540
FXUS64 KHGX 112337
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
637 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON. SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF BECOMING STRONG
TO SEVERE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS, HAIL,
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO ARE THE MAIN
HAZARDS.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE AND BEACH CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH STRONG WINDS AND SEAS. THERE IS ALSO A
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG ALL GULF-FACING BEACHES THROUGH
THIS EVENING.
- A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND,
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COOL-DOWN AFTER THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 112 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
RADAR HAS BLOSSOMED AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO AHEAD OF A PRE-
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS CONDUCIVE TO STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY. A STRONG DEFORMATION
ZONE WITH ROBUST FRONTOGENESIS HAS PROVIDED THE REGION WITH AMPLE
LIFT. STRONG 0-6 KM SHEAR (50-60 KTS), AND MODERATE INSTABILITY ARE
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SOME STRONGER UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
WIND GUSTS FROM 45 TO 60 MPH. GIVEN 0-1 KM SHEAR OF AROUND 20
KNOTS AND 0-2 KM VGA BETWEEN 0.27-0.35; AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER INCREASES AS THE
STORM MOVES EAST-NORTHEAST INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH 6 PM THIS EVENING. LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL IS ALSO EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH
RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 IN/HR. HIGHEST STORM TOTALS EXPECTED
NORTH OF I-10 THROUGH SUNSET. RAIN/STORMS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING.
THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL BE REACHING THE REGION AROUND SUNSET,
BRINGING STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS IN ITS WAKE. BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 15 TO 25 MPH AT
TIMES. STRONGEST GUSTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE BAYS AND COASTAL WATERS
WHERE GUSTS FROM 30 TO 40 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED.
DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT, LEADING
TO A PLEASANT THURSDAY. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE IN THE 60S UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY, AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT SLACKENS.
A WARM UP WILL RETURN FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS GRADUALLY
WARMING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY SUNDAY. THE GOOD NEWS (IF YOU
ENJOY SPRING-LIKE CONDITIONS) IS THAT COOLER AND BREEZY WEATHER
RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION.
JM
AVIATION
(00Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
EXPECT MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS A SECOND COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH SE TEXAS THIS
EVENING. CHANCE FOR RAIN ENDS AND SKIES WILL BE LIFTING AND
CLEARING JUST BEFORE 05Z TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE
REGION. WINDS TONIGHT INTO 12Z THU WILL BE NW-N AROUND 16-22 KTS
WITH GUSTS OF 24-30 KTS INLAND AND 20-30 KTS WITH GUSTS UP OF
25-35 KTS ALONG THE COASTS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LLVL WIND
SHEAR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WHICH MAY BE ADDED TO THE 06Z
TAF ISSUANCE. FROM AROUND 12Z-18Z, EXPECT N-NE WINDS AT 15-20 KTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS INLAND, SLIGHTLY STRONGER ALONG THE
COASTS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RELAX AFTER 18Z, WITH CALM VRB WINDS
EXPECTED THU NIGHT.
COTTO
MARINE
ISSUED AT 112 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND
MOVE ACROSS THE BAYS AND GULF WATERS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE ENTERING THE
COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS EVENING. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE STRONG
WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 35 KNOTS AND SEAS FROM 5 TO
10 FT ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS EVENING INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GALE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, WITH GUSTS UP TO 40
KNOTS THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. GALE WARNINGS AND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT. STRONG ONSHORE WINDS WILL ALSO LEAD TO LOW
WATER LEVELS ACROSS THE BAYS DURING LOW TIDE TIMES ON THURSDAY.
LATEST PTESS SUGGEST WATER LEVELS AS LOW AS 0.5 - 1.0 BELOW MLLW;
THEREFORE A LOW WATER ADVISORY WILL BE POSSIBLE IN FUTURE UPDATES. A
GRADUAL IMPROVE IN WINDS AND SEAS CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED BY EARLY
THURSDAY EVENING WITH ONSHORE WINDS QUICKLY RESUMING THROUGH THE
NIGHT.
JM
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 44 66 41 75 / 20 0 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 49 67 46 75 / 30 0 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 54 66 57 69 / 20 0 0 0
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ436>439.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM CDT
THURSDAY FOR GMZ330-335.
GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR
GMZ350-370.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 4 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR GMZ350-
370.
GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR
GMZ355-375.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 4 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR GMZ355-
375.
DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...COTTO
MARINE...JM
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