961
FXUS64 KHGX 022330
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
530 PM CST MON MAR 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- FOG WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY NIGHTLY THROUGH THE NEXT FEW
NIGHTS.
- UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEK.
- SOME ISOLATED RAINFALL EXPECTED MIDWEEK, BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CST MON MAR 2 2026
WE'LL FINISH UP THE FIRST DAY OF THE NEW WORK WEEK WITH WARM AND
PLEASANT WEATHER. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE 70S/MID 80S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ARE ANTICIPATED TO
PASS NORTH OF OUR AREA THROUGHOUT THE WORK WEEK, EACH OF WHICH WILL
ATTEMPT TO SEND A COLD FRONT OUR WAY. THE FIRST OF THESE FRONTS IS
STALLING NEAR NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS AND SHOULD RETREAT NORTH TONIGHT.
THE NEXT FRONT SHOULD BE APPROACHING SE TEXAS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING, BUT IT TOO LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STALL OUT NEAR THE
RED RIVER VALLEY BEFORE REACHING US. EVEN WITH THE FRONT TO OUR
NORTH, THE INFLUX OF DEEPER MOISTURE (1.3-1.6" PWS) AND LIFT SHOULD
AT LEAST INTRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST
BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY. ANTICIPATE A LULL IN POPS FOR THURSDAY AS
THE FRONT RETREATS NORTH. OTHERWISE, WARM WEATHER WILL BE ALLOWED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S/MID 80S WITH
LOWS IN THE 60S.
ONE MORE FRONT SHOULD PUSH TOWARDS SE TEXAS HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND, AND AS IT CURRENTLY STANDS, THIS FRONT HAS MUCH BETTER
CHANCES OF REACHING OUR AREA. LREF ENSEMBLES HAVE PUSHED BACK THIS
FRONT MORE TOWARDS THE SUNDAY TIME FRAME, AND ON THE WHOLE LESS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE SHOWING THE NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT INDICATIVE
OF A FROPA AT KCLL, INDICATING THAT THE FRONT COULD VERY WELL
STALL OUT JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA. IN ADDITION, DIFFERENT MEMBERS
SOLUTIONS SEEM TO BE MORE DISTINCTLY SEPARATED BY SUITE WITH ENS
MEMBERS LEANING TOWARDS KEEPING THE FRONT OUT/NORTH OF SE TEXAS.
CURRENT GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS BETTER RAIN CHANCES AND OVERALL
COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
POSITION OF THIS FRONT IS LOW AT THE MOMENT. WITH A STALLED
BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY, DEEPER PWS OF 1.5-1.8" AND A ROBUST
UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHING FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA, LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN THROUGHOUT THIS WEEKEND. AGAIN,
IT'S SEVERAL DAYS OUT AND THE SPECIFIC DETAILS WILL LIKELY CHANGE
AS A RESULT, SO STAY TUNED FOR FORECAST UPDATES.
03
AVIATION
(00Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 529 PM CST MON MAR 2 2026
NOT MANY CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS CYCLE. MAIN QUESTION WILL BE
HANDLING OF NOCTURNAL DEGRADATION OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS WITH CIGS
AND/OR VSBY LIMITATIONS. WHEN THERE WAS A DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE
TWO, MY TENDENCY WAS TO FAVOR PERSISTENCE OVER GUIDANCE
(SOMETIMES THIS WAS OPTIMISTIC, SOMETIMES PESSIMISTIC), BUT LEAVE
OPPORTUNITIES FOR QUICK AND EASY AMENDMENT IF NEEDED, AND TO
SIGNAL ALTERNATE POTENTIAL.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CST MON MAR 2 2026
SEA FOG CHANCES CONTINUE TO DECREASE, BUT REMAIN POSSIBLE THESE NEXT
FEW NIGHTS. IF ANY DEVELOPS, SEA FOG SHOULD BE PATCHY IN NATURE WITH
ONLY ISOLATED SMALLER POCKETS OF DENSE SEA FOG DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND LOW SEAS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. LOW RAIN CHANCES RETURN ON
WEDNESDAY, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AHEAD OF
ANOTHER POSSIBLE COLD FRONT.
03
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 63 85 66 84 / 0 0 10 40
HOUSTON (IAH) 66 83 68 83 / 0 10 0 30
GALVESTON (GLS) 65 75 65 75 / 0 10 0 20
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...03
AVIATION...LUCHS
MARINE...03
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