135
FXUS64 KHGX 061148
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
648 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A CONDITIONAL THREAT REMAINS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS (TORNADOES CANNOT BE
RULED OUT) TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
HIGHWAY 105 CORRIDOR.
- POST-FRONTAL CONDITIONS WILL MAINTAIN NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH A LIKELY CHANCE OF 1-1.5
INCHES OF RAIN AREAWIDE BY MONDAY.
- DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
A RELATIVELY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AS WE SIT FIRMLY IN THE PATHWAY OF SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. THIS FLOW IS POSITIONED
BETWEEN BROAD TROUGHING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT PLAINS AND BROAD
RIDGING ACROSS MEXICO INTO PARTS OF THE GULF. ALL OF THIS FLOW IS
BEING AMPLIFIED (IN-PART) BY A SLOWLY-MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
SET TO MOVE ACROSS THE BAJA PENINSULA. THIS, IN COMBINATION WITH
LIFT FROM AN INCOMING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY, WILL PRESENT A SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE SPATIOTEMPORAL WINDOW
FOR CONVECTION ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL TEXAS INTO DEEP EAST TEXAS.
THE "SOMEWHAT" COMES INTO PLAY DUE TO A PERSISTENTLY DRY 700-850MB
LAYER THAT WILL SET A SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE THRESHOLD (OR CAP)
AGAINST THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH-RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE PICKS UP ON THIS CAP WITH A RATHER PALTRY CONVECTIVE
DISTRIBUTION, HOWEVER, ANY STORMS THAT CAN GET THROUGH THE CAP
WILL STILL HAVE SOME INGREDIENTS TO WORK WITH (2500+ J/KG OF CAPE,
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7-7.5 C/KM, AND 30-40+ KTS. OF BULK WIND
SHEAR). LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADO THREATS REMAIN ON
THE TABLE AS A RESULT.
BEYOND THIS UPCOMING WINDOW FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE NEXT 24-36
HOURS, POST-FRONTAL ISENTROPIC UPLIFT WILL BE THE MAIN CONVECTIVE
THEME AND SOURCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STILL SLOWLY APPROACHING WEST TEXAS BY
FRIDAY, IT WILL INJECT OVERRUNNING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH
VORTICITY TO INSTIGATE MORE WIDESPREAD ROUNDS OF CONVECTION INTO
SATURDAY AND MAKE THIS THE WETTEST TIME PERIOD IN THE CURRENT
FORECAST RANGE. WPC DAY 1-7 QPF FORECASTS OF 1-1.5 INCHES ARE
MOSTLY FROM THIS ROUND OF RAINFALL. LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
DRIER AND WARMER PERIOD (TEMPERATURE MAXIMUMS/MINIMUMS IN THE
MID-TO-UPPER 80S/UPPER 60S) BY MONDAY AS THE NEXT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ARRIVES AND THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FINALLY WEAKENS AND
SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO LOUISIANA.
CASSEL
AVIATION
(12Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH CIGS BETWEEN 700-1500FT WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE MID-MORNING, THEN BECOME PREDOMINATELY MVFR WITH
POCKETS OF VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON (BKN TO SCT AT 2000FT).
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO POP-UP LATER THIS
MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. AREAS NORTH OF I-10 AND
EAST OF I-45 WILL HAVE THE BEST (ALTHOUGH STILL LOW) CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON, SO HAVE INCLUDED A PROB30 TS FOR
UTS, CXO, AND IAH. COVERAGE OF THE TS WILL END THIS EVENING, BUT
ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY PERSIST ALONG THE COAST INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. IFR CONDITIONS WITH CIGS DOWN TO 600FT AND PATCHY FOG ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL BEGINNING AROUND 3-8Z THIS EVENING AND
PERSIST INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON, BUT A
WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL
WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST THEN NORTH THIS EVENING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH.
FOWLER
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
ONSHORE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN SOME BRIEF ACTIVITY FOR SEAS WITH LIGHT
TO MODERATE SWELLS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AHEAD OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. ONCE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY,
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MORE LIKELY (30-50% CHANCE OF
DEVELOPMENT), ESPECIALLY BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. POST-FRONTAL
NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THE
THRESHOLD REQUIRING ISSUANCE OF A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY, HOWEVER,
WIND SPEEDS COULD STILL EXCEED 20 KTS. OVERNIGHT THURSDAY FURTHER
OFFSHORE INTO THE GULF. LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ANOTHER
CHANCE OF POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OFFSHORE BEGINNING
LATER ON SUNDAY.
CASSEL
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 84 65 74 62 / 30 20 0 40
HOUSTON (IAH) 86 70 78 66 / 50 10 20 40
GALVESTON (GLS) 83 75 81 72 / 10 10 40 40
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CASSEL
AVIATION...FOWLER
MARINE...CASSEL
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