710
FXUS64 KHGX 161908
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
208 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT FREEZE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING IN PORTIONS
OF THE PINEY WOODS/BRAZOS VALLEY. A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT
FOR THESE LOCATIONS.
- ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ONGOING TODAY AS
VERY DRY AIR OVERLAPS WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS. A RED FLAG
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST TX THRU 7PM
MONDAY.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
THROUGH MONDAY: MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS (GUSTING TO
30-35 KT), ELEVATED SEAS (8-12 FT), AND NEGATIVE TIDES IN
GALVESTON BAY THROUGH TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT AND A LOW WATER ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING.
- WARMING TREND FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
LIKELY APPROACHING THE 90S OVER THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 208 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
WELCOME BACK, WINTER! IT IS STILL ASTRONOMICAL WINTER FOR A FEW MORE
DAYS, AND I'M GLAD WE HAVE AT LEAST ONE MORE GOOD COOLDOWN BEFORE
WE MOVE INTO THE DREADED PART OF THE CALENDER YEAR. WE'LL
ACTUALLY GET A FREE TRIAL OF SUMMER THIS WEEKEND, BUT I'M GETTING
AHEAD OF MYSELF...WE'LL SAVE THAT FUN FOR LATER. WE STARTED OFF
THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS STILL ADVECTING IN COLDER AIR. THIS AFTERNOON
WE'LL ONLY SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S...THE LAST TIME THIS
HAPPENED WAS FEBRUARY 1ST (43 DAYS AGO). IF I HAD TO WAGER A
GUESS, THIS IS LIKELY THE LAST OCCURRENCE UNTIL THE FALL...SO SOAK
IT IN!
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE AS A 35-45 KT LLJ REMAINS OVERHEAD.
ALTHOUGH IT IS GRADUALLY WEAKENING, WE'RE STILL ABLE TO SEE
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 40 MPH AT TIMES
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. AS A RESULT, A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT THROUGH 6PM THIS EVENING. COMBINE THAT WITH VERY DRY AIR AND
INCREASINGLY DRYING FUELS, AND WE HAVE ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST TX. A RED FLAG WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7PM THIS EVENING...SEE THE FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS ON THAT.
UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE LATER TODAY AS AN
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH. THIS CLOUD COVER CLEARS OUT GOING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, AND THAT'LL PAIR WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDING OVERHEAD. WHO HERE KNOWS THE MAGIC EQUATION FOR MAX
RADIATIONAL COOLING? EHH I SUPPOSE THAT METHOD ONLY WORKS IN A
CLASSROOM...WELL THE ANSWER IS LIGHT WINDS + CLEAR SKIES + DRY AIR!
THAT'LL ALL BE IN PLACE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING LEADING TO
WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE 30S WITH SOME UPPER 20S UP NORTH (AND 40S
RIGHT ALONG THE COAST). THIS MEANS THAT A LIGHT FREEZE IS EXPECTED
FOR PORTIONS OF THE PINEY WOODS AND THE BRAZOS VALLEY. SINCE WE'VE
HAD SPRINGLIKE TEMPERATURES FOR QUITE A WHILE, SOME GREENUP HAS
OCCURRED...AND I'M SURE MANY OF YOU HAVE ALREADY BEGUN PLANTING
CROPS/FLOWERS/PLANTS AS WELL. AS A RESULT, A FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THESE LOCATIONS FROM 1AM-9AM TUESDAY MORNING. BE SURE TO
TAKE THE PROPER PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT VULNERABLE PLANTS FROM THESE
FREEZING CONDITIONS.
A RATHER ROBUST MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AROUND MIDWEEK. WE'LL GO ON A WARMING TREND THIS
WEEK AS WELL WITH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 70S BY MIDWEEK AND
APPROACHING THE UPPER 80S BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. PERFECT TIME
TO MENTION THAT THE SPRING EQUINOX IS ON THE MORNING OF FRIDAY,
MARCH 20TH. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH LOOKS TO EXPAND A TAD BIT
EASTWARD GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. COMBINE THAT WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES APPROACHING THE 99TH TO MAX PERCENTILE (NAEFS/GEFS),
WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE, AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR (PW VALUES AROUND OR LESS THAN 1"),
AND WE HAVE THE RECIPE FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THERE IS
POTENTIAL THAT WE COULD SEE OUR FIRST 90°F TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR
ON SATURDAY, BUT IT'S STILL A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO LOCK IT IN. AT THE
VERY LEAST, WE'LL BE NEAR OR IN RECORD-BREAKING TERRITORY. HERE'S A
FUN FACT ABOUT THE 90°F MARK THOUGH: THE AVERAGE FIRST 90°F DAY FOR
THE CITY OF HOUSTON IS MAY 6TH, BUT WE DID SEE A 90°F DAY IN MID
MARCH LAST YEAR!
