046
FXUS64 KHGX 150527
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1227 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY, WITH HIGHS REACHING
THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
- ANOTHER COOLDOWN IS ON THE WAY AFTER THE NEXT COLD FRONT, WHICH
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
- A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT SUNDAY MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST TX.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
THROUGH MONDAY: STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS (GUSTING TO 40+ KT),
ELEVATED SEAS (10-15 FT), AND POTENTIAL FOR NEGATIVE TIDES. A
GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
- MONITORING THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ON MONDAY AS VERY DRY AIR OVERLAPS WITH GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AT
AROUND 10 MPH AND LOWS IN THE 60S. SOME ISOLATED LOCATIONS COULD
SEE SOME PATCHY FOG, BUT WINDS WILL LIKELY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
DETER FOG DEVELOPMENT FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WE WILL, HOWEVER, HAVE
LOW CLOUD DECKS DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS
WILL WARM UP QUICK ON SUNDAY AS MOISTURE CONVERGES AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT, AND HIGHS WILL BE PEAKING IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S INLAND
AND THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE COASTS. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS PRIOR TO
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY AT 15 TO 25
MPH WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 25 TO 30 MPH. A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN
EFFECT STARTING AT 10 AM SUNDAY. MAKE SURE TO SECURE LOOSE
OBJECTS. FOR THOSE WANTING TO VISIT THE BEACHES, MAKE SURE TO
VERIFY THE MARINE AND BEACH FLAG CONDITIONS GIVEN THAT WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BE RISING AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE
BEACHES.
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT ON HOW FAST THE COLD FRONT IS
TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THE FRONT WILL BE VERY
PROGRESSIVE, PROGGED TO ARRIVE THE BRAZOS VALLEY AND PINEY WOODS
REGION ROUGHLY AROUND 4 PM AND MAKE IT INTO THE COASTAL GULF
WATERS AROUND 9 PM. WITH RESPECT TO RAIN CHANCES, MOISTURE WILL BE
A BIT LIMITED WITH PWS RISING TO AROUND 0.8-0.9 INCHES, AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW CAPPING DURING THE MORNING TO MID
AFTERNOON HOURS. THUS, VERY LIMITED RAIN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE FOCUSED
ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS INSTABILITY INCREASES (WEAKENING THE CAP),
MOISTURE CONVERGES STRENGTHENS, AND WE HAVE THE ADDED LIFT FROM
THE FRONT. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 7 C/KM AND SHEAR WILL
BE PRESENT AS THE FRONT ROLLS THROUGH AS WELL. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THESE STORMS TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE,
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. SPC CONTINUES A
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) OVER THE PINEY WOODS REGION AND A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR THE REST OF SOUTHEAST TX. MAKE
SURE TO HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS OF RECEIVING WEATHER ALERTS AND
WARNINGS.
COLD DRY AIR ALONG WITH A 50-60 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL QUICKLY
FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY - SPEEDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 20-30
MPH WITH GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH, HIGHEST OVER THE COASTAL LOCATIONS.
THE WIND ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY.
MAKE SURE TO SECURE LOOSE AND LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS. STRONG WINDS
COULD ALSO LEAD TO POWER OUTAGES AT TIMES. THE TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL DIP FAST WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO MID 40S FOR MANY LOCATIONS BY SUNRISE ON MONDAY.
WINDS BEGIN TO SLOWLY DECREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THE COLDER
CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S - A STARK DIFFERENCE FROM
SUNDAY'S WARM TEMPERATURES. BUT WE'RE NOT MAD ABOUT IT AT ALL :D.
THE ONE THING WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY ON MONDAY IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER GIVEN HOW DRY AND WINDY WE
WILL BE (MORE DETAILS ON THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW). WINDS
WILL RELAX TO AROUND 5-10 MPH EARLY MONDAY NIGHT AND CAA WILL
CONTINUE DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS, GIVING US THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK. EXPECT LOWS TO BE IN THE LOWER 30S
(NEAR FREEZING) OVER THE PINEY WOODS, THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S FOR
THE REST OF THE INLAND PORTIONS, AND THE MID TO UPPER 40S ALONG
THE COASTS.
FAIR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN TUESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK, RESULTING IN ANOTHER WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS BACK
IN THE 80S BY THURSDAY AND THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S THIS
WEEKEND.
COTTO
AVIATION
(00Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 550 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING, THEN EXPECT MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUN MORNING OVER MUCH OF SE TEXAS. S-SE WINDS
WILL REMAIN RATHER ELEVATED, ROUGHLY AROUND 10 KNOTS TONIGHT. ON
SUN, WINDS WILL BECOME S-SW AND INCREASE TO 12-18 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
OF AROUND 22-28 KNOTS. A VERY PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH SE TEXAS SUN LATE AFTERNOON TO EVENING AND WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME POSSIBLY BECOMING
STRONG TO SEVERE. MAIN HAZARDS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA, EXPECT STRONG N WINDS AT 20-25 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS OF 28-35 KNOTS SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING ALONG WITH
LLVL WIND SHEAR OF AROUND 50 KNOTS (WS020/35050KT). WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO RELAX MON AFTERNOON AND RELAX TO AROUND 5 KNOTS MON
NIGHT.
COTTO
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW AND SEAS OF 2-3 FEET EXPECTED
TONIGHT. WINDS INCREASE SUNDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT AND
SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN
EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM SUNDAY. FOR THOSE VISITING THE BEACHES
ON SUNDAY, MAKE SURE TO CHECK THE BEACH FLAG CONDITIONS GIVEN THAT
THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE
GULF FACING BEACHES.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS VERY QUICKLY
EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT. ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
MOSTLY FOCUSED ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT PUSHES THROUGH AND SOME OF
THESE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT, STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OF 30-35 KNOTS AND GUSTS OF 40-45
KNOTS WILL DEVELOP. A GALE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE IN EFFECT FROM
SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION, LOW WATER
LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE BAYS.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RELAX MONDAY EVENING AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS RETURN
TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THURSDAY. WINDS MAY VEER SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
COTTO
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
VERY DRY AIR WILL FILTER ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX IN THE WAKE OF
SUNDAY'S FRONT. EXPECT ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS AS AFTERNOON RH VALUES LOWER INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20S ON MONDAY AND NORTHERLY WINDS ARE AROUND 20 MPH WITH
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR
MOST OF SOUTHEAST TX ON MONDAY. DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL ON
TUESDAY, BUT WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHEASTERLY AND BE MUCH LIGHTER. RH
VALUES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE MID WEEK INTO THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK AS SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS PREVAIL AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RECOVERS.
COTTO
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 40 54 34 66 / 10 0 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 45 56 40 64 / 30 0 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 50 58 49 61 / 50 0 0 0
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CDT MONDAY FOR
TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-
335>338-436>439.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR TXZ176-177-195>199-210>214-226-227-235>238-313-335>338.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.
GALE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR GMZ330-
335-350-355-370-375.
DISCUSSION...COTTO
AVIATION...COTTO
MARINE...COTTO
FIRE WEATHER...COTTO
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