946
FXUS64 KHGX 161109
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
609 AM CDT THU APR 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 90S THURSDAY/FRIDAY.
- NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG
A COLD FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE POSSIBLE WHICH COULD LEAD TO INSTANCES OF MINOR FLOODING OF
URBAN, LOW-LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
- MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOLLOWING THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.
- SEASONAL CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT GOING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
MORE OF THE SAME THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
KEEP THE UNSEASONABLY WARM, MOIST CONDITIONS IN PLACE. AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S INLAND AND UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S ALONG THE COAST. COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
INCREASED MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO VERY ISOLATED, LIGHT STREAMER
SHOWERS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS - BUT, THE
OVERALL CHANCE FOR A SPECIFIC LOCATION TO GET A LIGHT SHOWER IS
<10%. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S INLAND AND UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ALONG THE COAST.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
SATURDAY WILL START OUT SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS (WARM,
MUGGY), BUT WE ARE EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS INCREASE IN ACTIVITY WILL BE DUE A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AND A WEAK PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH THAT MOVES OVERHEAD. MOISTURE IS ANTICIPATED TO
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH PWATS UP TO AROUND 1.75-2", SO
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF OR ALONG THE
COLD FRONT MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
RAINFALL RATES UP TO 2-3" PER HOUR. WPC HAS PLACED AREAS ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-10 IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL. IF ANY OF THESE HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OVER A LOW-
LYING SPOT OR AREA OF POOR DRAINAGE, THEN MINOR STREET FLOODING OR
PONDING MAY OCCUR. COASTAL SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING AS MOISTURE LINGERS BEHIND THE FROPA. BREEZY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.
COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN
INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RETURN
BY LATE MONDAY, SO AN INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED BY
MID-WEEK. RAIN CHANCES RETURN MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK AS UPPER-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
FOWLER
AVIATION
(12Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 604 AM CDT THU APR 16 2026
MVFR CIGS ARE ONGOING AT MOST TERMINALS THIS MORNING, THOUGH IFR
CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR CXO, IAH, AND SGR. HAVE GENERALLY
INCLUDED IFR CIGS (EITHER PREVAILING OR TEMPOS) FROM SGR/IAH
NORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. CIGS WILL RISE TO VFR BY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH BREEZY SSE WINDS. CIGS WILL ONCE AGAIN DROP TO MVFR
LATER TONIGHT.
YOUNG
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
ONSHORE FLOW OF AROUND 10-15KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT NEAR
THE COAST WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BECAUSE OF THE
EXPECTED GUSTS TO NEAR 20KT, SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
IN THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS ON THURSDAY. ANOTHER LOWERING OF
THE WINDS IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING, BUT
INCREASE AGAIN TO 15-20KT FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE 2-4FT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT,
WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLY LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE COLD
FRONT WILL USHER IN STRONG NORTHEASTERLY TO EAST-NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS (20-25KT WITH GUSTS TO 30KT) SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
EVENING. THIS WILL CAUSE SEAS TO BUILD TO 5-8FT WITH OCCASIONAL
SEAS TO 10FT IN THE WATERS BEYOND 40NM. EASTERLY WINDS AROUND
15-20KT WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY WITH 4-6FT SEAS CONTINUING INTO
MIDWEEK.
THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED TIDE LEVELS
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGH TIDES RISING TO AROUND 3.0FT ABOVE
MLLW. MODERATE TO STRONG RIP CURRENTS ALONG GULF-FACING BEACHES
WILL ALSO BE LIKELY.
FOWLER
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 88 67 87 69 / 0 0 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 88 70 85 71 / 0 0 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 80 73 79 75 / 0 0 0 0
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
GMZ330-335-350-355.
DISCUSSION...FOWLER
AVIATION...YOUNG
MARINE...FOWLER
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