION. ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS LATE THIS AFTERNOON, USHERING IN A
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS RIDGING BUILDS ALOFT. EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE 70S/80S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S/LOWER 60S. WITH DEEP
MOISTURE NEAR THE COAST AND ONSHORE FLOW QUICKLY RESUMING, WE'LL
STILL NEED TO BE MINDFUL OF FOG OVER THE WEEKEND DURING THE
NIGHTTIME. FOR TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY, THE RISK OF FOG IS GENERALLY
GREATER SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR, ESPECIALLY TO THE SOUTHWEST
WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE LINGERS.
STILL EXPECTING A FEW SHORTWAVES & DISTURBANCES PASS TO THE NORTH OF
OUR AREA NEXT WEEK. FIRST OF THESE OCCURS ON MONDAY, WHERE A COLD
FRONT ATTEMPTS TO SCOOT ITS WAY INTO SE TEXAS. DETERMINISTIC GFS HAS
BACKED OFF AND NOW KEEPS THAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY FURTHER NORTH, NO
LONGER BRINGING IT THROUGH SE TEXAS. THE NEXT POSSIBLE FRONT WOULD
BE AROUND WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WITH THE NBM INTRODUCING POPS AROUND
THIS TIME FROM THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER LIFT IN THE VICINITY
OF THIS FRONT. STILL, THE DETERMINISTIC GFS HAS THE FRONT STALLING
JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA, AND THE LREF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW
INCREDIBLY STRONG AGREEMENT TOWARDS A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY WINDS AT
KCLL THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. PERHAPS WE WILL SEE SOME
SHOWERS, BE PRESENTLY IT DOESN'T SEEM LIKE WELL GET A ROBUST COLD
FRONT ANYTIME SOON. CLOUD COVER MAY HELP SHAVE OFF SOME OF THE
HEAT, BUT OVERALL IT'LL BE WARM THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS
STILL IN THE 70S/MID 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD RISE INTO THE 60S.
03
AVIATION
(00Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 505 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2026
NORTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL TREND TOWARDS BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE GOING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE MAIN STORY
CONTINUES TO BE PATCHY TO AREAS OF DENSE FOG. DRIER AIR IN THE
WAKE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO ENCOMPASS MOST OF THE AREA
EXCEPT RIGHT ALONG THE COAST WHERE SEA FOG IS ALREADY LURKING
OFFSHORE. THIS DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY MODIFY OVERNIGHT AS DEW
POINTS INCREASE, ESPECIALLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-10. MODEL GUIDANCE
REFLECTS A RATHER SHARP CUTOFF BETWEEN LIFR CONDITIONS DUE TO
DENSE FOG AND VFR CONDITIONS. THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR PATCHY
FOG IS SOUTH OF I-10 AND WEST OF I-45. IAH LOOKS TO BE RIGHT ON
THE EDGE. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG ADVECTING OFF OF LAKE
HOUSTON, I KEPT IN THE TEMPO FOR THEM OVERNIGHT. ANY FOG/LOW
CEILINGS THAT DEVELOP WILL DISSIPATE AROUND 15Z-16Z MAKING WAY FOR
VFR CONDITIONS AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 7-10 KT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF REDUCED
VISIBILITIES/CEILINGS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
BATISTE
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1157 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2026
POCKETS OF SEA FOG LINGER ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON.
MOST POCKETS SHOULD CLEAR LATER TODAY. DRIER AIR FILLING IN FROM THE
NORTH MAY HELP, THOUGH WITH EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
ANTICIPATED TO QUICKLY RETURN, DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD LINGER NEAR
THE COAST WITH DEWPOINTS JUST BARELY AT WATER TEMPERATURES. THIS MAY
RESULT IN ANOTHER NIGHT OF INLAND FOG SPILLOVER & SEA FOG. EXTENT
AND COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE AS WATERS WARM. OTHERWISE, LIGHT WINDS
AND LOW SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS AND SEAS
MAY INCREASE NEAR THE CAUTION FLAG THRESHOLD AT TIMES AROUND THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
03
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 54 84 57 84 / 0 0 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 57 83 60 81 / 0 0 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 60 73 62 72 / 0 0 0 0
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST SATURDAY FOR GMZ350-355.
DISCUSSION...03
AVIATION...BATISTE
MARINE...03
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