234
FXUS64 KHGX 021131
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
631 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE BAYS AND GULF THROUGH MIDDAY
TODAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE VERY HAZARDOUS FOR MARINERS.
- WARMING CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S/80S.
- A DRY LINE AND COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING SHOWERS/STORMS
ACROSS THE REGION, SOME STRONG STORMS AND DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
WITH THE COLD FRONT OFF THE COAST, SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH EARLY
THIS MORNING AS COOLER, DRIER AIR WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE REGION.
STRONG WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE COAST EARLY IN THE MORNING
WITH GALE WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR THE BAYS AND COASTAL WATERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE COOL EARLY IN THE DAY WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 40S/LOWER 60S. WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY EASE DOWN THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. SKIES WILL ALSO
CLEAR, ALLOWING HIGHS TO REACH THE THE MID/LOWER 70S.
SUNDAY WILL START OUT FAIRLY COOL WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE
UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S INLAND AND MID 50S/60S ACROSS THE COAST AND
HOUSTON METRO. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA DURING
THE DAYTIME, CAUSING WINDS ACROSS THE AREA TO SHIFT EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY. A SMALL SHORTWAVE IS ANTICIPATED TO PUSH OVER THE
AREA EARLY IN THE DAY, THOUGH THE DRIER CONDITIONS, LOWER PWS AND
SFC HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN THE VICINITY WILL MAKE RAIN UNLIKELY. A
FEW HIGHER CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP, BUT OTHERWISE CONDITIONS WILL BE
BENIGN. ONSHORE FLOW WILL ENABLE WAA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH
HIGHS ON SUNDAY REACHING THE 70S/LOWER 80S.
MONDAY SHOULD START OFF A TAD WARMER EARLY IN THE MORNING WITH LOWS
IN THE 50S/60S INLAND AND LOWER 70S ALONG THE COASTLINE. ONSHORE
FLOW WILL FACILITATE MOISTURE RETURN WITH PWS CLIMBING TO 1.0-1.4
INCHES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN
LARGER CLOUD COVER, THOUGH AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE FORECASTED TO REACH
THE UPPER 70S/MID 80S THANKS TO STEADY WAA. SOME WEAK IMPULSES
EMBEDDED IN NW FLOW ALOFT COULD BRING A BRIEF SHOWER OR TWO, THOUGH
RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOW FOR MONDAY.
TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARM AND BENIGN DAY WEATHER WISE. LOWS IN
THE MORNING WILL BE WARM, ONLY DROPPING INTO THE MID 60S/LOWER 70S
WITH CLOUDY SKIES OVERHEAD. CLOUD COVER SCATTERS OUT IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS FORECASTED TO REACH THE UPPER 70S/UPPER 80S.
RAIN CHANCES MAY BE LOW NOW, BUT SHOULD BE ON THE RISE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES SE TEXAS.
ON WEDNESDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE
ROCKIES/PLAINS. MODELS ARE SHOWING A DRY LINE DEVELOPING OVER
CENTRAL TEXAS WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT FURTHER TO THE NORTH.
TIMING THESE FEATURES SO FAR OUT IS A TAD DIFFICULT GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY, BUT THE COMBINATION OF THE DRY LINE PUSHING IN FROM THE
WEST AND THE COLD FRONT REINFORCING/OVERTAKING IT FROM THE NORTH
SHOULD HELP BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY INTO
THE EVENING. FORECAST MODELS SHOW DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE REGION WITH
PWS FOR 1.5-2.0 INCHES WITH A 25-35 KNOT LLJ EARLY IN THE DAY. EVEN
THOUGH BETTER FORCING WILL KEEP NORTH OF OUR AREA, STRONGER STORMS
AND HEAVIER DOWNPOURS WILL STILL POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT WEDNESDAY.
COOLER, DRIER AND BREEZY WEATHER DEVELOP ON THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY WITH
WINDS SHIFTING ONSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON, INITIATING A WARMING
TREND YET AGAIN.
03
AVIATION
(12Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 602 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 8-12KT WITH GUSTS TO 20-25KT
(OCCASIONALLY HIGHER AT THE COAST) WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON, THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BEGIN TONIGHT AND
PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
FOWLER
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF EARLY THIS MORNING. STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED EARLY TODAY, AROUND 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
AROUND 40 TO 45 KNOTS POSSIBLE. SEAS MAY REACH 8 TO 13 FEET. A GALE
WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
DECREASE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THOUGH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
COULD BE NEEDED DURING THIS PERIOD IF CONDITIONS ARE SLOW TO
IMPROVE. LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS RETURN SUNDAY, INCREASING
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK, LIKELY PROMPTING CAUTION FLAGS AT
TIMES. SHOWERS AND STORMS AS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. ANTICIPATE STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS WITH ANOTHER
PERIOD OF POTENTIAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.
03
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
AS FAR AS THE RIVERS GO, RISES TO ACTION STAGE ARE FORECAST BUT
CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT ISOLATED INSTANCES OF MINOR FLOOD STAGE
DEPENDING ON WHERE THE MOST RAINFALL ACCUMULATES. REMEMBER THAT YOU
CAN MONITOR UPDATED RIVER FORECASTS VIA THE NWS NWPS WEBPAGE
(HTTPS://WATER.NOAA.GOV/) AND AS ALWAYS DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH ANY
FLOODED ROADWAYS. TURN AROUND, DON'T DROWN.
KLG
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 74 50 78 56 / 0 0 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 75 55 80 60 / 0 0 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 76 67 77 70 / 0 0 0 0
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ330-335-350-
355-370-375.
DISCUSSION...03
AVIATION...FOWLER
MARINE...03
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