333
FXUS64 KHGX 130318
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1018 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, HYDROLOGY
KEY MESSAGES
- THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED EARLY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY AROUND THE BRAZOS
VALLEY AND THE PINEY WOODS.
- INCREASINGLY SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE NEXT WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1018 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
WELL THAT ESCALATED QUICKLY...MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN LED TO
INSTANCES OF FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS GENERALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. AREAS FROM NORTHERN COLORADO
COUNTY THROUGH NORTHWESTERN HARRIS COUNTY RECEIVED 3-5+" OF RAINFALL
WITH RAINFALL RATES PEAKING ABOVE 4" PER HOUR AT TIMES. FOR MORE ON
TODAY'S RAINFALL AND ITS IMPACTS ON AREA STREAMS/RIVERS, SEE THE
HYDROLOGY DISCUSSION DOWN BELOW. THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAIRLY WORKED
OVER FOLLOWING THIS AFTERNOON'S CONVECTION, SO THE PROBABILITY OF
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN OF SIMILAR CALIBER OVERNIGHT ARE ON THE SLIM
SIDE. THAT BEING SAID, PW VALUES REMAIN ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE
(~1.53"). WITH ADDITIONAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH,
REMNANT BOUNDARIES LINGERING FROM EARLIER CONVECTION, A NEARBY
25-30 KT LLJ, AND ELEVATED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE,
WE CERTAINLY HAVE THE INGREDIENTS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVERNIGHT. THIS IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR NORTH OF THE BRAZOS
VALLEY/PINEY WOODS. WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR AND MODEL
TRENDS. AS I WRITE THIS (AROUND 10PM CDT), I'M LOOKING AT A
CLUSTER OF STORMS IN CENTRAL TEXAS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AND STORMS
JUST NORTHWEST OF THE BRAZOS VALLEY TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD. THE
HOPE IS THAT NORTHEASTWARD MOVING CONVECTION WORKS OVER THE
ENVIRONMENT BEFORE THE SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING CONVECTION MOVES IN TO
ALLOW FOR A QUIETER NIGHT FOR US. THAT WASN'T CONFUSING AT ALL TO
DESCRIBE!
AS A RESULT, THE FLOOD THREAT OVERNIGHT REMAINS RATHER CONDITIONAL
AS IT'LL DEPEND ON IF ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS ABLE TO MOVE INTO
OUR AREA. THE LATEST TRENDS OF THE CAMS KEEPS THE BULK OF THE
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF THE BRAZOS VALLEY, BUT
THEY'VE BEEN A BIT WISHY WASHY ON THE PLACEMENT OF CONVECTION
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS (EXCEPT RIGHT ALONG
THE COAST) AS A RESULT. JUST REMEMBER THAT THIS IS A CONDITIONAL
THREAT AS ALL OF THE FAVORABLE INGREDIENTS REMAIN IN PLACE. IT'S
JUST A MATTER OF IF CONVECTION MANAGES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AND
SUSTAIN ITSELF. SINCE CONFIDENCE IS NOT TOO HIGH ON THIS PLAYING
OUT, THE FLOOD WATCH FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS WAS CANCELLED EARLY. SOME
OF THE CAMS DO BRING SOME CONVECTION INTO THE BRAZOS VALLEY/PINEY
WOODS OVERNIGHT, SO THE CHANCES DEFINITELY AREN'T ZERO FOR
ISOLATED INSTANCES OF MINOR FLOODING.
GOING INTO THE WORK WEEK, WE REMAIN IN A PATTERN WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES BRINGING OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS AROUND MIDWEEK IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. MAY HAVE
TO WATCH FOR AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON AS IT COULD POTENTIALLY DRIFT EASTWARD INTO OUR
AREA. AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWEEPS THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS
AROUND MIDWEEK, IT WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS OFF OF A
DRY LINE OVER IN WESTERN TEXAS. IT'S NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR A FEW STORMS TO CLIP PORTIONS OF THE BRAZOS
VALLEY/PINEY WOODS, BUT THERE WILL BE A CAP THAT NEEDS TO BE
OVERCOME (ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY). PW VALUES BEGIN TO INCREASE
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS MOISTURE CONVERGES ALONG A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT STALLS OUT TO OUR NORTH, SO SOME ISOLATED
STREAMER SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SPEAKING OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES,
WE'RE MONITORING THE POTENTIAL FOR A COLD FRONT NEXT WEEKEND. NOW
IT'S TOO EARLY TO SAY IT'S A SURE THING ONE WAY OR THE OTHER...BUT
THE NBM TEMPERATURE ENVELOPE (E.G. ALL PERCENTILES) DO TREND
SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD SO THAT'S SOMETHING! WE CAN TAKE A LOOK AT THINGS
PROBABILISTICALLY AS WELL...THE PROBABILITY OF HIGH TEMPERATURES
BELOW 80 DEGREES INCREASES SHARPLY TO 60-90% RANGE IN THE LATTER
HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND. PLENTY OF TIME FOR THINGS TO CHANGE AND
EVOLVE, BUT THIS DOES LOOK TO BE OUR NEXT BEST CHANCE OF RAIN AS
WELL.
