627
FXUS64 KHGX 160007
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
707 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 90S THURSDAY/FRIDAY.
- NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG
A COLD FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE POSSIBLE WHICH COULD LEAD TO INSTANCES OF FLOODING OF URBAN,
LOW-LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
- SEASONAL CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT GOING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WHILE A STEADY
SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW PERSISTS BETWEEN RIDGING
OVER THE GULF AND A TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL AID IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW OF
THESE SHOWERS/STORMS COULD CLIP OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN/NORTHERN
ZONES (INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE BRAZOS VALLEY AND PINEY WOODS)
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, WHERE WE WILL MAINTAIN LOW
POPS BETWEEN 10-30%. THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN
RAIN-FREE FOR THE MOST PART, THOUGH A FEW SPRINKLES OR A VERY
ISOLATED SHOWER CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT THROUGH THIS EVENING.
VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LIFT IS INDICATED FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, SO RAIN CHANCES REMAIN BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS (<=10
PERCENT) IN OUR FORECAST PRODUCTS FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS CONTINUING TO RANGE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S OVER MOST OF THE REGION AND DAYTIME HIGHS REACHING INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 80S OVER INTERIOR AREAS AND MOSTLY AROUND 80
DEGREES ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS ON
SATURDAY, AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT STILL LOOKS ON TRACK TO
PUSH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE ALONG THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT, WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO 1.75 TO 2
INCHES OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS PER SOME OF THE LATEST FORECAST MODEL
GUIDANCE. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP AND SPREAD OVER OUR AREA ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL BRING
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH RAINFALL
RATES POTENTIALLY PEAKING IN THE 2-3+" PER HOUR RANGE, WHICH COULD
LEAD TO FLOODING OF URBAN, LOW-LYING, AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL CONTINUES ON
SATURDAY FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 10. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO
SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY OVER COASTAL AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND
COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH LOWS FALLING BACK INTO THE 50S OVER
OUR CENTRAL/NORTHERN COUNTIES AND IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ALONG
THE COAST ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNING. HIGHS GENERALLY RANGE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S ON SUNDAY AND IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S BY
MONDAY. ANOTHER SERIES OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY BRING A CONTINUED LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
ANOTHER PERSISTENCE FORECAST WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND BREEZY
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS PREVAILING THOUGH SUNSET. WINDS BEGIN TO
DECREASE AFTER SUNSET (DOWN TO AROUND 5-8KT INLAND, NEAR 10-15KT
AT THE COAST) WITH MVFR CIGS (1500-2500FT) RETURNING AROUND
5-6Z THAT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS ON
THURSDAY. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD AROUND 11-13Z WHERE CIGS
WILL LOWER TO IFR LEVELS (DOWN TO AROUND 700FT) NEAR CXO AND UTS,
BUT WILL RETURN TO MVFR-LEVELS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING. CIGS WILL SCATTER OUT TO VFR ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN
16-18Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS 10-15KT (AND SOME HIGHER GUSTS) RETURN
ACROSS THE REGION BY THE LATE MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. ISOLATED LIGHT STREAMER SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS, BUT WILL BE
TOO ISOLATED TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.
WINDS WILL AGAIN DECREASE AFTER SUNSET, AND A RETURN TO MVFR
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
FOWLER
MARINE
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
A MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY OVER BAYS AND NEAR SHORE WATERS WHERE WINDS
REMAIN ELEVATED BETWEEN 15-20 KNOTS. THE ELEVATED ONSHORE FLOW
WILL KEEP WATER LEVELS ELEVATED, WITH VALUES UP TO 2.5 TO 3.0
FEET ABOVE MLLW AROUND TIMES OF HIGH TIDE CYCLES OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME WAVE RUN-UP ALONG GULF-FACING
BEACHES ALONG WITH A CONTINUED INCREASED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS. A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. STRONG
OFFSHORE WIND FLOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE PASSING COLD FRONT LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BECOME NECESSARY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 68 87 67 88 / 10 0 0 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 70 87 69 86 / 0 10 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 73 80 73 79 / 10 10 0 0
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.
DISCUSSION...LINDSEY
AVIATION...FOWLER
MARINE...LINDSEY
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