BONUS NUGGET UPDATE//
---------------------
LASTLY, IF YOU'VE BEEN KEEPING UP WITH MY DISCUSSIONS THE PAST FEW
DAYS, YOU'LL REMEMBER THAT I TALKED ABOUT THE VERY LOW PROBABILITY
FOR SOME FROZEN PRECIPITATION (FLURRIES/GRAUPEL) IN FAR NORTHEASTERN
AREAS (EASTERN PINEY WOODS) LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. I GAVE IT A <5% PROBABILITY OF OCCURING WITHIN THAT REGION
AND SAID THAT IT WAS MUCH MORE PLAUSIBLE TO OUR NORTHEAST. WELL
WOULDN'T YA KNOW IT THAT THE MPING REPORT MAP WAS LIT UP WITH
GRAUPEL REPORTS EARLY THIS MORNING ALL ACROSS LOUISIANA! I KNOW IT'S
NOT TEXAS...BUT THERE WERE PLENTY OF REPORTS TO OUR NORTHEAST, SO
I'M GONNA COUNT THAT AS A WIN! I WILL DEFINITELY ENJOY A VICTORY
COOKIE TODAY! :)
ALSO DID YOU EVER IMAGINE THAT YOU'D SEE DISCUSSIONS ABOUT GRAUPEL
AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S ALL WITHIN THE SAME WEEK?! I SURE
DIDN'T! MOTHER NATURE CERTAINLY KEEPS US ON OUR TOES...
BATISTE
AVIATION
(12Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE STRONG GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS. GUSTS
THIS MORNING OVER 30 KNOTS HAVE BEEN COMMON, WITH AREAS NEAR THE
COAST GUSTING OVER 40 KNOTS. KGLS HAS GUSTED AS HIGH AS 50 KNOTS.
THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE TODAY. HOWEVER,
GUSTS OVER 30 KNOTS COULD OCCUR WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY THIS EVENING, BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT FOR MOST INLAND LOCATIONS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 208 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
ARE CONTINUING TO GRADUALLY DECREASE. WINDS AND SEAS AREN'T
EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW THE ADVISORY THRESHOLD TILL LATE TONIGHT,
SO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. PETSS GUIDANCE
REFLECTS LOW WATER CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING CURRENTLY IN GALVESTON
BAY WITH WATER LEVELS AROUND 1.0 TO 1.5 FEET BELOW MLLW PERSISTING
IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE BAY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, SO A LOW
WATER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. WINDS AND SEAS DECREASE
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS RETURN LATE TUESDAY
AND CONTINUE INTO THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
BATISTE
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 208 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS (GUSTS IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE) AND VERY DRY
AIR (MINIMUM RH VALUES AS LOW AS 15%) HAS LEAD TO ELEVATED TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY. THE TEXAS A&M FOREST
SERVICE HAS AREAS THE MAJORITY OF SOUTHEAST TX OUTLINED IN AN
EXTREME FIRE DANGER RATING (LEVEL 5 OUT OF 5) TODAY. THIS PERIOD
OF VERY DRY AIR AND GUSTY WINDS WILL DRY OUT FUELS, ESPECIALLY NOW
THAT THE SPRING GREENUP HAS ALREADY BEGUN. FUEL MOISTURE IS BE ON
A DECREASING TREND WITH 10 HR AND 1 HR FUEL MOISTURE HEADING
TOWARDS THE LOWER PERCENTILES TODAY.
AS A RESULT, A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF
SOUTHEAST TX THROUGH 7PM THIS EVENING. BE SURE TO PRACTICE FIRE
SAFETY AND AVOID ANY ACTIVITIES THAT COULD SPARK A FIRE AS THEY
COULD SPREAD RAPIDLY IN THESE CONDITIONS. DRIER AIR AND FUELS
STICK AROUND GOING INTO TUESDAY, BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER AND
SOUTHEASTERLY. RH VALUES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE MID WEEK INTO THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK AS ONSHORE WINDS PREVAIL AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RECOVERS.
BATISTE
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 31 64 42 77 / 0 0 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 36 63 47 76 / 0 0 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 46 60 54 70 / 0 0 0 0
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ163-164-176>179-
195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR TXZ163-164-
176>179-195>200-300.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ176>179-
195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR GMZ330-335.
LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ335.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR GMZ350-355-370-
375.
DISCUSSION...BATISTE
AVIATION...SELF
MARINE...BATISTE
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