SPEAKING OF TEMPERATURES, THEY WILL GO A GRADUAL UPWARD TREND
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY MAINLY IN THE LOW 80S THEN
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY MIDWEEK AND SOLIDLY IN THE UPPER 80S BY
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. ISOLATED SPOTS REACHING THE 90 DEGREE MARK
AREN'T ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION EITHER TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOW
70S THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WE ALREADY DISCUSSED THE
POTENTIAL COLD FRONT IN THE PARAGRAPH ABOVE, SO WE'LL LET THAT SPEAK
FOR ITSELF EVEN THOUGH I'M SURE Y'ALL WOULDN'T BLAME ME IF WE TALKED
ABOUT IT TWICE! :)
BATISTE
AVIATION
(00Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
AS OF THIS EARLY EVENING, LATEST RADAR IMAGERY WAS SEEING MULTIPLE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PUSH IN FROM THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. CURRENTLY IMPACTS FROM THESE STORMS HAVE MOSTLY BEEN SEEN IN
OUR WESTERN AND NORTHERN TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT
A COUPLE OF STORMS HAVE MADE THERE WAY OVER THE HOUSTON AREA AND
CAUSED ISSUED FOR KIAH. IMPACTS FROM THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO
COME FROM MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WITH
VISIBILITY POTENTIALLY DROPPING DOWN TO 1 TO 2 MILES BRIEFLY. IN
THE NORTH, LATEST CAMS HAVE SUGGESTED THE POTENTIAL TO SEE STORMS
PRESENT AFTER THE MIDNIGHT TIME FRAME WITH OTHER AREAS SOUTH
LIKELY TO FINISHED CLOSER TO 03 TO 04Z. FROM THERE MVFR TO
POSSIBLY BRIEF IFR CIG ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS NOT LIKELY TILL MONDAY AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1018 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS (4-6 FT) PERSIST, SO
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY MORNING. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WEAKEN A BIT EARLY THIS WEEK,
BUT THERE MAY BE INTERMITTENT PERIODS WHERE CAUTION FLAGS MAY BE
NECESSARY. DUE TO THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW, SLIGHTLY ELEVATED
WATER LEVELS DURING HIGH TIDES REMAIN POSSIBLE. P-ETSS GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO REFLECT WATER LEVELS REACHING 2.5-3.0 FT ABOVE MLLW
DURING TIMES OF HIGH TIDE THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. WHILE
COASTAL FLOODING IS NOT A CONCERN AT THIS TIME, SOME WAVE RUN-UP IS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE ALONG GULF-FACING BEACHES ALONG WITH INCREASED
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.
BATISTE
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 1018 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
CLUSTERS OF STRONG STORMS BEGAN TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN COLORADO
COUNTY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND GRADUALLY DRIFTED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
INTO NORTHWESTERN HARRIS COUNTY. THESE STORMS WERE SLOW-MOVING AT
TIMES WITH RAINFALL RATES PEAKING ABOVE 4" PER HOUR IN THE HEAVIEST
DOWNPOURS. STORM TOTAL QPE SHOWS AN AXIS OF HIGH RAINFALL TOTALS
EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN COLORADO COUNTY TO SOUTHERN AUSTIN/WALLER
COUNTIES AND INTO NORTHEASTERN/NORTHERN HARRIS COUNTY. THE HIGHEST
RAINFALL TOTALS PEAKED IN THE 4-5" RANGE WITH THE WINNERS OF THE DAY
BEING 5.08" IN SOUTHERN WALLER COUNTY JUST NORTH OF PATTISON AND
5.34" IN NORTHWESTERN HARRIS COUNTY NEAR JERSEY VILLAGE. THIS LED TO
INSTANCES OF STREET FLOODING ACROSS THIS CORRIDOR WITH NUMEROUS
REPORTS (PICTURES, IMAGES, ETC.) SENT IN. THANKFULLY, THERE WERE NO
REPORTS OF FLOOD WATERS ENTERING ANY HOMES OR STRUCTURES.
THIS HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO LED TO ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLOOD GAUGES
REACHING, OR EXPECTED TO REACH, ACTION STAGE. LANGHAM CREEK AT
ADDICKS IS ALREADY IN ACTION STAGE THIS EVENING. BEDIAS CREEK AT
MADISONVILLE, DAVIDSON CREEK AT LYONS, AND THE LAVACA RIVER AT
HALLETTSVILLE ARE ALL FORECAST TO CREST IN ACTION STAGE OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. SOME OF THESE FORECASTS ARE BASED OFF OF QPF, SO THE
FORECAST MAY CHANGE BASED ON RADAR/MODEL TRENDS. REMEMBER THAT YOU
CAN MONITOR UPDATED RIVER FORECASTS VIA THE NWS NWPS WEBPAGE
(HTTPS://WATER.NOAA.GOV/).
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF RAINFALL OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS, THIS IS MOST LIKELY
TO OCCUR OVER THE BRAZOS VALLEY/PINEY WOODS WHICH IS WELL NORTH OF
THE AXIS OF HIGH RAINFALL TOTALS. ISOLATED INSTANCES OF MINOR
FLOODING CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT THOUGH. THE FLOOD WATCH
WAS CANCELLED SINCE CONFIDENCE ISN'T HIGH ON THIS OCCURRENCE.
BATISTE
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 69 83 68 85 / 60 20 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 71 83 70 85 / 30 20 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 72 78 72 79 / 20 10 0 10
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 7 AM CDT MONDAY FOR
GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.
DISCUSSION...BATISTE
AVIATION...SELF
MARINE...BATISTE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page