933
FXUS64 KHGX 140527
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1227 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- A GRADUAL WARMING TREND CONTINUES THIS WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY SUNDAY.
- ANOTHER COOLDOWN IS ON THE WAY AFTER THE NEXT COLD FRONT, WHICH
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS/STORMS LATE SUNDAY. STRONG STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
THROUGH MONDAY: STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS (GUSTING TO 40+ KT),
ELEVATED SEAS (9-14 FT), AND POTENTIAL FOR NEGATIVE TIDES.
- MONITORING THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON
MONDAY AS VERY DRY AIR OVERLAPS WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1216 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE
IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S INLAND AND THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
OVER THE HOUSTON METRO AND COASTAL LOCATIONS. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPLY MOISTURE FROM THE GULF AND MAINTAIN A WARMING
TREND ON SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS ALREADY BACK IN THE 80S FOR MANY
LOCATIONS. RISING HUMIDITY WILL LEAD TO VERY LOW DEW POINT
DEPARTURE DURING THE OVERNIGHT TO EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING AND PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST TX (IF WINDS ARE LIGHT ENOUGH).
SUNDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY THIS WEEKEND AS MOISTURE CONVERGES
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM AND WINDS BECOME SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY,
WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 80S - ROUGHLY 8 TO 14 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. IT WILL AT LEAST BE BREEZY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS (WINDS AT AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH) AND A LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS, BUT BE PREPARED FOR THE WARMTH IF YOU PLAN TO SPEND
TIME AND WORK OUTDOORS. FOR THOSE WANTING TO VISIT THE BEACHES,
MAKE SURE TO VERIFY THE MARINE AND BEACH FLAG CONDITIONS GIVEN
THAT WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BUILDING AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS MAY
DEVELOP.
WE ARE STILL EXPECTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOMETIME LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY EVENING AS A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DEEPENS OVER THE PLAINS SUNDAY MORNING AND A FAST MOVING COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS LATE AFTERNOON TO EVENING. EVEN
WITH HAVING SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY AND SATURDAY, INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE LEVELS ON SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE RATHER LIMITED WITH PWS
STILL UNDER 1.0 INCH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW THE ENVIRONMENT
TO BE CAPPED POSSIBLY EVEN INTO THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. THUS,
ITS MORE LIKELY TO SEE THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
OCCURING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS CONDITIONS BECOME MORE
UNSTABLE, MOISTURE CONVERGES, AND LIFT INCREASES JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THE 30-45 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO BE PRESENT DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS, STRONGEST OVER AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF I-45,
THUS, WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON HOW MUCH SHEAR WILL BE
PRESENT AS THESE STORMS ROLL THROUGH. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME OF THESE STORMS TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE AND SPC CONTINUES
A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) OVER THE PINEY WOODS REGION (WHERE
THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE) AND A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL
1 OF 5) FOR THE REST OF SOUTHEAST TX.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, THE FRONT IS TO PASS THROUGH SOUTHEAST TX
VERY QUICKLY - GOING FROM THE BRAZOS VALLEY TO THE COASTAL WATERS
IN ABOUT 5-6 HOURS. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, COLD DRY AIR WILL
QUICKLY FILTER IN ALONG WITH A 50-60 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET. EXPECT
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH
SPEEDS RANGING BETWEEN 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH, HIGHEST
OVER THE COASTAL LOCATIONS. THUS, WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED,
IN PARTICULAR OVER THE COASTAL LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP
FAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S FOR MANY LOCATIONS BY SUNRISE ON MONDAY. HELLO WINTER?
WINDS RELAX MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH COLDER CONDITIONS PREVAILING.
I'M NOT GOING TO SUGAR COAT THAT IT WILL BE A LITTLE SHOCKING
GOING FROM HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ON SUNDAY TO HIGHS IN THE
50S ON MONDAY. BUT WE WILL TAKE IT ANY DAY :D! THE ONE THING WE
WILL HAVE TO BE CAREFUL WITH ON MONDAY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER GIVEN HOW DRY AND BREEZY WE WILL BE (MORE
DETAILS ON THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW).
MONDAY NIGHT, THE SECOND NIGHT OF CAA, WILL BE THE COLDEST WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S (NEAR FREEZING) OVER THE PINEY WOODS, THE
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S FOR THE REST OF THE INLAND PORTIONS, AND THE
MID TO UPPER 40S ALONG THE COASTS. BRRR. THE FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
UNFORTUNATELY, SOUTHERLY FLOW ALREADY RETURNS BY TUESDAY AND WILL
ONCE AGAIN BRING US A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK AND HIGHS WILL BOUNCE BACK INTO THE 80S BY THURSDAY. SIGH.
COTTO
AVIATION
(00Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 611 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
VFR THROUGHOUT THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT TO
2-5 KTS AND SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE VRB WINDS AT TIMES. S-SE WINDS
WILL STRENGTHEN AGAIN ON SAT TO AROUND 08-14 KTS WITH GUSTS OF
AROUND 18-22 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. LOCALIZED PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SE TEXAS.
LOOKING AHEAD FOR THE SAT NIGHT PERIOD, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BE ON THE RISE AND COULD LEAD TO MVFR CEILINGS OVER MOST LOCATIONS
IN SE TEXAS. THERE IS THE CHANCE FOR SOME SITES TO HAVE PATCHY
FOG DURING THE LATE NIGHT TO EARLY MORNING HOURS, BUT WILL DEPEND
ON WHETHER WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH. IN ADDITION, A LOW LEVEL
JET OF 30-35 KTS WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST AND WE MIGHT
SEE SOME PERIODS OF LLVL WIND SHEAR AT TIMES EARLY SUN. THE JET IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND WE COULD HAVE WIND SHEAR
OCCURING WELL INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
COTTO
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1216 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS
WILL BE 2-3 FEET THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, BUILDING ON SUNDAY AS
WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. THERE'S THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG RIP CURRENTS TO DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AS WINDS AND SEAS
BUILD.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS VERY QUICKLY
SOMETIME SUNDAY EVENING OR EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT. ASSOCIATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOSTLY FOCUSED ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT
PUSHES THROUGH AND SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP. EXPECT SPEEDS TO RANGE BETWEEN 30-35 KNOTS AND GUSTS
BETWEEN 40-45 KNOTS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD
TO 8-14 FEET. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AND GALE WARNINGS WILL BE
LIKELY. IN ADDITION, LOW WATER LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE BAYS.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK.
COTTO
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1216 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
VERY DRY AIR WILL FILTER ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX IN THE WAKE OF
SUNDAY'S FRONT. EXPECT ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK AS AFTERNOON RH
VALUES LOWER INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S ON MONDAY AND
NORTHERLY WINDS RANGE BETWEEN 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 25
MPH. DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL ON TUESDAY, ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE
BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY AND MUCH LIGHTER. RH VALUES WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE MID WEEK INTO THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS PREVAIL AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RECOVERS.
COTTO
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 63 88 38 55 / 0 0 10 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 65 86 44 56 / 0 10 40 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 68 77 48 59 / 0 0 60 0
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...COTTO
AVIATION...COTTO
MARINE...COTTO
FIRE WEATHER...COTTO
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