088
FXUS64 KHGX 062320
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
620 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH TODAY, BRINGING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS AND COOLER CONDITIONS IN ITS WAKE.
- RISK OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL INCREASING FRIDAY-SATURDAY. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR THE RISK OF LOCALIZED FLOODING.
- DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH THE CWA TODAY, BRINGING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ROUGHLY ALONG AND BEHIND THE
FRONTAL AXIS. COOL, NORTHERLY BREEZES SIGNAL A MODERATE CAA
REGIME IN THE FRONT'S WAKE. SOME OF OUR NORTHERN MOST COMMUNITIES
HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 60S AFTER BRIEFLY PEAKING NEAR 80 JUST
BEFORE MIDDAY. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWARD, EVENTUALLY
HELPING TO REPLACE THE WARM, HUMID 80-85 DEGREE AIR TO ITS SOUTH
WITH A NOT AS HUMID AIR MASS W/ TEMPS IN THE 60S AND 70S. THE
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE CONTINUES TO LOOKED CAPPED AS OF WRITING
THIS AFD. BUT HIGH PWATS COUPLED WITH SFC FRONTAL FORCINGS HAVE
BEEN ENOUGH TO SPARK SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION.
IF WE CAN OVERCOME THE CAP, THEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD TRY TO
TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE HIGHLY SHEERED VERTICAL WIND PROFILE,
YIELDING TO A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. BUT THE FORCE IS STRONG
WITH THE CAP, AND IT MAY PREVENT US FROM SEEING ANY SEVERE WEATHER
TODAY. THAT BEING SAID, THE RADAR WILL WARRANT OUR CLOSE ATTENTION
JUST IN CASE A STORM OR TWO DECIDES TO GET FEISTY.
MEANWHILE TO OUR WEST, WE CONTINUE TO WATCH A MID/UPPER
LOW/TROUGH. THE SYSTEM HAS ASSUMED A POSITIVE TILT STRUCTURE WITH
AN AXIS STRETCHING FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TO BAJA
CALIFORNIA. 500MB RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS MORE OF TROUGH THAN A
CLOSED LOW. BUT ML WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS A CLOSED LOW WITH
BOUNTIFUL VORTICITY EXISTS NEAR NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA.
GUIDANCE HAS GENERALLY TRENDED SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM'S EASTWARD
PROGRESSION. THAT HAS RESULTED IN A DOWNWARD TREND IN THURSDAY'S
POPS. FRIDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK ACTIVE WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. BUT THE SLOWER PROGRESSION OF
THE SYSTEM ALSO MEANS THAT SATURDAY'S POPS HAVE BEEN ON THE RISE.
AS THE LOW APPROACHES, THE MID/UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY SHEARED AND DIFFLUENT. IN ADDITION, PWATS WILL BE ON
THE RISE, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MAY PULL NORTHWARD. DESPITE BECOMING INCREASINGLY
DIFFUSE, THE BOUNDARY MAY STILL PROVIDE A FOCAL FOR CONVERGENCE
AND ADDITIONAL LIFT. THE RISK OF LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS INCREASING DURING THE FRIDAY-SATURDAY TIME FRAME.
PWATS AT THE COAST ARE LOOKING PARTICULARLY HIGH, ESPECIALLY IF
THE ECMWF, ECMWF ENSEMBLES, AND AI ECMWF ENSEMBLES HAVE ANYTHING
TO SAY ABOUT IT (POSSIBLY OVER 2.0 INCHES). ENSEMBLE MEAN QPF
GENERALLY PEAKS IN THE 2-3 INCH RANGE. BUT DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY MUCH HEAVIER TOTALS, POSSIBLY OVER
5-6 INCHES. COULD NOT RULE OUT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK. BUT
THE PRIMARY CONCERN FRIDAY-SATURDAY WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.
POPS SHOULD LOWER AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. A DEEP TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTHWARD OVER E CONUS
WHILE A RIDGE BUILDS TO OUR WEST. THE CURRENT OUTLOOK FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK FEATURES SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS, MUGGY CONDITIONS, AND
DECREASING POPS. BUT LONG RANGE GUIDANCE DOES LOOK A BIT NW FLOW
PATTERN 'ISH' FOR NEXT WEEK. SO IT'S PROBABLY WORTH MONITORING
POSSIBLE DEEP CONVECTION INDUCING DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT
NEXT WEEK GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR.
SELF
AVIATION
(00Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT MOST TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO
A MIXTURE OF CLOUD CEILINGS AND HAZE FROM THE SMOKE OF
AGRICULTURAL BURNS DOWN IN MEXICO. A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR CEILINGS
IS POSSIBLE FOR CLL/UTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
BEHIND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY, BUT EXPECT AT LEAST MVFR CEILINGS TO
FILL BACK IN AREAWIDE LATER THIS EVENING. AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHES THROUGH (OFFSHORE BY 04Z), WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO
NORTHEASTERLY GENERALLY AROUND 8-12 KT WITH HIGHER WINDS ALONG THE
COAST. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR IFR CEILINGS ON THURSDAY MORNING MAINLY
BETWEEN THE 11Z-15Z TIMEFRAME, BUT THESE DECREASED CEILINGS COULD
LINGER LONGER CLOSER TO THE COAST. IFR CEILING POTENTIAL DECREASES
AFTER 15Z, BUT MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER AT LBX/GLS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS
ARE ANTICIPATED TO RETURN BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECTING A
RETURN OF MVFR CEILINGS GOING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING.
SOME SPORADIC LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY,
ESPECIALLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-10. THE POTENTIAL IS TOO LOW
(~20%) TO INCLUDE IN ANY OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
BATISTE
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
LOW CLOUDS, HAZE, WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS, AND LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW EXPECTED TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
OFFSHORE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT, SHIFTING THE WINDS TO A MORE
NORTH TO NORTHEAST DIRECTION. WINDS MAY INCREASE SOMEWHAT BEHIND
THE FRONT, POSSIBLY REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA (~20
KNOTS) OVER THE GULF. WINDS SHOULD VEER BACK TO THE EAST THEN
SOUTHEAST FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
POSSIBLE TODAY AND THURSDAY. THERE'S A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE SYSTEM
DEPARTS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, WITH POSSIBLY ANOTHER PERIOD OF
ENHANCE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ON MONDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 62 74 64 76 / 20 10 40 70
HOUSTON (IAH) 66 78 68 78 / 40 20 30 80
GALVESTON (GLS) 72 80 74 81 / 20 30 40 80
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SELF
AVIATION...BATISTE
MARINE...SELF
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